Doc.univ.,campi di inter.principali: pol.internazionale,nazione-società-cultura. Priorità reg. GR,LT,RO,RU,UCR,Arm.,DE,occasionalmente AL,CH,ES,FR,IT,Am. lat.
A recent analysis stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war goals were now unachievable. The report appeared to be a further sign of growing dissent at the top of Russia’s political establishment.
Read more here: https://t.co/J3sth9fcuv
France, the UK, Italy and the rest if the Free World stopped attending the Russian dictator's "Economic Forum" a decade ago, but the Taliban is there to full everyone's shoes.
Insightful WSJ piece by @DanielYergin on how it could take years before global energy flow returns back to “normal”, and yet global energy diversification is well underway:
“Overall, the Western Hemisphere now produces more oil than the Middle East did before the crisis. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. Brazil produces four times as much oil as Venezuela; and in Guyana, where production began only seven years ago, output almost equals Venezuela’s. In Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region, shale oil production has grown sixfold since 2020. The current disruption will propel more oil and gas investment in the Western Hemisphere and Africa.
Diversification goes beyond oil and gas. Responding to the “tanker war” during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, Saudi Arabia built variety in the form of a pipeline system that now moves 7 million barrels of oil a day west to the Red Sea. Abu Dhabi built a pipeline looping around the Strait of Hormuz and plans to double capacity by 2027. France, which once depended on oil for electric generation, now relies mainly on nuclear. Japan led the development of the LNG industry to push oil out of its electric generation. The growing scale of wind and solar adds further diversification for electric generation.”
https://t.co/ty4SpbOdKl
Vulnerabilities of the Iranian regime are primarily economic, so it either cuts a deal soon or seeks escalation to try to break out of this impasse.
It will struggle to cope with a long stalemate with occasional potshots that has no path to head off Iran's economic death spiral
Deutsche Außenpolitik der Vergangenheit bestand darin, es allen recht zu machen, alle Seiten zur Besonnenheit aufzurufen und sich mit (viel) Geld an allem zu beteiligen. Seit 2022 bezieht Deutschland Position und handelt zumeist entsprechend (und hier soll keine Bewertung der 1
2/ 'Donetsk MartynoVa' warns that all of Russia's gains in Ukraine are now at risk due to a "summer of bloody terror" being wrought by Ukraine's seeming air supremacy:
1/ The Russian occupation in Ukraine faces a "catastrophic" situation, according to alarmed Russian warbloggers. "Total drone terror" is now taking place across the entire occupied region, with no place being safe any more. ⬇️
https://t.co/kwuahx0iyR
36/ By now, she says, Donetsk is facing "total drone terror" which threatens the collapse of Russian control over occupied Ukraine.
https://t.co/PUUmGYD5r0
🚨 Full story: Hungary has lifted its two-year-long veto on Ukraine's bid to join the European Union, ending a political saga that sent relations between Budapest and Kyiv to an all-time low.
With @BertuzLuca.
https://t.co/2KNvn6hCsT
KUWAIT: Horrible scenes from Kuwait International Airport after #Iran drone and missile attack hit terminal. At least one killed, 8 injured, flights suspended
🇺🇦🇷🇺📉 The Moscow Times résume parfaitement le changement de récit en Russie : le Kremlin commencerait à préparer sa population à accepter l’idée qu’il est impossible de vaincre l’Ukraine.
La propagande russe tente désormais de transformer l’impasse en “victoire”, voire d’expliquer qu’une défaite pourrait malgré tout être bénéfique pour la Russie.
On est passés de “Kyiv en 3 jours” à “même perdre, c’est peut-être gagner”.
Quand un régime doit redéfinir la défaite pour la rendre acceptable, c’est que la réalité du front a déjà gagné contre la propagande.
SPAK bllokon transaksionin e investitorit të huaj në Zvërnec, reagon ashpër Rama: Vendimi arbitrar! Prokuroria të hetojë origjinën e pronës, por s’ka shans që investimi të ndalojë sa të jem unë këtu https://t.co/KeDxu7UnLj
SPAK, l'agenzia albanese anticorruzione ha bloccato la transazione di un investitore straniero a Zvërnec che si iscrive nell'agenda di sviluppo turistico di un "resort di elite" con participazione del clan di Trump. Si tratta di una città costiera sulla laguna e riserva naturale di Narta, a una decina di km a nord di Valona. Reazione brusca del premier Rama che qualifica quell'atto come "decisione arbitraria" che tuttavia non farebbe naufragare il progetto poiché "non c'è alcuna possibilità che l'investimento si fermi finché ci sarò io."
Eurozone headline inflation of 3.2% is skewed by relatively low prints in 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 (almost 50% weight). It is above that in 15/20 members. Core inflation is higher in 12/20 than for Eurozone average. People voting on rates have only one flag in their passport and it's not 🇪🇺.
Fixing manpower and finishing corps reform now falls to new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who replaced Denys Shmyhal in Jan.
The third logistics break is real. Turning it into strategic initiative needs money Kyiv can only raise through unpopular tax reform. 8X
Mid-range drones alone will not stop the offensive or hand Ukraine the initiative.
Manpower is still the bottleneck. The army needs pilots, engineers, infantry, and UGV crews for logistics and evacuation under fire. 7/
For the third time in this war, Ukraine is breaking Russia's logistics. HIMARS hit the rear depots in 2022. FPV drones saturated the front in 2023-24.
Now mid-range strike drones hit Russian supply lines 30 to 200 km deep — Hlib Husiev, Babel. 1/