Massimo Di Perna

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@rosanerofan Grazie mille

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@removangelista @removangelista trovi la fonte nella didascalia della slide che ti riporto qui di seguito:

Source: Airline financial reports, Massimo Di Perna analysis.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

EBIT AND EBIT MARGIN 9-MONTHS 2024 OF THE MAIN EUROPEAN AIRLINES

Highlights:

- Total revenue increased by around +4%
- EBIT result: -19% compared to the same period last year
- EBIT profit margin average: in decline from 9,6% to 8,3% vs same period LY.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

Cumulative EBIT data for carriers (part of an airline group) and LCCs are positive for almost 6,9bn€ in Q3 2024 with an average EBIT margin of 18,4% .
Highlights:
- Average EBIT margin for FSCs: 14,5%
- Average EBIT margin for LCCs: 25,4%

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@Scacciavillani ma guarda caso il trasporto aereo ha delle procedure standard ed uniformi che tutte le compagnie aeree devono seguire - sia FSCs che LLCs - e di conseguenza l’aereo è il mezzo di trasporto più sicuro che esiste nonostante la Sua percezione e i Suoi presunti “fatti”2/2

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@Scacciavillani Per fortuna la percezione non è la realtà, forse prima dovrebbe informarsi sulla differenza tra incidents, accidents e plane crashes in quanto se mi riporta quell’articolo allora dovrebbe mettere in dubbio la manutenzione di tutte le compagnie aeree 1/2

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@Scacciavillani Ci saranno investigation degli enti preposti con tecnici preparati che ci diranno se sono incidenti gravi o meno, la Sua percezione non ha nessun valore. Cordialità.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

Financial results for EU airlines in H1 24 are down by ~1,35bn€ compared to H1 23.
Cumulative EBIT for airlines (part of a group) and LCCs are positive by ~635M€ in H1 24 (down from ~2bn€ in H1 23) with an average EBIT profit margin of 1,2% (3,6% in H1 23).

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@marcogiovMG This is good point…however the initiative was successful and sold out, from the airline perspective it makes a lot of sense IMHO.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

3 KEY REASONS WHY WIZZ AIR “ALL YOU CAN FLY” MAKES SENSE

PR STUNT - the marketing initiative is generating free media coverage
CASH FLOW - the initiative generated ~€5M additional revenue.
1/3

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

This is costly for airlines and especially LCCs make great efforts to reduce the loss by pushing up the load factor. In few words, airline’ annual income statements do not have inventories so that their product can be sold the following year or better said on the next flight. 3/3

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

INCOME STATEMENT - A feature of the airline sector - unlike other industries - is that its product cannot be stored. Once a flight takes off, any empty seats are gone forever so lost revenue.
2/3

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

Positive financial results for EU airlines in Q2 2024 but down vs Q2 2023. Cumulative EBIT data are positive for ~2,7bn€ in Q2 2024 with avg EBIT margin of 8,5%, from 2,8% for Brussels Airlines to 15,3% for Iberia, Ryanair top performer for LCCs with EBIT margin of 10,1%.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

@aledeniz @AndreaGiuricin @aledeniz L’articolo è paywall quindi non riesco a darti un’opinione oggettiva , vedo se riesco ad approfondire. Grazie per segnalazione.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

EBIT AND EBIT MARGIN Q1 2024 OF THE MAIN EUROPEAN AIRLINES
Headwinds for EU airlines in Q1 2024

Accumulated EBIT data for carriers (part of an airline group) and LCCs is negative by almost 2bn€ in Q1 2024.

In the slide below are the profit margins for Q1 by airline.

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

with new rules for mergers and acquisitions.

OUTLOOK 2024

IATA’s estimate for EU airlines in 2024 is an EBIT margin of 6% but I am more optimistic than IATA so my forecast is for a profit margin of around 10% for 2024.

12/12

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

- TAP, after the excellent results of 2023, is much more attractive for 51% privatisation.
- AFKLM: speed up for SAS acquisition after 19,99% of initial shares.

Perhaps, all this will happen with the new EU government after the elections

11/12

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

for Italian taxpayers there would be a big risk for another bridge loan, another bad-co and again an extraordinary administration.
- Restart of the buying process from IAG/Iberia for Air Europa acquisition.

10/12

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

2023 was am exceptional year for Aviation both for the recovery of passengers vs 2019 - 94% globally and 95,5% in EU - but above all for financial performance.

Load Factors and yields have enabled large operating profit margins, in DEC 23 IATA estimated at 4,5% global 1/12

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

CONSOLIDATION 2024

I have always been in favour of EU consolidation, similar to what happened in US, so for this reason:

- I really hope that the EU approves the acquisition of ITA Airways by Lufthansa Group because ITA cannot survive stand alone and

9/12

[Massimo Di Perna @massimodiperna]

- Fuel price: Geopolitical tensions may impede supply and push fuel price increases but global average fuel price has been consistently around $100 per barrel in 2023 and with airlines ’ hedging policy I only expect a small upside in the worst case scenario.

8/12