MattFolio Research 🎾

Systematic pricing dislocations in low-liquidity tennis markets. Entry vs. vig-free fair on every position. Full trade log public. *NFA*

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Bang already up 30%

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

🎾 ATP Estoril QF
Burruchaga vs Blockx
Did the Burruchaga ML mid-game

Lotto, keep adjust size accordingly

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

6-leg on Kitzbühel + Estoril

Bublik
Halys
Burruchaga
Darderi
Rublev
Gaston

Halys and Burruchaga I have edge in, and I think they’ll perform.

Let’s see how this ages tomorrow, goodnight 😴

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Bang! 60% now holding till full profit

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Live on Holmgren at ATP Challenger Winnipeg.
Holmgren vs Draxl – third set.
Currently 30¢ on Kalshi. Took some at 20¢.
Still a path, but this is pure variance. Size accordingly.

Lotto only, don’t risk heavy

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Just locked first green of the day.
$25 → $46.81 on the 4-leg
Michelsen ✅
Darderi ✅
Jones ✅
Chidekh still live @ 95%
Small but clean. More coming.

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Last play of the day I think unless we find something for MLB I like

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

🎾 HIGH CONVICTION COMBO

Winnipeg Challenger • Hard

Clement Chidekh** vs Hayato Matsuoka (R16)
Market 75-76% → Model 81%

August Holmgren vs Liam Draxl (R16)
Market 45-46% → Model 53%

Combo market ~34% → Model ~43%
Clear positive EV
$25 unit.

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bigger dud than Coleman Wong. Dude gives up so easily so I’m lowkey adding this to my no go list.

Still some life left in this game though

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Coleman Wong ML (vs J.J. Wolf, Bloomfield Hills hard)
App ~62%. My est. 64-68% true prob.
Why? Better ranking (~#108-112 vs Wolf ~#263 PR), recent strong win, and hard-court fit. Clear edge in current form/level. Solid ~60% spot with value.
$25 on Wong ML. ✅🎾

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Today’s Highest Conviction Combo ($25 position):

• Luciano Darderi ML (vs Martinez, Estoril clay)
• Francesca Jones ML (vs Bulgaru, Palermo clay)
• Clement Chidekh ML (vs Matsuoka, Winnipeg hard)
• Alex Michelsen ML (vs Harris, Bloomfield Hills hard)

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

My picks for Estoril + Kitzbuhel tomorrow on Kalshi 🎾
5-leg combo:
• Rublev (Estoril)
• Krejcikova (Prague)
• Navone (Kitzbuhel)
• Erel (Segovia)
• Faria (Estoril)
Strong edges on form & surface.

Follow for more plays. ✅

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

My picks for Estoril + Kitzbuhel tomorrow on Kalshi 🎾
5-leg combo:
• Rublev (Estoril)
• Krejcikova (Prague)
• Navone (Kitzbuhel)
• Erel (Segovia)
• Faria (Estoril)
Strong edges on form & surface.

Follow for more plays. ✅

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

@HieldYanni5807 Yeah rice absolutely sold

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Fun little 4-leg combo I threw on Kalshi 🎾⚾
• Keegan Rice (84%)
• LA Dodgers ML (81%)
• Minnesota ML (80%)
• Tampa Bay ML (43%)
$9.86 to win $37.65 max
Low risk, solid edge on most legs. Letting it ride.
Follow for more plays tonight.

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Solid day on Kalshi 🎾
Closed three tennis positions clean:
• Lajal + Samuel combo
• Tiago Torres
• Alex Molcan
$112.90 risked → $178.06 returned (+$65)
Staying disciplined with these ATP Challenger edges.
Follow for tonight’s plays.

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

BANG! 💰
Just hit a clean 2-market combo on Kalshi 🎾
• Mark Lajal ✅ (Bloomfield Hills)
• Toby Samuel ✅ (Winnipeg)
$17.52 → $41.94

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

2-leg Tennis Combo cooking on Kalshi 🎾
• Mark Lajal (57%) vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz @ ATP Challenger Bloomfield Hills (hard)
• Toby Samuel (71%) vs Yosuke Watanuki @ ATP Challenger Winnipeg (hard)
Lajal in strong recent form on hard, Samuel the clear favorite with solid H2H edge.

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Bang! 💰 Combo already up 2x — Blockx, Bondar, Zhang, Smith, Kokkinakis & Kabbaj all looking strong.
$30 → $193 potential still live. Personally holding for the full payout. 🎾

[MattFolio Research 🎾 @mattfolio]

Locked in this 6-leg Kalshi combo:
• Blockx (Kitzbuhel clay)
• Kabbaj (Palermo)
• Bondar (Hamburg)
• Zhang (Winnipeg)
• Smith (Bloomfield Hills)
• Kokkinakis (Bloomfield Hills)
$25 → $140 payout on these strong favorites with solid form/surface edges. 🎾‼️