MARTIN GUTNIK

Student of Life - Forever

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

Why Toronto Pre-Con Condos Are Selling Below Their 2021 Contract Prices in 2026 https://t.co/Mw41WG8FU2 via @zoocasa

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@MarcNixon24 Very thought provoking. The States of California and Texas each have higher GDP than Canada. So Canada would not be the largest State in terms of GDP. Confederation was a great idea. But there are separation parties in both the Quebec and Federal Governments. Maybe deal time USA?

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@SteveSaretsky I kept hearing Toronto real estate only goes in one direction and that is up because of supply and demand. I would say in response because of vertical build and the amount of cranes in the air - I have trouble with that concept longer term. And what about Affordability??

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@ronmortgageguy Markets (real estate included) are always fun on the way up. People forget in the exuberance that all markets go in cycles.The pendulum always swings too far in both directions. There will always be black swan events.Never over-extend so you can hang on and not crystallize a loss

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@ronmortgageguy @TorontoStar Just wondering if the rule violators regarding Airbnb misrepresent to their insurance providers that the property is Owner Occupied? If they do - it seems that insurance coverage would be denied if the case of loss. A problem for the real estate Owner, Mortgagee and condo Corp

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@KobeissiLetter These headlines are just attention grabbing and panic inducing. Let’s be real. This is not a crypto issue where the assets could be worth zero. These are fixed income products where the trading value has discounted due to rising interest rates. The shortfall is likely 10-20%

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@chengparham @ronmortgageguy We would be at the end of the World as we know it for a big 5 Canadian Bank to fail. There would be no safe place to hide in that scenario

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@EstateLevy AI is like the quote it was the best of times and the worst of times. Huge game changer at this level of sophistication. It is definitely the cure for the tight labour market the Fed is so concerned about. But it will result in unintended consequences that are scary.

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@nasmadotali 2 and where the jobs are and will be going forward and whether work from home will be dialed back somewhat and then decide for yourself whether this is a decent entry point. That’s all anyone can do. The future is always uncertain

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@nasmadotali People should remember that in Toronto investors in particular buy on the basis of the hope for capital gains. The rental income versus cost of property metric has never in my memory supported the buy based on income generation model. So think about immigration numbers (See 2)

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@MarketManiaCa The extra Federal Tax on Banks and Lifecos should give comfort that these institutions will not fail. The interest rate hikes will end soon with the timing of pivot debatable. Still don’t understand why there is an absence of workers for available jobs?

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@MPelletierCIO There are so many moving parts to the story that my long term thesis changes daily and sometimes more frequently than that. Not a comforting time with no visibility possible!

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@ronmortgageguy Has now over-reacted. The pendulum has swung too far with the foreshadowing of further increases. Hopefully the data in real time will support a pause and ultimate pivot. Equity and real estate markets will not stabilize until that point. And yes the unemployment rate will rise.

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@ronmortgageguy The Private lending mortgage market space will as explained by Ron implode. Thankfully for the overall market it is a relatively small space. The only thing that can help at this point is a Fed pivot. I am in the camp that the Fed was late to see the problem of zero rates and 2

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@ronmortgageguy Truth be told - no one - not even those crafting the policy know where this ends. What they do know is that they have a problem that they believe can be cured by increasing rates. So that will happen until they believe the problem - inflation - is under control. Trial and error!

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@MarkinMetaForm Was Bens Deli located where the St Martin Hotel now sits? I remember visiting it when I was a teenager and my memory leads me to believe the only close comparable would be Katz’s Deli in Manhattan.

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@JohnPasalis Not sure where I posted the second part of this reply?

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@JohnPasalis Very true John. Back in 2011 when I thought the US housing market was bottoming when peak value $300,000.00 - 3 bedroom houses in Las Vegas and Phoenix could be purchased for $110,000.00 I asked a previously successful real estate agent in LV how he didn’t see the crash coming?

[MARTIN GUTNIK @MARTINGUTNIK]

@JohnPasalis He said “would you have seen it coming - I had 18 people working for me and we had line ups around the block in new subdivisions and the prices kept increasing while people were even standing in line to write a contract. Pretty hard to think it was going to abruptly end”. Hmmm