#PLTR Q4'23 Earning Highlights
Revenue: $608 million in Q4 2023, a 20% increase YoY and a 9% increase QoQ
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $305 million in Q4 2023, representing a 50% margin
Adjusted Operating Margin: 34% in Q4 2023
Base case for ‘23-24:
— 1-2 more rate hikes but only 25 bps. Rates peak at 5%.
— Recession starts mid-year.
— Fed cuts by Q1 ‘24.
— Recovery begins Q2 ‘24.
— Biggest risk factor: sovereign debt bomb.
I don’t have a lot of confidence in this, just my best guess.
The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of 10-yr and 3-mo Treasury yields. That inversion occurred today for the first time since 2020 with the 3-Month Treasury bill (4.04%) ending the day with a yield 3 bps higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond (4.01%).
Policymakers in many countries are now expecting a recession to hit soon.
But that's not the real deal here.
The biggest problem is that their long-term growth model could well be broken for good.
A thread.
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