much

__?

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC 💪

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC One arm with full range of motion 💪

Hard work 👏

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC Congratulations. Outstanding progress💪

[Dami-Defi @DamiDefi]

https://t.co/ksvC4bKpZ7

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.

Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:

Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."

He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.

Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.

BUT IT DIDN'T

Those promises are now officially broken.

The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.

Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.

Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.

But that's not even the worst part.

Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.

What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.

How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.

Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:

Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?

WRONG

Dig into the actual filing:

The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."

They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.

GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.

Let me put that in perspective:

3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.

All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...

3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.

So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.

The math doesn't work.

They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.

The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:

Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).

They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.

Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.

Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.

And here's what really kills the bull case...

The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:

Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.

That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.

And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.

Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.

Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.

The stock is $387.

So what exactly are you paying for?

You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.

I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.

And I am telling you:

Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.

THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

[George Noble @gnoble79]

This is one of the most shameless displays of financial gaslighting I've seen in 45 YEARS.

This week Blue Owl Capital disclosed that investors demanded 41% of their money back from one fund and 22% from another.

$5.4 BILLION in total redemption requests in a single quarter.

Blue Owl's response? They capped withdrawals at 5%.

Meaning if you had $1 million in Blue Owl's tech fund, you asked for $410,000 back, and they gave you $50,000.

Then they put out a LinkedIn post blaming "heightened negative sentiment" and insisting their fund performance is "robust."

That's like a restaurant blaming Yelp reviews while the kitchen is on fire.

Here's what they don't want you to focus on:

70% of Blue Owl's lending book is concentrated in software companies. They admitted this on their own earnings call.

These are the exact businesses most at risk of being disrupted or destroyed by AI.

And when the Wall Street Journal investigated further, they found Blue Owl's flagship fund reported 11.6% software exposure in public filings. The Journal's own analysis found it was actually closer to 21%.

That's not just a rounding error...

The timeline tells you everything:

In February, Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in loans to meet redemptions. They claimed 99.7 cents on the dollar.

Sounds great right?

Except one of the buyers was Kuvare - an insurance company whose asset management arm Blue Owl ACQUIRED for $750 million in 2024. Blue Owl manages their money.

They sold assets to a company they control and called it an arm's length transaction.

Barclays downgraded the stock. Shareholders filed a lawsuit. Congress is now demanding disclosures on sales practices, leverage, and risk management.

The stock hit a record low of $7.95 - down over 60% from its 52 week high.

And through all of this, Blue Owl's CEO went on the earnings call and said: "We don't have red flags. We don't have yellow flags. We actually have largely green flags."

$5.4 billion in redemption requests. 60% stock decline. Gated exits. Congressional scrutiny.

All green flags, apparently.

I've been warning about private credit for months.

The sales pitch was always the same: equity-like returns with bond-like stability. No volatility. No correlation to public markets. Safe. Predictable.

Except when investors actually want their money, they discover the exits are bolted shut.

You can't eliminate volatility. You can only HIDE it.

And that's exactly what Blue Owl has been doing - hiding risk behind opaque valuations, related-party transactions, and withdrawal gates.

This isn't "negative sentiment."

This is what happens when the tide goes out.

Are you listening?

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Wall Street is rewriting the rules of the S&P 500.

And that not to protect your retirement.

But to fast-track trillion-dollar money-losing AI companies into your portfolio.

Let me explain what's about to happen.

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public THIS YEAR.

Combined expected market cap: roughly $3 TRILLION.

SpaceX is targeting a June IPO at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. It merged with xAI in February and plans to raise up to $50 billion - the largest IPO in American history.

OpenAI is targeting Q4 2026. It just raised $110 billion at a $730 billion valuation from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia. It projects a $14 billion LOSS this year. It doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2029 or 2030. It trades at 65 times revenue.

Anthropic is valued at $380 billion. Also expected to list this year.

Now here's where it gets dangerous for passive investors:

From 2016 to 2025, the ENTIRE US IPO market raised $469 billion total. These 3 companies alone want to raise more than that in a single year.

