S.Koopman

Money Manager. Living from and for the #market. #Analyst, #trader, trainer, enthusiast. The market never sleeps! #FX, #Commodities, #Stocks & #Indices

[S.Koopman @Market_Overview]

@adir_13 Yes, as only the bear cannot be more than 700kg

[S.Koopman @Market_Overview]

@JacobALinker Always a good time to go to Israel!

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

It’s Monday, December 22, and imagine you are given a set of data, and you ask yourself: How do I make up a famine? This is the question I imagine the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee asked themselves in August when they declared that there was famine in the Gaza Strip.

According to @NuritBaytch, who released a letter yesterday, here’s how they did it:

Method one: count more deaths as starvation.

A famine, by definition, requires more than two non-trauma deaths attributable to hunger per 10,000 people per day. To estimate Gaza’s death rate, the IPC relied on a study that explicitly distinguished between violent deaths (from combat) and non-violent ones. The IPC then blurred that line, folding violent deaths into the non-trauma mortality baseline, inflating a reported rate of 0.18 to about 1 per 10,000 people per day—a small sleight of hand that made the numbers more than five times worse than they actually were.

To put it another way, in order to qualify for famine 400 people would have to die from non-violent potentially hunger related causes in Gaza per day. The real number at its peak was closer to 18. According to the IPC’s method, if you were a Hamas fighter killed in battle, congratulations—your death was hunger related.

But even including the more explosive deaths of starvation, the IPC still couldn’t meet the threshold.

So, they resorted to method two: wild speculation. To meet the famine threshold—increasing from one non-violent death per 10,000 to two (ten times the actual number)—the IPC simply estimated an exponential surge in starvation. Never mind that rates of malnutrition and hunger-related deaths held steady in August and even declined by mid-September; the IPC mathematically insisted that a huge increase in deaths was just around the corner.

While the IPC was preaching famine, reality didn’t meet politically biased projections. The rate of nonviolent deaths kept declining—from an average high of six per day in August to fewer than one by early October.

That may sound like a lot—and any death of this kind is tragic—but in a population of two million during a time of war, lack of access to medication, vaccines and reliable sources of food will lead to deaths outside of combat scenarios. Add to that natural deaths (which the Gaza Health Ministry includes) and a terrorist group intentionally causing more suffering by, for example, hoarding baby formula, and nonviolent deaths were inevitable.

Bottom line: No, there isn’t, nor was there ever, a famine in Gaza. They couldn’t find the numbers, so they made them up.

[S.Koopman @Market_Overview]

@NOS Nu bij jullie nog @NOS

[UN Watch @UNWatch]

BREAKING: A bombshell new 200-page report exposes how Hamas terror chiefs seized control of the UNRWA school system responsible for educating hundreds of thousands of children in Gaza and Lebanon.

The UN knew about this scandal — and did nothing.

Here are the highlights: 🧵

[Israel War Room @IsraelWarRoom]

🚨BREAKING: Israel exposes professional negligence and blatant deviation from scientific standards in the recent IPC famine report on Gaza.

A devastating analysis by @cogatonline and Israel’s foreign ministry reveals systematic failures that undermine the report’s credibility.🧵

[NGO Monitor @NGOmonitor]

NGO Monitor Report: “Hamas explicitly states that health facilities in Gaza are not neutral spaces, but instead play a critical role in Hamas’s terror network." >

[Fox News @FoxNews]

BREAKING: Gaza boy 'Abboud,' who was reported killed by IDF, is found alive

[Andrew Fox @Mr_Andrew_Fox]

This is the single most important academic report of the war. It debunks every major claim against Israel, with evidence. It’s long, but I recommend you read the Exec Summary and use it to guide which chapter you need to rebut a particular claim.

https://t.co/IlcWuoKYgD

[Aɴᴛ @AntSpeaks]

This is a must-watch!

An anti-Israel politician challenges UN Watch on UNRWA and, to put it bluntly, has her ass handed to her.

[Aɴᴛ @AntSpeaks]

Wow! This is.. revealing to say the least!

[S.Koopman @Market_Overview]

@MOSSADil 😂😂😂😂

[Rachel Moiselle @RachelMoiselle]

I’ve been studying and working in the area of language and translation since 2011.

I can categorically say that this is the single worst breach of professional ethics I have ever seen. A deliberate mistranslation to hide genocidal antisemitism. I am truly floored.

This is a stain on the BBC that will never be removed.

[Shoshanna Keats Jaskoll @skjask]

They lied about famine.
UKLFI Review Finds Reports of Famine in Gaza were Erroneous

UKLFI Charitable Trust has published a detailed examination of reports of famine in Gaza on which the UN Secretary General, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) have relied in proceedings relating to Israel. The analysis reveals significant errors, methodological flaws, and misrepresentations.

The reports were produced by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) established by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) established by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The operations of FEWS NET and USAID have recently been suspended by the US administration.

Key Findings:

1. No Actual Famine - Despite alarming projections, there has been no famine, as defined by IPC standards, in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. Acute malnutrition levels are only marginally higher than pre-war figures.

2. Flawed March 2024 Reports - IPC and FEWS NET reports from March 2024 projected an imminent famine in North Gaza and stated that there was a risk of famine throughout the Gaza Strip. These assessments were based on incomplete and inaccurate information:
- Significant sources of food and water supply were overlooked.
- The reports relied on a perception of rapidly increasing child malnutrition influenced by an erroneous baseline and possibly anomalous data.

3. Misclassification of Food Insecurity - Subsequent reports consistently assessed the situation in Gaza or parts of it as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) when the data only justified a classification of Phase 3 (Crisis) at most. There is no relevant mortality or malnutrition data to support higher classifications.

