MathematicianBetting

Guy Ward is a respected expert uk horse racing analyst.
His side kick Mick who posts here on X is much less respected but he is cheap so will have to do.

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Thanks for the interesting Palantir video Liam.
I was lucky to get into them at $26 about two years ago.
No huge skill on my part other than fortunate judgement of which
youtube stocks guru might actually be worth listening to back then.

Informative was how you analysed the bear / bull asymmetry.
+7% in a bull case and -55% for the bear.
I was however a bit confused as to what future point in time
these referred to?

Those figures might indicate I should at least shave
some of my position. That however is my gamble to decide upon.

Thinking out loud I can imagine a 2ndlayer to your calculations.
That being the % chance of Bull or Bear occurring by date X.

Those figures when combined with your own style then in effect guide to
the value or not of a punt on a particular stock.

Picture a mythical stock that is assessed as -50% if bear and + 50% if bull.
Buy or Sell? Who knows. A pure gamble.

Add in however that is has a 25% chance of bear and a 75% chance of bull
and that might steer one towards a speculative punt with an appropriate
portion of one’s funds. Repeat 100 times and if the stats worked out to perfection
you would have lost 50% 25 times and won 50% 75 times.
The net position would be well ahead.

Obviously easier said than done to produce such figures.
The most expert of experts would get them wrong a lot of the time.

The name of the game however would not be perfection.
More so increased edge over time via concentrating stock bets
on those where the figures indicate increased value edge.
Money not lost is also just as valuable as profit gained.

I can imagine in my head such a systematic approach.
Sadly I don’t have the stock assessment skills as yet to implement it.

So back to Plan B which is listening to youtube gurus
and taking the odd brave punt when what they say appears to
make some logical sense.

If all else fails there is always the more distasteful Plan C.
That is to offer my body up as Nancy Pelosi’s toy boy play thing.

Please keep up the good work and help save me from that.

Cheers
Mick

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

very true

semi similar to the concept of level stakes profits.
bar wanting to see positive edge at level stakes
how many pts level stakes were made is somewhat meaningless.

it only makes sense once you add to thinking what each
pt of profit is worth in terms of your overall bank.

I did a bit of number crunching about a year ago
on our own guy’s past advices.

What if every time he said each way instead
the stake was placed win only.

This increased both profit on turnover
and level stakes profits.

However using Kellyesque thinking about
compounding a bank indicated the higher
profit on turnover and higher level stakes
profit approach was worse.

In short lesser drawdowns with each way
permitted more aggressive staking.
Every point won then was more real world £ value.

So yup 100% agree that strike rate is not the be all and end all.
But if there were two methods both with 10% edge
the 30% strike rate choice would be better at bank building than
the 20% strike rate choice.
Standard Kelly style thinking I guess.

The old piece is here
https://t.co/A47VBADWt8

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Here is a link to an online copy of our free newsletter.

https://t.co/7LUTojRFCd

It includes a bit of research data into Saturday's
Mares Novice Handicap Hurdle at Newbury

#horseracing

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

I am not sure if this is inspired by the 16/1 ante post
we advised on Gaelic Warrior for the Gold Cup
or by the cruel gubbing dished out to ante post docket
holders of Fact To File in the Ryanair Chase.

Often it can be prudent to lay back some stake
to hedge your risk.

This little calculator with do the maths for you.

https://t.co/qehczVhVOq

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

@12Xpert Perhaps assume the biggest / most popular will be the one that has most impact on available odds. Then use a credible slightly different methosology alternate as input into setting one's own true odds calculations?

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Lemming Raping.

A good thing?
A bad thing?
Or an individual moral choice?

https://t.co/dqLxXoNVq9

#HorseRacing

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

November Handicap Trends

OLDER HORSES

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a poor 1-64 record in this
Only 1 has won since the 1970's
He was very lightly raced horse

EXPERIENCED / OVER EXPOSED

Horses with over 20 runs
Tend not to win this race
If you go back to 2004
Horses with over 20 runs
Have a poor 3-132 record

Lots more nuggets to assist with sorting
wheat from chaff in our free newsletter.

See online copy at

https://t.co/SIJzGhdmUC

#novemberhandicap #horseracing

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

@RacingPost Moray Smith sounds like an interesting bloke. I might even break open the piggy bank and go out and buy his book.

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Munster National on Sunday and ALSO believe it or not an early horse for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. See https://t.co/ynKDfWnEqA

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Anything that causes increased costs to punters
is never good in my book.
This feels a bit of a stealth tax on punters
imposed by Arena.
Punters will pay for it via increased bookmaker margins
or through decreased consumer choice should some
bookmakers not be able to accommodate the increased
Arena fees.

That said I would worry for MacBet if your idea
is to offer your punters a highly restricted palette
of courses they can bet at.

Is there another way?

I know zero about the details but two brainstorm ideas
for you to ponder and potentially dismiss as silly might be

#1 - running higher margin books only on Arena races.
Highly publicise the why and highlight to punters
why better value can be obtained on different courses.

#2 - Stick to your current methods but add on highly
publicised Arena tax fee to the stake on any Arena course selection.
( legalities of that to be checked )

Imagine if every bookie in the land did that.
Would it influence a change in punter behavior away from ARC courses?
And might that in turn influence change from Arena?

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

@JamesJohnLovell People should start submitting sponsership names
the BHA will probably veto. The veto then becomes news
possibly gainign more publicity than it would have done otherwise.
Inspired by the comments below, If I had a few £ to sponsor
I might propose...
"The Weak as Piss BHA Chase"

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

The latest newsletter provides some researched data for
Saturday's Greatwood Gold Cup and for the
Cheltenham Festival William Hill County Hurdle

https://t.co/c97ZAxyjSW

#CheltenhamFestival #HorseRacing

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Check out the latest betting research insights for the Eider Chase at https://t.co/kksheJTBio
- your edge for the big race!

# EiderChase #HorseRacing

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

Some researched stats and opinions on Saturday's Peter Marsh Chase.

https://t.co/KzD7J5MQ5c

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

@wayward_lad @chrisgambler247 @BetGameCouncil @BHAHorseracing @GamRegGB I am such a degenerate that it was not even my own money I gambled today.
It was money intended by granny for my kids.
It was done via a government endorsed gambling account called a junior ISA.

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

My phone is a 15 year old nokia.
It is a very very smart phone.
With calls and sms only
It hardly distracts me at all.

It is helpful that being such a miserable old git
no one ever hassles me with calls on it either :)

The Battery is rubbish however.
I have to charge it every single week.

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

I think racing could benefit long term from some
form of long term consistency of major race names.
Without that, it is more of a confusing jumble
that will make it harder for new followers
to grow to love the sport.

The short term cash of this years sponsor
is of course needed but I do think it comes
at long term cost.

I think it would actually benefit Coral if it were known
as The Coral Hennessy Gold Cup.

If in a few years time the sponsor was Betfair..
Then The Betfair Hennessy Gold Cup etc.

Tick the boxes of both this years funding and
protect race brand name tradition at the same time.

Coral could potentially get significant positive
praise if they themselves were to propose
such an idea for next year.
Their PR team could fill the pages of the RPost with tales
of how they want to protect the heritage of racing.
Bland would revert back to something with
brand recognition to many punters.

I think there is probably long term benefit in racing authorities running some
form of protected name regime for a group of certain races.

Picture them as the crown jewels of future racing marketing however
they have been taking needed cash from vandals with wallets who want to
spray paint all over the recognised names.

There should be some better middle ground.

Perhaps to be put forward for such consideration a sponsor
will have had to be in place for a long time. X years.

Just a bit of brain storming.

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

@chrisgambler247 @MonacoProtocol @RacingPost @leemottershead @ThomasKerrRP @RacingTV @nickluck @LydiaHislop @AKBets It would interesting to see stats over a longer duration. eg Is the above just continuance of long slow and steady decline or is the sharp dip from the point of affordability checks very very clear on the longer term chart?

[MathematicianBetting @mathbetting]

@chrisgambler247 @MonacoProtocol @RacingPost @leemottershead @ThomasKerrRP @RacingTV @nickluck @LydiaHislop @AKBets re "The whales will have to find other places to gamble"

Well I guess the government will encourage them
to go buy a wheelbarrow full of scratch cards.
No KYC or affordability checks there.