Jason Martinez

Arizona 🌵 code, combat sports & whatever rabbit hole I'm in this week

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

If Haney gets the winner, that's a ridiculous fight. Boxing is at its best when the big names actually get in there and settle it.

[🇺🇦 Benji @JhusLeftarm]

today Devin Haney reveals he wants the winner of @RyanGarcia against @TeofimoLopez for UNDISPUTED next!

#Boxing #HaneyParo #HaneyGarcia2

[ @fighthype ]

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

For those automating bank feeds into QuickBooks, what still needs a manual fix at month end: categorization, duplicate transactions, or something I haven't thought of?

[dreykon @dreykon_xyz]

Polymarket gives a $VAR token launch a 4% chance by Nov 30 and 81% by Dec 31.

That means the market is pricing a ~77% chance of a December TGE, with 54 days left and a lot still not shipped.

In September @variational_io listed what they’d do “in the final weeks before TGE”. Here’s where each one is now:

> Public mainnet: still private beta, “just around the corner”
> Trading API: whitelisted alpha testers only, public release planned later in November
> Big partnership reveal: updates expected to start late November
> Buyback details + team/investor split: nothing yet

That’s a lot to ship in ~7 weeks. Doable, but tight.

So why the slowdown? On Nov 4 @variational_lvs said that in mid-September they moved a big chunk of dev resources to security. Extra audits of the code and ops, AI pentesting, red teaming.

Honestly I’d take a few weeks of delay over a token launching on a protocol that gets drained in month one.

Now the trade itself on @Polymarket:

> YES at ~82¢ → ~21% return if they ship in 54 days
> NO at ~21¢ → ~4.7x if it slips into 2027

But the bear case is real. This team already moved one deadline (Q3 → Q4). And the market needs an actual launch by Dec 31, not a date in a tweet. Late December is holiday mode for liquidity too.

What I’m watching: if public mainnet and the public API are both live before ~Dec 1, 81% looks fair to me, maybe cheap. If late November comes and it’s still “around the corner”, NO starts to look interesting.

My take: they probably make it, but I’d bet on the second half of December. Strong product, tight calendar.

Meanwhile 150K points keep dropping every week until TGE, so each extra week dilutes everyone a bit.

Just how I read the odds, not advice.

Would you buy YES at 82¢ or fade the deadline?

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

That uppercut had him buffering for a second. Boxing is so brutal when a clean shot lands and your brain needs a minute to reconnect.

[Joe Rogan Podcast News @joeroganhq]

Damn, that was a clean one. I don't think he knew where he was for a second there. https://t.co/ELUg64wYgS

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Stablecoins are where crypto meets actual payments. Losing this much liquidity should make Ethereum folks pretty uncomfortable when other chains are pulling ahead this quickly.

[Immortal 💥 @BitImmortal]

ethereum's stablecoin supply down 24% in 2026

dropped from $177B to $135B now

that's $42B gone

while ethereum is losing stablecoin liquidity, other chains are gaining:

Tron, Solana, BNB chain

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Mike Tyson sitting across from you would make every man discover a sudden, deep respect for personal space. Honestly, totally fair in that room.

[Steve Clemans @Steve09812]

Joe Rogan Was Scared of Mike Tyson at His Own Podcast

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

The wait between UFC fights gets ridiculous when a card is moving fast and the broadcast fills the gap with the same main event promo again.

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

@0x_DAVE1 @primus_labs really curious to see how this handles ambiguous outcomes in production

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Short notice five rounds against Bonfim is a massive ask. Can't blame Jacobe Smith for wanting three, that's a brutal spot to get offered.

[Kevin @realkevink]

🚨FIGHT REJECTJON🚨

Jacobe Smith Says He Declined Being The #UFCVegas124 Short Notice Main Event Against Gabriel Bonfim Since The Fight Was 5 Rounds And Wanted It To Be Only 3 Rounds

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Boxing people, how are you scoring a close round where one guy works the body for three minutes and the other lands a couple clean counters upstairs?

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Reliable resolution is what gets people to come back to prediction markets. Every market needs to make the answer feel unquestionable, especially when money's involved.

[Tolu 很快👨🏽‍🍳 @tolu_id]

Prediction markets are only as useful as the systems handling them. Creating a market is one part of the process, but there also needs to be infrastructure for managing activity and determining outcomes. @PRDCTR_IO is addressing this with a dedicated AppChain built on Aventus.

Having its own AppChain gives Predictr a network focused on the needs of its prediction market ecosystem. This is relevant because market activity involves several moving parts, from user participation to data handling and final settlement.

Oracles and validators also have important roles. Oracles help bring information from outside the blockchain into the system, while validators support the network’s operations. Together, these components contribute to how markets can reach their final outcomes.