4. Errors in Malnutrition Data Analysis:
- FEWS NET and IPC reports incorrectly assumed that the prevalence of acute malnutrition assessed by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) in Gaza prior to October 2023 was 0.8% or 1%, when it was actually 4%.
- This led to erroneous claims of a tenfold increase in acute malnutrition since the start of the war.
- The perception of a sharp increase in acute malnutrition influenced projections and risk assessments.

5. Inconsistent Use of Metrics - Reports compared different metrics (Weight-for-Height Z-score and MUAC) or data from different age groups, leading to misleading conclusions about malnutrition trends.

6. Overestimation of Population in North Gaza - The December 2024 FEWS NET Alert was based on a significant overestimation of the population remaining in North Gaza, leading to false conclusions about food availability per person.

7. Failure of Projections - IPC reports consistently predicted significant increases in the percentage of the Gazan population classified as at Phase 4 and Phase 5. However, their own subsequent assessments showed the opposite trend, with decreases in these classifications over time.

8. Misrepresentation of “Risk of Famine” - The phrase “high risk of Famine” used in IPC documents is misleading. According to IPC guidelines, a “risk of Famine” statement refers to a worst-case scenario with a reasonable chance of occurring, not the most likely scenario.

9. Inadequate Consideration of Improving Conditions - Reports failed to account adequately for improving conditions, such as increased humanitarian aid and food supplies over time.

10. Impact on International Policy - These flawed reports have been cited by high-level officials, including the UN Secretary-General, the ICJ and the ICC Prosecutor, potentially influencing international legal and policy decisions regarding Israel.

War and Peace in the Middle East -Dina Lisnyansky

[Jonathan Sacerdoti @jonsac]

1/ Now a second child star of the BBC’s propaganda film about Gaza has been revealed to be linked to Hamas. Here he is in Hamas clothing with a gun.

But wait, I can reveal more about the BBC’s use of this boy, called Zakaria, in their dodgy film... 🧵👇🏻

[Vivid.🇮🇱 @VividProwess]

Watch closely. Look at those monsters. The women are smiling and taking photos as the children dance in the crowd, celebrating Jewish children being back in coffins. I have never seen a more barbaric and animalistic society than the people of Gaza. They’re demons on Earth.

[Kosher @koshercockney]

🚨 UN-BELIEVABLE - You cannot make this sh*t up!

UN Secretary General António Guterres has instructed the UN to stop all UN programmes, aid and funding to Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Saada.

This comes as the Houthis have kidnapped 8 more UN workers on top of the ones they already detained.

So when dozens of HIS people get kidnapped that’s when it’s okay to stop aid?

But when Oct 7th happens, Israel sending hundreds of trucks per day into Gaza still isn’t enough?

The hypocrisy of this man and this organisation.

[Eitan Fischberger @EFischberger]

Any honest observer should be able to look at the footage emerging from Gaza—featuring genocidal antisemitic chants, glorification of terrorism, the near-lynching of hostages, and a well-fed civilian population—and confront three fundamental truths:

1. Gaza is a profoundly sick society, deeply entrenched in radicalization. Undoing this will require decades of comprehensive efforts, and even then, success is far from guaranteed.

2. For 15 months, they have been fed blatant lies about "genocide" and "famine." They have been systematically deceived.

3. Hamas cannot be allowed to play any role in governing Gaza after the war and must cease to exist as a functional entity.

Anyone who refuses to acknowledge these realities needs to take a good hard look at their moral compass—and fast.

[Mor Edge Insight @MorEdge_Insight]

Nobody understood it and articulated it quite like Golda.

May her memory forever be a blessing. She was and will always be our lioness.

[Een ex-woke docent @EenExWokeDocent]

Iedere jurist weet dat de zogenaamde “illegal occupation of Palestine” een modern bloedsprookje is, oftewel een regelrechte haathoax.

Volgens internationaal recht dat overal ter wereld wordt toegepast, krijgen nieuwe staten bij hun oprichting de grenzen van het administratieve gebied dat eraan voorafging (uti possidetis iuris).

Voor Israël betekende dit dat bij de onafhankelijkheid in 1948, de grenzen van het Britse mandaat automatisch de grenzen van de nieuwe staat werden. De Westelijke Jordaanoever, Oost-Jeruzalem en Gaza vielen dus binnen Israëlische soevereiniteit.

Echter direct na Israëls oprichting vielen Jordanië en Egypte deze gebieden binnen, tijdens hun poging om Israël meteen te vernietigen. Jordanië bezette de Westelijke Jordaanoever en Oost-Jeruzalem, terwijl Egypte Gaza overnam. Dit waren dus de échte bezettingen.

In 1967, tijdens de Zesdaagse Oorlog, heroverde Israël deze bezette gebieden. Dat was dus geen “illegale bezetting,” maar een herstel van het soeverein grondgebied.
Vergelijk deze situatie met Oekraïne: de Krim hoort volgens dezelfde internationale rechtsregel bij Oekraïne. Als Oekraïne de Krim herovert op Rusland, noemt geen enkel weldenkend mens dat vervolgens een “illegale bezetting.” Waarom wordt Israël dan anders behandeld? Tja. De vraag stellen is hem beantwoorden…

De term “illegal occupation” heeft sowieso geen enkele juridische basis en wordt slechts gebruikt om Israël internationaal te isoleren, te delegitimeren en om het bestaansrecht van de enige Joodse staat in twijfel te trekken. In onze media en op onze universiteiten wordt deze antisemitische leugenachtigheid nu al zó lang gepropageerd, dat we inmiddels een compleet gehersenspoelde generatie hebben, die massaal gelooft in een herschreven geschiedenis.

Via @triggerpod / Natasha Hausdorff: