Marcus Reid

Geopolitics | Markets | Investing
Investment Banker | founder of CTX trading and consulting | former equity research

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@business Investors still want to be paid more to lock money up for decades. Thats keeping long term rates and mortgage rates higher than many hoped. Would be nice for savers and painful for borrowers. PIMCO sees the higher yields as an opportunity.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@Reuters The weaker dollar has a weird trade-off. Our international holdings can look better in dollar terms, but the same move makes imported goods more expensive. It would be good for one side of the portfolio but not so great for the shopping bill.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@business Japan’s bond auctions could be a bigger deal than they look. Weak demand there can push US long-term yields higher too. That’s not great news if you’re waiting for mortgage rates to come down :)

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@JavierBlas What stands out to me is how big America’s energy advantage still is. Cheap gas supports U.S. factories, jobs and power costs. The real question is how long that edge lasts and what it means for industrial stocks.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

Why should you care about today’s Iran sanctions?

Because if Iran responds by threatening Gulf oil exports, the next place this story shows up is your gas bill.

Oil is already around $93–95. If that stays elevated, it feeds into shipping, groceries, inflation—and eventually the rates you pay on a mortgage or the returns on your 401(k).

Everyone is watching the 2 p.m. announcement. I’m watching what oil does afterward.

If oil keeps climbing, the path to lower inflation and cheaper mortgages just got longer.

https://t.co/iMScbsGdah

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@LizAnnSonders The breadth is what caught my attention after the soft jobs print. Lower hike odds helped lift more of the market, not just a handful of names. Now I'm watching Wednesday's CPI . if inflation stays sticky, this healthy participation could change pretty quickly.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

The softer jobs data gave markets a little breathing room, but I'm not convinced the relief lasts yet. Wednesday's CPI is the number I'm watching now. If inflation stays sticky, stocks may get some support from softer labor while households continue paying the price through higher borrowing costs.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

What caught my attention in Hassett's comments is how much the market wants to hear "hold or cut." But words only go so far 🙂 Long-term yields still need inflation to cooperate before they can really come down. That's why I think stocks can keep rallying while mortgage rates stay stubbornly high.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

The -23k jobs print got my attention because it immediately took some pressure off yields and rate-hike fears. But I'm not ready to call it a win yet. Wednesday's CPI is the bigger test: softer jobs can help stocks, but sticky inflation can keep mortgage rates uncomfortable for much longer.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

Before Friday: Markets still priced a solid chance the Fed would raise rates in September.
After Friday: July jobs fell 23,000, prior months lost another 103,000 in revisions, and the three-month average dropped to 20,000.
Rate-hike odds collapsed. Stocks closed at records. The shift helps valuations today. It also signals the labor market is cooling faster than most expected, something that eventually hits household income and spending. Lower rates help. Weaker jobs eventually don’t.

https://t.co/smsWsqvkUv

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@business If shipping through Hormuz returns to normal, one of the first places I'd expect to see it is at the gas pump. Lower oil prices don't solve everything, but they can take some pressure off household budgets.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@barronsonline A weak ADP report is one thing. If Friday's payrolls tell the same story, markets may start rethinking how much tightening is still ahead. That could take some pressure off long-term borrowing costs.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@CNBC What caught my attention wasn't just gold's biggest jump in six months. It was what drove it: softer hiring and easing oil fears. Markets can change direction quickly when growth expectations and inflation risks shift at the same time.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@zerohedge Sometimes the market reacts more to uncertainty than to the data itself. That's how I read the latest Treasury selloff. Less clarity from the Fed left investors demanding higher long-term yields.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@FT Sometimes the biggest move isn't the Fed's decision—it's the market's reaction to uncertainty. When long-term yields climb, mortgages get more expensive even if the policy rate hasn't changed.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@business When money starts flowing into inflation-protected bonds, I take notice. It's often a sign that investors think price pressures could stick around longer than the headlines suggest.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@CNBC Watching a leveraged fund unwind is a good reminder that markets can stay calm for a long time... until they aren't. Leverage makes those turning points a lot more painful than most people expect.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@business @opinion I've noticed that uncertainty can matter almost as much as the decision itself. If markets don't understand the Fed's thinking, they often demand a higher return for lending long term.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@Reuters When people say inflation is easing, I always wonder, "For whom?" 🤔 The last surge hit lower-income households much harder at the grocery store. That's a reminder that headline inflation and everyday experience aren't always the same.

[Marcus Reid @marxusreid]

@CNBC What stood out to me from Kashkari's comments is that he'd rather move slowly now than be forced into bigger hikes later. If he's right, a little more tightening today could mean a smoother path for borrowing costs down the road.