massimo_cherio

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

https://t.co/SMaqUowyE6

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

https://t.co/fZnlHcSBA5

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

https://t.co/SHcRGto6Bl

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Rockefeller won by owning the refineries.

AI has its own refineries: data centres and power.

Models grab attention.
But the few who control compute become the gatekeepers.
Different tech, same leverage.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

May 21’s weak 20Y auction signaled more than poor demand.
Rising long-end yields are now repricing sovereign bonds still held at book by banks.
Basel assigns a zero capital charge to “risk-free” government debt.
Markets are starting to disagree.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Eugene Fama, in his doctoral thesis, found 5-sigma events—meant to happen once every 3,000 years—were showing up every 3–4 years.

Wall Street still models risk with Gaussian illusions.

Mandelbrot warned us.

"Be coachable": @KeithMcCullough

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

1M rVol > 3M rVol for 6 straight days—vol regime shifting.
Instead of dampening moves, systematic flows are now chasing them. Negative dealer gamma accelerates swings, forcing liquidity to dry up right when it’s needed most.

Volatility clustering—Mandelbrot would be proud.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Tariffs don’t save jobs—they shift them, at a cost.

They mean:

Higher consumer prices
Lost export jobs
Economic inefficiency
If others subsidize exports, why complain? Dollars spent return as US demand or investment.

You don’t enrich a nation by making goods more expensive.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Privatization without accountability, turns reform into corruption. Stiglitz’s critique of 90s Czech privatization echoes today’s world, where post-Covid bailouts and subsidies sustained inefficiency without reform. Soft budget constraints remain the enemy of true capitalism.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Every time @KeithMcCullough and @dlacalle_IA have a conversation is like an anti mainstream vaccine… containing knowledge, “AHA moments” and so many insights

Admirable, especially for a 22 year old..being able to learn what CNBC doesn’t teach and learn from such professionals

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Kamala Harris’s unrealized gains tax is economic NONSENSE. Taxing “paper wealth” stifles investment, leading to layoffs and market crashes. The top 1% already pays 42.3% of taxes. This plan would devastate entrepreneurship, shrink 401(k)s, and cause long-term economic damage.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Imports don't subtract from GDP—they're added to consumption, investment, and gov’t purchases, then subtracted to avoid double-counting. Blocking imports can reduce GDP if they’re crucial for production, as seen with Trump's steel tariffs hurting U.S. manufacturers.

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

Mark my tweets...

Within 3-6 months, US #INFLATION will be re-accelerating ...

And the Fed will tell you "no one" saw it coming

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

For all the Phillips Curve enthusiasts... remember the 1970s? Stagflation shattered the myth: inflation and unemployment both rose due to oil price volatility (OPV). Higher OPV drove up production costs, cut growth, and caused economic turmoil, debunking mainstream theories.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

“Trump wins.. dollar up” against what? “China” .. okay but remember China has about 6 trillion of dollar assets.. so if China decides they don’t want to weaken the Yuan the Yuan will not weaken.. you are fighting against a big balance sheet of effect reserves.

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

@glamdringfohamr @MrRed77_ The Sahms rule minimal base rate adjustment due to the rolling window is outweighed by the current unemployment rate's significant impact. Even a small 3bps base rise is eclipsed by rates over 4.0%, causing the 3-month MA to rise. Confirming Andrea's analysis

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

SAHM RULE.. now at 0,43..
Looking at past recessions from 1950 onwards.. when a value over 0,39 comes out in 7/8 cases it goes to a value of 0,50 or higher. 7/9 cases economy is already in a recession and 8/9 cases economy is in recession the following month. @MrRed77_

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

@MrRed77_ @glamdringfohamr This is my Quant.. unfortunately he is not Chinese and didn’t win a Math competition, but he still manages 😂

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

Inflation is the price we pay for those government benefits everybody thought were free.

- Ronald Reagan

[massimo_cherio @massimo_cherio]

The old set of rules has become outdated ? A new gold playbook?

(IGWT Report)