Mark Stopa

Entrepreneur. Investor. Fantasy football analyst. Sports enthusiast. #BillsMafia. “Skate where the puck is going, not where it’s been.”

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

It’s time to (re)tell the story of my prior (law) career. You might find it interesting w DOGE stuff we see now.

The short version:

From 2008 - 2018, I was Florida’s best foreclosure defense lawyer (by a lot). Won 2,000 cases for homeowners. (For comparison, nobody else in FL won 200.). I also created many of the favorable appellate decisions for homeowners.

After my work cost banks billions (yes, not exaggerating), banks hired private investigators to create a dossier against me in an effort to take me out, which they then circulated anonymously to FL gov’t.

This dossier was never the subject of any court proceeding, but it became justification for govt to attack me relentlessly. Endless attacks by my state Bar. A “raid” on my office, w the raid leaked to media. Then media hit pieces.

I was never arrested, much less charged or convicted, of anything. Heck, I wasn’t even sued in civil court about any of the false stuff they alleged. And I’d spent my career helping the poor. So why did govt use the dossier as an excuse to keep attacking me, esp when I’d devoted my career to helping the less fortunate?

I got a judge to testify that the pay raises of all FL judges, statewide, were tied to their foreclosing faster for the benefit of banks.
Judges got large pay raises for capitulating — $2M in extra pay (lifetime) for highest judges in state.

That’s when it all clicked for me. The hostility I so often felt from the judges before whom I appeared was a byproduct of their large personal incentives to rule against me & my clients.

The whole system went into the tank. Not one judge stood up & said “this is wrong” bc they were all benefitting from it. In aftermath of 2008 GFC, the judiciary went into the tank, aligning w Wall Street & throwing Main Street under the bus. Why? So judges w de-facto lifetime appointments could get more pay

(This same dynamic existed across USA. It’s why no bankers went to jail after crashing global economy in 2008 GFC)

The result? Two million foreclosures pushed thru the system in FL alone … homes taken from middle class & redistributed to banks, hedge funds & investors. Ever since, home prices have continued to grow faster than median income, making housing unaffordable for so many. All by design

A illustration of how badly the judiciary twisted the laws to help banks (and themselves)? Florida now has a statute of limitations for everything except homicide & mortgage foreclosure. And it’s now almost impossible to find a lawyer who can help homeowners. They didn’t just crush me—they eliminated help for consumers altogether

When I wrote a book about this, I thought I could change how the system operated. The story was so compelling, it felt like a movie script. What did I realize?

A Pulitzer winning journalist told me she couldn’t cover my story bc her editors wouldn’t let her. A national PR firm liked my story so much they worked on it for a year for free, only to realize media was never going to cover it

Freedom of the press was created to expose govt secrets, but in practice, it protects corrupt govt.

(This is why Elon is now getting attacked, even though he’s a grifter (corporate subsides) too)

Wall Street, government and media aren’t just in bed together. They’re all the same thing

And the public? It ensures the system never changes by arguing D v R endlessly

Some people will never believe me. That’s ok. My life is great. I use my unique knowledge of the system to make a career in investing, and I love my life

That said, I’ll always be sad at how many ppl got crushed in aftermath of 2008 …

How many couldn’t pivot like I did …

And part of me will always want my friends to see just how corrupt & irredeemable govt is … so they can tune out the endless BS and improve their lives

So, if you see me post about corruption, this is part of where I’m coming from. It’s real, it’s worse than you think, and it absolutely fucks the bottom 99%

😊💪

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@FAmmiranteTFJ Fading injury optimism is usually the right idea. That’s what I see here.

@scott_pianowski has been on that train for many years.

It’s +EV, esp over large sample sizes.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

SpaceX IPO puts it at a value of $1.77 trillion

Fewer than 10 companies in world history have ever reached this valuation. Yes, ever

The financials / revenues of this company don’t merit this valuation. Not even close

Maybe you think there’s upside here bc Elon is involved. But that’s the wrong mindset

First rule of investing: protect your downside

SpaceX downside is massive

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

My thesis on Bitcoin remains unchanged & under-discussed.