The $PRD token is designed to cover gas fees, governance, and network incentives. This connects the token to the platform’s actual operations, with its long term utility depending on how much activity the ecosystem attracts.

Predictr is also developing its node ecosystem and community quests. These give people additional ways to participate beyond making predictions. I think the real test will be how these features translate into consistent market activity and reliable outcome resolution as the platform grows.

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

@validclipx first class beef with a boxing undercard is wild

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

I'll defend a full round of cage wrestling, especially when one guy keeps digging for an underhook and the other keeps shutting it down.

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Shakur vs. Muratalla has the makings of a great fight, and 20 days feels like just enough time for boxing to make this complicated.

[BOXING n BBQ @BOXINGnBBQ]

The WBO has ordered junior welterweight champion Shakur Stevenson to begin negotiations with mandatory challenger and No. 1 contender Raymond Muratalla.

Both sides have 20 days to reach an agreement.

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Volk getting one more shot at Ilia before he calls it a career would be incredible. And for the lightweight belt? Yeah, sign me up.

[Championship Rounds @ChampRDS]

Alexander Volkanovski is down for an Ilia Topuria rematch before he retires 👀

"That would be great too. If it's gonna be for a lightweight title then yea.

To get that win back would be great. I'm a competitor and I'd love to test myself against him."

(via @1bbradfo)

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

There is something deeply funny about a bot calmly buying one-cent BTC contracts while everyone else is refreshing the chart and losing their minds.

[Goaty @goatyishere]

I can't believe this bot made $627K on Polymarket and still hasn't been banned

This HFT bot uses two completely opposite strategies on BTC Up/Down markets

Its stats are insane:

→ $627.5K profit
→ $114.3M trading volume
→ 154,420 markets traded

Check: https://t.co/OHRAy9Znsy

Here's how it works

Every 5 mins, it watches BTC markets and waits for one side to drop to 1-5¢

Then it does one of two things

→ Buys the almost impossible outcome, hunting 3000%+ returns
→ Buys the almost guaranteed outcome, collecting tiny 1% gains

The strategy appears pretty simple

One massive win can cover dozens of failed bets, while small wins help keep the bot profitable

Most traders can't make money with one strategy

This bot somehow makes money with two completely opposite ones

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Broner showing up and throwing hands over an allegation on a livestream is a completely unhinged crossover. Vitaly streams really do have the least predictable fight cards.

[Happy Punch @HappyPunch]

Adrien Broner just punched an alleged child predator on Vitaly’s stream

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

UFC broadcasts keep cutting to crowd shots between rounds right when a corner starts giving instructions. Please just leave the mic on the coach for once.

[Jason Martinez @martinezjason_]

Something's off here: the screenshots show different profit and market counts, so I'd want to verify the account before calling this an AI trading edge.

[Bimba @BimbaCrypto]

🧠 I FOUND CLAUDE BOT ON POLYMARKET: 8,514 MARKETS, +$792K - THE TENNIS UNDERDOG + RESOLUTION GRINDER

Meet TRCM. Joined Jan 2026.

profile: https://t.co/fHsby3NTU9

> 8,514 markets traded.
> All-time profit: +$792.0K. Volume: $44.5M.
> Positions value: $690. Biggest win: $36.7K.
> 18.0K views. Low open inventory relative to volume.

HIS TAPE - TENNIS MATCHES, MIXED PRICING

> Heavy on ATP and WTA individual matches.
> Mix of mid-range and low-cent underdogs (11¢, 17¢, 25¢ range visible).
> Occasional high-probability clips near resolution.
> Positions stay small. Resolves and moves to the next match.
> Public activity shows continuous match-by-match execution across the tour.

WHY THIS IS A CLAUDE BOT

> 8.5k markets since January is not human.
> Tennis-only focus. No crypto 5-minute grinding. No politics.
> High market count, low position size, massive volume.
> Underdog pricing appears repeatedly on the tape.
> The edge sits in volume and the repeated selection of mispriced match outcomes, not in any single conviction bet.
> Zero emotional scaling. Same process across thousands of matches.

THE STRATEGY

> Individual tennis matches only.
> Continuous scanning of the tour for pricing gaps.
> Size on the underdog or mid-range side when the model sees edge.
> Near-certain clips when the market is already decided.
> Exit at resolution. No long holds.
> Scale comes from the number of matches and the consistency of the selection process.

8,514 markets. +$792K.
A Claude bot that treats every tennis match as a separate pricing opportunity and keeps the residual edge.

[Happy Punch @HappyPunch]

Gervonta Davis just posted his DMs with streamer Cuffem 💀

“Send addy. I’ll beat the dog sh*t outta you. I’m the wrong one, I’ll hurt you bad. Ass face.”