Mark Anthony

@Markanthrodr

Walnut Creek and Guadalajara

Joined May 2021

301 Following

53 Followers

59 Posts

Markanthrodr retweeted

Loofy

@Loofyb0i

about 1 month ago

Scott Bessent spent 20 years at Soros betting against governments that destroyed their own economies. Now he IS the US government's economic policy. 56-min and you'll understand every major macro decision coming out of Washington in 2026 bookmark - the most interesting Treasury Secretary interview in a decade

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Markanthrodr retweeted

León Barrena Rodríguez & Partners LLP

@lbrglobal

about 2 months ago

As we predicted, the structural vulnerabilities of the North American energy ecosystem are starting to fracture the Mexican energy market. According to a core report by El Financiero, government-mandated price caps have triggered fuel shortages across 11 Mexican states. Columnist Atzayaelh Torres highlights that the voluntary pricing pact has shattered because Pemex imports a considerable amount of the nation's fuel and cannot absorb a 50% spike in maritime freight costs alongside soaring global spot prices while pump prices remain frozen. Consequently, Mexico's domestic buffer has evaporated: Reynosa's storage has hit absolute zero, and the Valley of Mexico has just three days of inventory (violating the country's five-day legal safety minimum). This hand-to-mouth existence means redirecting supply to patch an emergency in Monclova instantly causes shortages in Saltillo. To survive, 4 out of 10 service stations have abandoned the pact, selling diesel above the mandated limit to avoid bankruptcy. This domestic paralysis is colliding with a looming wall of U.S. protectionism, invalidating Pemex’s long-term supply contracts with American refineries. If the Trump administration shifts to export restrictions to safeguard domestic inventory, triggered once SPR drawdowns end, U.S. tank bottoms occur, and Asian markets exhaust reserves to aggressively resume crude buying, these contracts will become legally and logistically impossible to fulfill. Facing its own inventory crisis, Washington will prioritize domestic price stability and cut its southern neighbor loose, leaving Pemex completely stranded from its primary refining lifeline. Globally, HFI Research warns we have crossed a "point of no return," exposing a massive disconnect between Wall Street consensus and physical reality. While JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley wishfully assume the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June to keep oil around $100/bbl through year-end (with JPM admitting the Strait must open to avoid hitting a global tank bottom) geopolitical anchoring prevents a diplomatic resolution. The physical market cannot be resolved with optimism: May’s implied global oil flow averaged a staggering deficit of -7.5 million b/d (driven by a 12 million b/d production shut-in, offset by a 2 million b/d demand loss and a 2.5 million b/d SPR release). Even a June 1 resolution guarantees delays, as ballast tankers are currently in the U.S. draining excess storage, pushing any meaningful production restart to August at the earliest. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol recently confirmed that their last emergency oil release burned through a massive 20% of total collective stocks. While the IEA claims readiness for further action, the remaining 80% of reserves are thinly fragmented across 32 nations, and most of Europe has already fallen dangerously below its mandatory 90-day inventory floor. For Mexico, these compounding global and regional pressures converge into an imminent economic reckoning. Stranded without a domestic inventory cushion and structurally cut off from its American refining lifeline, the country faces a systemic supply cliff that no amount of political rhetoric can bridge. As the U.S. pivots inward to hoard its remaining stocks and the global market fights over the IEA's fragmented reserves, Pemex will be forced to compete for prohibitively expensive international spot cargoes: a high-stakes game it fundamentally lacks the liquidity to play. Mexico is now looking at a systemic transportation paralysis, cascading industrial supply chain disruptions, and severe inflationary shocks on basic goods. The country is rapidly accelerating toward a hard floor where the illusion of subsidized energy sovereignty completely shatters against the unyielding physical reality of an empty tank.

$lbrglobal's tweet photo. As we predicted, the structural vulnerabilities of the North American energy ecosystem are starting to fracture the Mexican energy market. According to a core report by El Financiero, government-mandated price caps have triggered fuel shortages across 11 Mexican states. Columnist Atzayaelh Torres highlights that the voluntary pricing pact has shattered because Pemex imports a considerable amount of the nation's fuel and cannot absorb a 50% spike in maritime freight costs alongside soaring global spot prices while pump prices remain frozen. Consequently, Mexico's domestic buffer has evaporated: Reynosa's storage has hit absolute zero, and the Valley of Mexico has just three days of inventory (violating the country's five-day legal safety minimum). This hand-to-mouth existence means redirecting supply to patch an emergency in Monclova instantly causes shortages in Saltillo. To survive, 4 out of 10 service stations have abandoned the pact, selling diesel above the mandated limit to avoid bankruptcy. This domestic paralysis is colliding with a looming wall of U.S. protectionism, invalidating Pemex’s long-term supply contracts with American refineries. If the Trump administration shifts to export restrictions to safeguard domestic inventory, triggered once SPR drawdowns end, U.S. tank bottoms occur, and Asian markets exhaust reserves to aggressively resume crude buying, these contracts will become legally and logistically impossible to fulfill. Facing its own inventory crisis, Washington will prioritize domestic price stability and cut its southern neighbor loose, leaving Pemex completely stranded from its primary refining lifeline. Globally, HFI Research warns we have crossed a "point of no return," exposing a massive disconnect between Wall Street consensus and physical reality. While JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley wishfully assume the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June to keep oil around $100/bbl through year-end (with JPM admitting the Strait must open to avoid hitting a global tank bottom) geopolitical anchoring prevents a diplomatic resolution. The physical market cannot be resolved with optimism: May’s implied global oil flow averaged a staggering deficit of -7.5 million b/d (driven by a 12 million b/d production shut-in, offset by a 2 million b/d demand loss and a 2.5 million b/d SPR release). Even a June 1 resolution guarantees delays, as ballast tankers are currently in the U.S. draining excess storage, pushing any meaningful production restart to August at the earliest. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol recently confirmed that their last emergency oil release burned through a massive 20% of total collective stocks. While the IEA claims readiness for further action, the remaining 80% of reserves are thinly fragmented across 32 nations, and most of Europe has already fallen dangerously below its mandatory 90-day inventory floor. For Mexico, these compounding global and regional pressures converge into an imminent economic reckoning. Stranded without a domestic inventory cushion and structurally cut off from its American refining lifeline, the country faces a systemic supply cliff that no amount of political rhetoric can bridge. As the U.S. pivots inward to hoard its remaining stocks and the global market fights over the IEA's fragmented reserves, Pemex will be forced to compete for prohibitively expensive international spot cargoes: a high-stakes game it fundamentally lacks the liquidity to play. Mexico is now looking at a systemic transportation paralysis, cascading industrial supply chain disruptions, and severe inflationary shocks on basic goods. The country is rapidly accelerating toward a hard floor where the illusion of subsidized energy sovereignty completely shatters against the unyielding physical reality of an empty tank.$