Daniel Marks

[Daniel Marks @markuisis]

An optimistic AI scenario/maybe software engineers won’t become drywallers
Companies don’t need as many white collar workers for a given job (ex: Meta only needs 10k engineers instead of 30k) BUT given every individual white collar worker is so much more productive with AI, smaller companies can now justify hiring for all sorts of white collar roles they wouldn’t have been able to in the past. In other words, because a data scientist + AI can now do the work of 10 data scientists, maybe the 15 person shoe brand can justify hiring a data scientist in the first place. Ditto for a software developer or a creative director or an in house counsel or even (gasp) a content writer.

Therefore, the white collar job losses from large companies would be more than filled with the white collar job gains from small to midsize companies.

[Daniel Marks @markuisis]

An Optimistic Google Search AI scenario
Informational queries get even harder to monetize for Google. But transactional queries monetize at an even higher rate because:

-The preferred interface remains something like Google Shopping: a grid of products with filters, not an AI provided “answer”

-The number of transactional queries increases because “complex transactional queries” become feasible: “show me all inclusive resorts, anywhere within a 6 hour flight of Vancouver that are on the beach, kid friendly and have tennis courts” or “show me minimalist bookshelves that are under $1500, 5 - 6ft tall and made of solid wood” or “show me 55”+ TVs that have Chromecast built in, 3 HDMI ports and good Reddit reviews”

-Targeting improves thanks to the additional context a universal AI assistant can bring to bear

From an SEO POV: ecommerce SEO surges in importance (ensuring your site is optimized for “complex transactional queries”/super long tail ones) while the importance of content SEO recedes.