Matt Buford

Amateur International Man of Mystery and Network Engineer @ Alert Logic

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@RobSquared74 @Barchart Biden shifted sales to happen a few years earlier, but those same sales were legally required to happen within the next few years anyway. Doesn't make much difference if it got sold in 2022 or 2023-2027. That same oil would have been sold by now even without Biden.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@gronko63 @GasBuddyGuy Depends on what you mean by "didn't happen." Trump didn't get the full 270M of SPR draining he asked for, but he did get 100M of SPR draining added to the 2018 budget act.
https://t.co/UqXqKQwrER

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@gronko63 @GasBuddyGuy So, the totals are:

SPR buy: Trump requested 70M and got 0.1M
SPR sell: Trump requested 270M and got 100M

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@gronko63 @GasBuddyGuy It was in Trump's FY2018 budget proposal:

https://t.co/4CCMcY6UMr

In the actual FY2018 budget that got passed, Congress ordered a smaller 100M sold from the SPR between 2022 and 2027. That 100M was then sold during Biden's term.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@gronko63 @GasBuddyGuy If you're going to mention that, you should also remind people that Trump asked Congress to drain the SPR down to 270M barrels and permanently shut down half of the SPR sites.

Congress partially blocked him on this too, agreeing to sell a smaller 100M barrels.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@_Locke_XX @300Warwolf @ukraine_map @fura638125 The result was a big, but short lived deviation. In the long term, the SPR was unchanged by Biden's actions.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@_Locke_XX @300Warwolf @ukraine_map @fura638125 Biden did mess with the schedule though, executing sales originally planned for 2023-2027 early in 2022. But, when you execute sales early, that doesn't drain it any more than it would have been drained anyway. It just drains it a few years earlier.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@MPelso @J_Slayin2day @acnewsitics Biden release breakdown:

* Biden sold 40M
* Biden+Congress rescheduled 140M of Congress sales from 2024-2027 into 2022
* Biden loaned out 32M
* Congress sold 16.7M in 2021
* Congress sold 38M in 2022
* Congress sold 26M in 2023

Total: 292.7M
Observed SPR drop: 291.3M

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@MPelso @J_Slayin2day @acnewsitics Biden's "refill" was never about replacing the barrels that Congress ordered sold. It was about replacing the barrels that he ordered sold without a Congressional mandate. And he did that, replacing 40M sold with 60M purchased. No funding from Congress was needed.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@MPelso @J_Slayin2day @acnewsitics Biden executed many mandated sales several years early. That money was taken away. But he also sold 40M barrels extra, not associated with any Congressional mandate. That money stayed at the DOE. He used that money to buy back 60M barrels. He didn't have to ask Congress.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@MPelso @J_Slayin2day @acnewsitics In his first term, Trump was limited by Congress in both directions:

In 2017, Trump asked Congress to sell 270M barrels, but only got ~100M of future mandated sales passed into law.

In 2020, Trump asked Congress to buy 77M barrels, but only got 0.1M of purchases.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@MPelso @J_Slayin2day @acnewsitics Which, of course, is exactly what you'd expect to see from an SPR that Congress ordered be drained. Even back in 2018, the EIA's SPR forecast showed it would reach this "lowest levels in history" threshold around 2024.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@fenrir1919 @greg16676935420 A Big Mac and large fries (but no drink) is usually $4.99 in the app for me. Tax does take it a little over $5 though.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@MPelso @J_Slayin2day @acnewsitics Biden did create a short term deviation, but since that oil was going to be sold anyway (just a few years later), the difference is only temporary, and the level soon reverts back to where it would be if Biden never touched it.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@JoanneW10821295 @wfaa The Texas grid does not quite cover all of Texas. This news story is about issues in the part of Texas that are not on the Texas grid. You can see below the parts of Texas not on the Texas grid.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@Geiger_Capital Note that this analysis assums Trump performs his full 172M exchange, which so far has not gotten full contracts awarded. So, maybe it will dip less, then rise less than shown. Or, maybe the war will continue and he'll do more than 172M, making a bigger dip and bigger rise.

[Matt Buford @mattbuford]

@Geiger_Capital Both presidents caused big short term deviations, but have not dramatically changed the SPR's long term forecast.

blue = SPR if presidents only executed legally required sales

red = how Biden's early execution of mandated sales deviated

green = how Trump's exchanges deviated