But it gets WORSE.

S&P Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and FTSE Russell are ALL considering fast-track rules that would shove these companies into major indexes within DAYS of going public - bypassing the standard 12 month seasoning period.

Roughly $24 trillion in passive funds is tied to the S&P 500 alone. Those funds MUST buy whatever gets added.

So a company like OpenAI that's burning $14 billion a year, valued at 65x revenue, with no path to profitability for four years could become a mandatory holding in your 401k before it even reports a single quarterly earnings as a public company.

Nasdaq is proposing a "Fast Entry" rule: inclusion after just 15 trading days. SpaceX reportedly made early index inclusion a CONDITION of choosing Nasdaq over the NYSE.

The inmates are running the asylum.

Index providers aren't rewriting rules because these companies earned their place. They're rewriting rules because SpaceX is too big to ignore and too lucrative to lose to a competing exchange.

If all 10 of the largest venture-backed companies go public and get fast-tracked, their combined weight could reach 4.5% of the S&P 500 - more than the ENTIRE energy sector.

Think about that.

Companies that collectively lose billions per year could outweigh every oil and gas producer in America inside the most important retirement index on Earth.

This is the passive indexation trap I've been warning about.

You don't get to choose. You don't get to vote. The index committee decides, the ETFs execute, and your retirement savings follow orders.

When the index is being engineered to absorb trillion-dollar speculative bets, the smartest move is to stop blindly following it.

Own what you understand. Own what makes money. Own what's priced for reality, not fantasy.

GOT GOLD?

[Justin Bechler @1914ad]

https://t.co/DYhRALf0uH

[Justin Bechler @1914ad]

https://t.co/XIBBM7HqPs

[Gavin | Options Trading IQ @OptiontradinIQ]

How to spot the trap in other ETFs:

Any "3X" or "2X" leveraged product

Daily rebalancing language in prospectus

High expense ratios (0.95%+)

Warnings about "not suitable for long-term holding"

They literally tell you it's a trap in the fine print.

[Fairplaygov @fairplaygov]

The full 30-minute discussion can be found here:
https://t.co/Wnb5V75N13

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC Been doing 3 sets 1 min on/off at end of gym session. Good for push-up rep gains + triceps

Same 🎵 thoughts 😝 … forever linked with push-ups now

Never attempted +3 mins although planning to shortly

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC Your posts 👍 as form on point👏

Training consistently is so important as often don’t ‘feel’ like turning up but in diary = ✅

[Nigel Owens MBE @Nigelrefowens]

Rugby is a game for all shapes and sizes. Depower the scrum anymore and you may as well watch a rugby league match.
It will destroy the community game if there is no place for your good old fashioned type of prop.
Keep meddling with the game and you will destroy it.

[much @market__maker]

‘It shows that the “Middle Class”—roughly 45% of the country—is actually the Working Poor. These are the families earning enough to lose their benefits but not enough to pay for childcare and rent. They are the ones trapped in the Valley of Death’

[much @market__maker]

‘We have created a system where the only way to survive is to be destitute enough to qualify for aid, or rich enough to ignore the cost. Everyone in the middle is being cannibalized. The rich know this… and they are increasingly opting out of the shared spaces:’

[Grant Williams @ttmygh]

If you read one thing today - hell, if you read one thing before the end of the year and deep into next, make it this stupendous piece of work by the annoyingly stupendous @profplum99

Share it with EVERYBODY you can

The term ‘required reading’ was invented for precisely this kind of work

Bravo, my friend 👏

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC Form 👏… during some body weight sessions leave push-ups until last. eg. 3 sets, 12 exercises, 1 min on, 10 sec off with last exercise Bring Sally Up: 1 min end set 1, 90 sec end set 2 & 2 min to finish. Hurts but feels good once done. https://t.co/akkaujjwNQ

[much @market__maker]

@Sabine_BC 👏 👏 👏