I see this as one of the most important investing questions we will ever encounter.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

I think Peter’s rejection of bitcoin is dumb.

That said, I think Bitcoiners don’t do a good enough job of discussing the desire of the corrupt system to squash sound money.

If they have unfettered access to a money printer, why would they ever let Bitcoin win?

I agree sound money wins eventually … but when? What will happen to compel the (corrupt) system to adopt the soundest money (against its interests)? Social unrest? Civil war? A complete collapse?

That needs to be the discussion, yet I see none of it.

I wish I saw more.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

I think Peter’s rejection of bitcoin is dumb.

That said, I think Bitcoiners don’t do a good enough job of discussing the desire of the corrupt system to squash sound money.

If they have unfettered access to a money printer, why would they ever let Bitcoin win?

I agree sound money wins eventually … but when? What will happen to compel the (corrupt) system to adopt the soundest money (against its interests)? Social unrest? Civil war? A complete collapse?

That needs to be the discussion, yet I see none of it.

I wish I saw more.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@Convertbond My view:

Eliminating Saylor from the space.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@garrett_giltner @SamMonsonNFL I’ll be surprised if we don’t look back at last season as the end of Garrett’s peak. And if consensus doesn’t wind up that browns won here.

Father Time always wins.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@garrett_giltner @SamMonsonNFL He’s 30, entering year 10.

How many years do you think he’s going to play?

Back 9, clearly.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@kale_abe @lopp Meh.

Get rid of Saylor.
That should be the plan.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@_A_S_btc Maybe.

I have my thesis.
You have yours.

I think those who share your thesis are overconfident … and markets crush overconfidence.

Let’s see.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

My biggest concern w bitcoin:

The way Saylor has tried to turn it into a dividend-yielding product.

Bitcoin wasn’t created to produce dividends. Doing so is perverting it. That’s the weakness, and that’s what markets exploit.

Pigs get fat.
Hogs get slaughtered.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@_A_S_btc I don’t want to outbid him.

I’d rather wait until Wall Street annihilates him.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

Put on your evil villain hat.
That’s how Wall Street thinks.

A yield-producing model only works if price keeps going up, right?

If make it go down, at least in short term, force Saylor to sell & drive Bitcoin into hands of others at a cheaper price.

Why drive up price now, to benefit Saylor, when can drive it down first, crush him, and benefit Epstein class of new buyers?

This is super clear to me. And it’s why Saylor is taking unnecessary risk by making yield producing products.

Buy and hold as intended and nobody can touch him. But this? It’s a weakness, and weaknesses like this get crushed.

My opinion.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@rmtswank I don’t think anything that’s yield-oriented in the bitcoin space helps Bitcoin.

This isn’t a product that creates yield naturally. It’s inorganic. That’s the weakness that markets exploit.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

I like that timing.

(Many) Rs have learned Trump isn’t helping bottom 90%. By 2030 (after Ds regain control), many Ds will learn that socialist policies & tax hikes don’t help bottom 90%, either.

As wealth gap keeps increasing, the knowledge that neither party is helping will spur reform/revolt.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

For me, the most bullish Bitcoin news I could imagine would be bearish short-term:

Eliminate the yields!

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@OffshoreHODL Why will rates come down?

Sincerely asking.

I’m skeptical, as I don’t see who is buying USA debt … unless it’s the Fed & yield curve control, but that just creates bigger problems.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@VladTheInflator Entire FHA system is a scam.

Taxpayer funded loans for houses on which loan servicers foreclose & collect in full.

Burn it.

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

@GunnelsWarren Is the answer really to “get angrier?”
Or is it understanding that govt won’t help you & thriving on your own?

[Mark Stopa @MarkStopa]

I think Dart, like every sports athlete, needs to stay out of politics.

This goes for both sides.

It annoyed me how nobody called out Kerr & Popovich when they did this.

Just my preference I guess.
Same for movie stars too. I don’t care to see these types of ppl get into politics.