Mark Regets

Economist who researches and writes about immigration, higher ed, and STEM labor markets. 'Retired' from NSF's NCSES, continuing to write for IZA and NFAP.

[NFAPResearch @NFAPResearch]

Intl. students, including PhDs, must finish degrees in 4 years. The only assurance from DHS in the new rule is the right to file an extension. @MarkRegets asks, “How is that a genuine assurance? Why take a chance on a US education?” @David_J_Bier @gsiskind https://t.co/RYLWGnT7Qg

[Mark Regets @markregets]

@BachmannRudi It creates a risk for any foreign student committing to either a bachelor's or PhD program in the US. BOTH typically take more than 4 years. They will have to gamble that USCIS will re-approve their visa (the function originally performed by State).

[Mark Regets @markregets]

@TahraHoops The shrinking labor force makes the economy less dynamic and perversely REDUCES opportunities for the workers who remain.

[Mark Regets @markregets]

@AlexNowrasteh Congratulations!

If I see you tweeting at 3am with horrible typos, I'll know why.

[Mark Regets @markregets]

When I started writing on STEM labor markets for NSF in the '90s there were people pushing a narrative that American had too many scientists and engineers. That was not true then and it is not true now.

[Connor O’Brien @cojobrien]

What the current consensus about the STEM labor market gets wrong

There is a broad consensus forming that students and workers going into STEM fields have been getting a raw deal. There are a few groups driving this sentiment: AI doomers convinced mass unemployment is imminent, starting with CS; opponents of high-skilled immigration; and those anxious about the gradually weakening national labor market. I will catch a lot of flak for this, but I am pretty convinced they are wrong, mistaking a weak national economy for something specific to STEM.

This may seem like nitpicking, but it is already leading to decisions that will make Americans poorer long-term. The move against H-1Bs (smothering rather than fixing the program) and the possible end of OPT are both examples of costly policy mistakes justified by this narrative. But this goes far beyond immigration policy. The idea that STEM majors no longer pay — or that these grads have a uniquely hard time finding a job — is also penetrating popular media. If it’s wrong, the pundits advancing this line may cost their impressionable young readers and listeners hundreds of thousands of dollars of future income. The stakes are high for people now deciding what to do with their lives, but the debate is dominated by vibes.

I have investigated many of the skeptics’ claims over the last few months and found them to be overwhelmingly flimsy or anecdotal. I’m summarizing them here, with links to some of these in-depth investigations I’ve done. Here are a few of the claims that I think are either highly misleading or outright wrong.

Claim 1: STEM degrees no longer lead to higher earnings.

Unlike some of the other claims in this post, it’s hard to tell where this comes from. Average wage and salary income for STEM majors is much higher than for non-STEM majors. The gap has been virtually unchanged as far back as American Community Survey data allows.
Before you jump to claim this is a phenomenon of high-earning outliers driving up the STEM average, it’s also true of the median. Note that for both of these charts, I differ from many analyses in considering the whole relevant population, not just year-round, full-time workers.

If you want to go beyond degrees and instead look at occupations, we find the same story. Workers in STEM occupations earn twice as much on average as those in non-STEM jobs. The average STEM worker in the United States earns over $100,000 in wage and salary income. The STEM/non-STEM gap has been consistent over time.
And again, what’s true for the averages also holds true for medians.

[John Nevelten @NeveltenJohn]

@JonahDispatch @stanveuger Read the history of the real life "Chief Designer". As brutal as they show Soviet socialism to have been, they are pulling their punches to stay believable. (Much like the musical "Hamilton" had to make his life history LESS tragic to not seem over the top.)

[John Nevelten @NeveltenJohn]

I am a Third Way supporter, but I disagree with this. YES Democrats need to emphasize public safety and strong law enforcement. But this accepts too much of the FALSE narrative being pushed by MAGA 1/5

[John Nevelten @NeveltenJohn]

To different degrees, BOTH Mamdani and this Italian American organization are ignoring history.

