Andrew Gilbert

Etoro Popular Investor

My Investment Portfolio

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

Failure is irrelevant unless you stop trying.

Keep pushing through tough times and easier times will follow.

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

USD Rally 😎

I just closed the trade at a profit of 39.26% https://t.co/VvUNh10WDH

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

A dollar counter rally would be #nonconsensus

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

5-10% sell off
Large rate cuts
Big chase on stocks
Inflation runs hot
Fed goes hawkish
Inflation+unemployment rise
Market sells off 30+%

Let's see...

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

Stocks must go higher... inflation doesn't accelerate and unemployment rises, cuts come in and stocks go higher.

Stocks aren't hot enough to really fall.

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Thoughts on Spx and Russell with specs short vs Nasdaq long?

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

“Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.”

— Warren Buffett

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

Im back giving analysis on the market here is episode 1 https://t.co/F4Sg7zqbRG

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

The real question we must ask is do we see the august lows before or after the fed?

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

@VivianneGraaf @BobEUnlimited Some claim that the difference is because of government meddling and that GDI shows the actual growth of the economy. Its always tough to know who to trust.. With so many voices my two favourite people on fintwit is Bob and Andy Constan

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

@BobEUnlimited Thanks Bob your a legend have a good weekend!

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

So if we hit 4.8 - 5% in the next 6 months does the soft landing narrative end? Stocks down bonds sideways to up?

The market doesnt believe this is likely otherwise we wouldn't be at ATH. Everyone is crowded into stocks. Stocks are 3 standard deviations above the VWAP of the SNP similar to the dot com bubble.

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

@BobEUnlimited given the sustained rise in unemployment since April 24 at what point does the unemployment rate signal recession on the horizon? 4.8? 5? Can we get to that level in the next 6 months based on current trend acceleration? Is the market still talking of soft landing?

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

The next 18 months are going to be interesting to say the least.

#recession

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

I think a mild reflation is on the horizon which leads to H4L rates which isn't priced in. So maybe we get 2-3 cuts before reflation feeds into CPI and the FED has to hold rates as cpi ticks up this causes the reflation to deflate again. The RRP will be close to zero at this point and the feds QT will finally impact the market doubling down on the liquidity shock to markets as yields reprice higher.
Any comments welcome

@PalisadesRadio @BobEUnlimited
@dampedspring
#reflation #H4L #inflation #FederalReserve #rates

[Andrew Gilbert @marketobserved]

Reported earnings -12%
Forecast of 500 -0.4%

Mag7 gotta bring in the cheese

[FactSet @FactSet]

$SPX is reporting its lowest net profit margin since Q2 2020. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/yReEpmgRIe

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Probably no better chart to illustrate the fact that differences in GDP growth have nothing to do with differences in equity returns.

From '03 China's nominal GDP up 1000%, Japan's up 12%.

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

Jeff Bezos once said:

"You can be grinding for 4 years with no results, and in the 5th year, become the biggest thing on the planet. The power of not giving up is real"

Here are 10 things I learned from him: