Matt Brigida

Chief Economist @ Algorand Foundation and Professor and Finance/Accounting Chair @ SUNY Polytechnic Institute. Views are my own.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

ALGO's market microstructure didn't flinch during last week's selloff.

We tracked 25,310 trades from June 5–9 as ALGO fell 6.6% peak-to-trough. Liquidity didn't just hold, it tightened.

Roll's spread estimate dropped from 18 bps to 5 bps during the decline, while the Amihud price-impact proxy stayed low.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

AI and tech own the market narrative right now.

Shiller saw this clearly in 1984: stock prices are vulnerable to fads because there is "no accepted theory by which to understand the worth of stocks." https://t.co/nkaAvAEiL4
If that’s true for stocks, it's certainly true for crypto.

But the underlying thesis of open, programmable, global finance hasn't changed. Attention will rotate. The rails being built right now won't. We're laying some of those rails at Algorand.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

You can calculate VPIN from buyer/seller stamped trade data. It is a widely used measure of informed trading (see Easley, D., López de Prado, M., & O’Hara, M. (2011). "The Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading." Journal of Portfolio Management, 37(2), 118-128.). And pardon the delayed reply!

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

Been tracking $ALGO order flow since the quantum announcement. Recently, VPIN has increased alongside price.

In market microstructure, that’s the kind of fingerprint you’d expect from informed or urgency-driven accumulation. It isn’t proof, but it is a signal worth watching.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

Stakers bear real risk (token-price exposure, slashing, liquidity lockups) which the market compensates. That's not "doing nothing." Underprice it and you get an insecure network (Munger's logic cuts both ways).

A fair question is whether the marginal dollar goes to infra security or builder incentives. Agree Canton's 62/38 split is one answer worth watching.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@GoPlausible Thanks @GoPlausible! I'm going to give this a try now.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

Been using OpenClaw, and AI already feels like a natural interface to Algorand. I just ask for a payment in plain English and the agent executes it. Next up, swaps on Folks Router and Tinyman.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

Spent 3 hours today wrestling my snow tires off and putting on all-weather tires.

OpenClaw (running nothing but codex-5.1) took about a minute to discover Tinyman, configure itself, and swap testnet USDC for ALGO.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@AlgoFamily @alphaarcade @haydotapp Soon!

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@Lito7871 If you do, I'd be interested to hear how it goes. Hermes’ learning model seems especially well suited to crypto.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@AlgorandAddict I love that idea. It would be great to see SUNY schools run Algorand nodes, though the real challenge might be getting through the red tape. Hope you got to enjoy the snow in Utica yesterday!

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

How much was the Google Quantum AI mention worth to ALGO?

Roughly $302M, after backing out the broader crypto market move.

Algorand already had the technology. The paper got the market to price it.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

Update: ALGO's alpha hit 12% today alone. Total announcement-specific return now 39%, net of the crypto market.

4 days post-Google Quantum AI paper and still pricing it in. Textbook post-announcement drift. Other positive news increasingly a factor.
https://t.co/q2LKcKyAhl

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

ALGO rallied 26% around the Google Quantum AI whitepaper (after stripping out the crypto market factor effect).

Here is an interactive event study where you can choose your own estimation and event windows:
https://t.co/q2LKcKy2rN

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@artemis Thank you, happy to chat and compare notes anytime.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@artemis Also since the same names (HNT, Morpho, ARB, OP) show up across factors, I suspect your reported factors are spanned by the market and SMB.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@GovernorHat Exactly. The results suggest attention helps translate fundamentals into performance, so coordinated amplification makes sense.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

TVL alone doesn’t predict higher crypto returns, but TVL + fast X follower growth might. High minus Low port returns are positive and significant after controls. Evidence for social factors in pricing. https://t.co/wkrWDD2T4g

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@LoafPickle Your intuition on social factors was correct! I’ll see what I have for data on amm volume.

[Matt Brigida @mattbrigida2]

@GovernorHat Fair point. The goal isnt views today, but better policy tomorrow. Maybe I need that blue check after all?