Migrants from Italy ARE an important part of American immigration history. But Italy in 1890 was as "third world" as Uganda today. It was poorer and had HALF the literacy rate.

[David French @DavidAFrench]

The faster the center-right and the center-left realize that they have more in common with each other than with the extremists on their own "sides," the better off we'll be.

[John Nevelten @NeveltenJohn]

Very good summary. To summarize the summary: the large post-COVID surge may have caused a 1.9% increase in rents in the median metro area, while stimulating the economy and having no negative effect on native employment or wages.

[Mark Regets @markregets]

Yes! Markets adjust to the amount and type of labor available. But they can adjust at a lower rate of growth and lower incomes.

With fewer scientists and engineers, markets can adjust to lower levels of R&D and innovation.

[Jon Murphy @jmurphy8289]

Cass's statement is true but irrelevant. A market always functions with available labor. Prices adjust, goods get reallocated. But that's a static story. You grow (ie get wealthier) with more labor, more resources. If aliens from Mars came, we'd be wealthier.

[NFAPResearch @NFAPResearch]

A study finds restrictions imposed in the 1920s, which Stephen Miller has praised, harmed innovation and reduced Americans’ economic well-being. Immigrants increase innovation by locating in hubs like Silicon Valley, NY and Boston. @David_J_Bier @gsiskind https://t.co/NL4nkQFXoT

[Mark Regets @markregets]

The problem with that often reproduced Denmark chart (besides Denmark not being America) is that it only measure flows to and from individuals.

Economies are SYSTEMS. Taxes are also paid by the businesses where immigrants work, by where they are customers, and by other workers who may be more productive and make more money because of the immigrants around them.

In addition, America has less generous social benefits than Denmark, puts many more restrictions on immigrant eligibility for benefits, and has a more flexible labor market that gives immigrants more opportunities to advance.

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

The boring truth is that we know the names of the politicians who overperform with working class voters — it’s Josh Shapiro in PA, Roy Cooper & Josh Stein & Don Davis in NC, Vincente Gonzalez & Henry Cuellar in Texas, Gallego/Kelly/Hobbs in AZ, Whitmer/Slotkin in MI.

[Mark Regets @markregets]

The problem with that often reproduced Denmark chart (besides Denmark not being America) is that it only measure flows to and from individuals.

Economies are SYSTEMS. Taxes are also paid by the businesses where immigrants work, by where they are customers, and by other workers who may be more productive and make more money because of the immigrants around them.

In addition, America has less generous social benefits than Denmark, puts many more restrictions on immigrant eligibility for benefits, and has a more flexible labor market that gives immigrants more opportunities to advance.

[Mark Regets @markregets]

For those not immersed in immigration-law speak:

"Immigrant right to apply for benefits" refers to things like right to seek permission to work, NOT welfare benefits.

[Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney]

JUST IN: A federal judge in Ohio, describing hostility toward nonwhite immigrants expressed by President Trump/VP Vance, becomes the latest judge to order the administration to unfreeze immigrant benefit applications frozen by USCIS. https://t.co/mFflPxPl3l

[Mark Regets @markregets]

@StrangelEdweird @RBReich Frederick Douglass is one of the most impressive American thinkers. He saw the darkness and the light in both America's history and in its potential. On liberty, race, and immigration he always tried to steer us to the light.

[John Nevelten @NeveltenJohn]

@lakeshoredr1ve Rent control is incompatible with reality, not just capitalism.

"Price determination by law is an illusion, as it is in contradiction with the real movement of society."
Karl Marx, from The Poverty of Philosophy (1847)

[Mark Regets @markregets]

@BillKristol @ReichlinMelnick I can live with the "born on third and think they hit a triple" people. I worry more about those born on third who are resentful that they don't have a free pass to run to home.

[John Nevelten @NeveltenJohn]

@jessesingal Most people voting for Democrats in general elections are already more conservative than many of the Democrats being denounced as "centrists".