Karim

Making tokenized real estate + prediction markets make sense for everyday people. Building @lofty_ai + @alphaarcade on Algorand.

[Karim @markhker]

I work inside two of finance's most interesting experiments: tokenized real estate @lofty_ai and prediction markets @alphaarcade

Most of what you read about both is hype. I'll show how they really work, with real numbers.

Curious but not technical? Follow along.

[Karim @markhker]

A guy lost $308K betting on sports on Kalshi. Now he's suing for almost double, under an old Washington law that lets people who lose money at illegal gambling get it back.

The trick: only the games he lost count, not the ones he won.

Best bet of his life if the judge buys it

[Karim @markhker]

@Kalshi NAR has it at 3.75M annualized in October, lowest since August 2010. The median price still rose 0.4% to $416,700 and distressed sales are only 2%. People with cheap old mortgages are just staying put while 30-year rates sit above 7%.

[Karim @markhker]

55% of Kalshi's card deposits in September came from the 11 states without legal sports betting, home to about a third of US adults (American Spend data in Predicted's Q3 report).

18 to 24 year olds made up 30% of them, about twice their share at DraftKings and FanDuel.

[Karim @markhker]

Stablecoins grew 64x because everyone onchain needed a dollar to trade with. Tokenized stocks have to beat a brokerage app that already works, so the curve won't copy-paste. Securitize says only about 0.002% of the $169T equity market is onchain so far.

https://t.co/GcTJokl1x9

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🚨 UPDATE: Tokenized stocks have reached $4.6 billion in market cap, matching the level stablecoins hit in March 2020 before growing 64-fold, according to Securitize.

[Karim @markhker]

@DarkWebInformer Microsoft's status page says Defender XDR and the 365 admin center may be unreachable too, so for a lot of companies the security console went down along with the mail.
Expect "re-verify your Microsoft account" emails once things come back.

[Karim @markhker]

@Polymarket Every headline says "as early as December" and the market gives it 30% by Dec 31.
"As early as" is doing a lot of work here

[Karim @markhker]

@DarkWebInformer 19 of the 21 were already on the hotfix N-able shipped Tuesday. The chain needs the Legacy API turned on and reachable from the internet, and it's off by default.

If you run N-central for clients, go check that setting today.

[Karim @markhker]

Louisiana named more than two dozen companies: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, Gemini, Crypto com, Underdog, Novig.

Every one of these state cases asks if CFTC rules override state gambling law. My money is on the Supreme Court answering it.

https://t.co/o0xVC5vKEz

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🇺🇸 BIG: Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood and other prediction market operators over alleged illegal gambling, seeking an immediate injunction.

[Karim @markhker]

DTCC's tokenization service went live Oct 28 with 34 eligible securities, about $30T in market value. Not wrapped tokens: DTC keeps the ownership record and shareholder rights stay with the token.

Most stock tokens on Solana today can't say that.

https://t.co/rLuu7kPFRK

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

LATEST: @The_DTCC plans to bring tokenized securities to @Solana in H2 2027, with the same investor protections as traditionally held securities.

[Karim @markhker]

@Cointelegraph The weekend is the real unlock. Card settlement between Visa and banks normally waits for business days, so Friday night obligations sit until Monday. Paying in a stablecoin lets an issuer settle on a Saturday.

[Karim @markhker]

Glassnode counts 35.4% of BTC in addresses with public keys already visible onchain, and Bitcoin is still debating its upgrade.

Algorand has had Falcon post-quantum accounts on mainnet since August, and now Folks and Pera support them. Algo ftw

[Folks Finance @FolksFinance]

Folks Finance now supports @Algorand's post-quantum accounts!

We've collaborated with @PeraAlgoWallet to bring this to life, taking another step toward a more secure and quantum-resistant future.

[Karim @markhker]

Tokenized doesn't mean you can get out at 2am on a Sunday. Someone still has to be on the other side.

For BlackRock's BUIDL that's now a $100M facility from Securitize and Ethena, so eligible holders can swap into stablecoins like USDC outside market hours.

[Karim @markhker]

No firmware change, secure element untouched, so the usual checks pass. An extra board between the main board and the screen copies what's shown, recovery words included, and sends it over a cellular module.

All three came from one reseller. Buy direct.

[Trezor @Trezor]

https://t.co/44uFKCj93y

[Karim @markhker]

@Cointelegraph @glider__ Brokerage-like without a brokerage account. My usual question for every one of these: are the tokens actual shares held for you by a custodian, or a contract that tracks the price?

[Karim @markhker]

@DecryptMedia Under the current law a Korean exchange could only freeze withdrawals once a hack was clearly established. Hot wallet drains usually take minutes, so that rule was always late. Exchanges that can't staff 24/7 monitoring will only process withdrawals during staffed hours.

[Karim @markhker]

Yes needs three of these in one 90-day window: Nvidia down 50% from its high, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic bankrupt, OpenAI acquired, H100 rent at $1 or less for 5 days, or TSMC, ASML or similar down 50%.

A CEO leaving isn't on the list.

https://t.co/vQnzA1FO1s

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Odds of the AI bubble bursting surge following Jensen Huang's resignation after 33 years as Nvidia CEO.

12% chance by year-end.

🔗 https://t.co/J4f1HanlWN

[Karim @markhker]

If you only bet on your own teams anyway: For You on @alphaarcade lets you follow them and builds combo picks around their next games. It's open to every signed-in account and connected wallet, with a 12% payout boost on those combos.

[Karim @markhker]

@BigFax404 @alphaarcade Early cash out only shows when there's a live quote to sell your combo into, so it depends on liquidity for that exact combo at that moment. When there's no quote, it stays locked until the games settle. Glad the hedge saved it

[Karim @markhker]

Building an NBA combo tonight? On @alphaarcade you can now mix prediction-market picks and sportsbook picks in one basketball combo and the whole thing gets priced in one go. Same for hockey, baseball and tennis.

[Karim @markhker]

Less than 15 hours after that 61%, he resigned, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO.

[Karim @markhker]

Kalshi had Jensen leaving as Nvidia CEO before 2028 at 35% on Monday. Tonight it hit 61% on the second affair report, and Polymarket's end-of-year market was at 75% minutes after the board story broke.

This guy...

https://t.co/SPCBk8unV0

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Nvidia's board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang. — WSJ

[Karim @markhker]

Markets vs. Results: Jensen Huang.

Monday, Kalshi had him leaving as Nvidia CEO before 2028 at 35%. Wednesday night, after the board reports, it hit 61%, and Polymarket's this-year market was at 75%.

This morning he resigned, effective immediately. Wild week.