🇪🇺Ursula von der Leyen regarding the energy crises in Europe:
“The cheapest energy is the one you don't use. Stay home, don't drive, don't use electricity.”
I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong
1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's
2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal package or reconcilliation
3) Manipulation of the Treasury Issuance such that they issue less duration and more bills, and Fed Balance sheet manipulation - These things are really bad for USD
4) AI ROI for all spenders on picks and shovels surprises on the upside vs already lofty earnings expectations AND margin doesnt come from firing workers.
5) Fed cuts short rates more than expected
6) Investors, companies, and banks lever up more than expected to invest and consume (Animal spirits accelerate and persist.) Which absorbs the massive overhang of issuance of government bonds, corporate bonds, IPO's etc which elevated growth expectations depend without a decline in prices, rise in yields.
Four signs the high is in for the S&Ps for the next four or five years
1. Last March I made the case on X that S&Ps would develop a 5-yr trading range from 4,500 to 7,000
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Keep reading
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Four signs the high is in for the S&Ps for the next four or five years
1. Last March I made the case on X that S&Ps would develop a 5-yr trading range from 4,500 to 7,000
✅
Keep reading
⬇️