Matthew T Ayers

Investor, adviser, golfer, dad. Not in that order.

[Matthew T Ayers @matthewtayers]

@elonmusk @PeterDiamandis While I was with Deutsche Bank, I sat at @elonmusk ‘s desk at SpaceX in 2013 to discuss a margin loan rate with Elon. He told me then, Tesla would likely be the most valuable company in the world some day. I traded it but didn’t hold long term. Won’t be making that mistake again

[Matthew T Ayers @matthewtayers]

@bensig Tag team?

[Barry Svrluga @barrysvrluga]

Anyone watching the golf right now has to be impressed by Wyndham Clark's play. Anyone who has followed Clark's career knows progress isn't linear.

All those lessons -- and more -- are available in this new book from Julie Elion, Clark's mental coach.

https://t.co/hZQ97dmHzH

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

The "AI job loss" narratives are all fake. AI = massive ramp in productivity = massive ramp in demand = massive jobs boom. Watch.

[Mr Family Office @MrFamilyOffice]

The cost of opening a Single Family Office

+ cost trends below

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

👀

[Balaji @balajis]

This point by @FinnMurphy12 also has truth to it: even the possibility of mass layoffs due to AI may break what remains of the American social contract, which was already hanging by a thread.

Recall that the US left hates tech for being white male capitalists. And much of the right simultaneously dislikes tech for being nonwhite immigrant globalists. But the wealth, productivity, and job-creating ability of tech has given them some partial shield…

…till now. It’s quite possible that the AI disruption layered on top of everything else is the straw that breaks the camel’s back, where the bottom falls out of American support for Silicon Valley. With all the violent consequences that one might imagine.

The problem is that the world won’t stand still.

If America turns anti-tech, which I consider likely, it’ll be similar to how Europe just couldn’t really handle the disruption of the Industrial Revolution that it helped give birth to, and consequently lost their minds in the early 20th century. However, the younger and more supple American economy of the 1900s did manage to handle that disruption, with the Soviets as the arguable runner ups. They emerged dominant as a consequence.

Today, early 21st century America is like early 20th century Europe, in that it’s given birth to an Information Revolution that it just might not be able to handle whilst remaining intact. The only two economies that can handle said disruption appear to be (a) China and (b) the Internet itself.

(PS: it is also possible, by the way, that the AI disruption is partially overstated. But it’s really not completely imaginary…because the self-driving cars, kung fu robots, and intelligent agents actually do exist now.)

[Balaji @balajis]

This is the first AI cut.
And it will send shockwaves.

Remember: Jack is one of the greatest founders of all time. He created this platform that we’re all on, and has been early to many technological shifts. And Block was doing very well as a business.

So, for him to cut 40% of headcount in this way is a signal to everyone in tech: get good now. Become indispensable. Work nights and weekends. Learn the AI tools and raise your game. Or you might not make the cut, as an employee or as a company.

I know. That sucks. But capitalism is natural selection. The market is unforgiving, because you are the market. After all, it’s not like you’re buying some random gallon of milk from the store; you’re always buying the best product at the best price.

So too for apps: your customers are always installing the best piece of code they can get. And because AI is going to create new winners, if you aren’t the best in your market, someone may become better with AI. Particularly with the new agentic workflows.

To be clear: Block’s severance is generous by any measure. 20 weeks of pay, six months of health insurance and vested equity, all of that goes far beyond any typical package. Jack did his level best to cushion the disruption. The laid off are a temporarily unfortunate class, as opposed to a permanent underclass.

But had he not leaned into the AI transition, he might have had to lay off more people, slowly, and over time, as faster competitors went after his market share.

How would they do that? Sure, AI isn’t a panacea by any means, but the closer you are to software engineering the more aggressively you need to embrace agentic workflows. The AI companies are already doing that, and places like Stripe, Shopify, Coinbase, and now Block are pushing hard on this area.

There will be overcorrection. But the fundamental technical innovation is real. And you need to either disrupt yourself or get disrupted.

[Mark Cuban @mcuban]

There are generally 2 types of LLM users, those that use it to learn everything , and those that use it so they don’t have to learn anything.

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

.@collision and I interviewed @elonmusk.

0:00:00 - Orbital data centers
0:36:46 - Grok and alignment
0:59:56 - xAI’s business plan
1:17:21 - Optimus and humanoid manufacturing
1:30:22 - Does China win by default?
1:44:16 - Lessons from running SpaceX
2:20:08 - DOGE
2:38:28 - TeraFab

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

California's wealth tax will follow the same pattern as every other tax:

1. target "just the rich"

2. set a precedent

3. expand to everyone else

Except this tax is even more corrupt because it allows the state to seize *assets* not just income

In 1913, only the 1% paid income tax, now everyone does.

This will destroy California's innovation, and backfire on the people voting for it.

True Bolshevik move

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Apollo just released a 126 page report on the state of the housing and real estate market

Some charts that caught my eye

🧵

1/ Average monthly mortgage payment on a new 30 year mortgage now sits at $2665

[Bitcoin Junkies @BitcoinJunkies]

🇺🇸 California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a bill allowing the state to transfer custody of any Bitcoin or cryptocurrency held on exchanges after three years of inactivity.

Under the law, inactive accounts on centralized exchanges are classified as "unclaimed property."

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

The media is making a big deal about the Dow Jones closing above $49,000 for the first time. But with gold closing above $4,490, today’s 49,462 close is worth just 11 ounces of gold. In Sept. 1999, the Dow was worth over 43 ounces of gold. That’s a 74% decline over 26 years.

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Watch this before making any trades this week

[Matthew T Ayers @matthewtayers]

Solid advice

[Kevin Dahlstrom @Camp4]

Today I turn 55.

I’m the fittest, sharpest, and happiest I’ve ever been.

If I’m an outlier, it’s not because I’m built different or discovered a secret formula. The truth is far less glamorous:

It’s a million tiny choices, compounded over decades.

Here are 55 of them:

1. Walk 15+ miles a week, even if you do other exercise. Humans are uniquely made to move slowly over long distances—it’s critical to longevity.

2. Develop a writing practice. It’s the single best way to sharpen your mind. And remember, you don’t have to be a good writer to write. Start with 10 minutes a day.

3. Swap out your toothpaste, deodorant, lotions, soap, shampoo, and other personal care products for natural versions. Here’s a rule of thumb: Don’t put anything on your skin that you couldn’t safely eat.

4. If you have a positive thought about someone, don’t keep it to yourself—share it immediately. Encouragement defies the laws of physics: When you give energy, you also receive it.

5. Wear shoes with a wide forefoot (I like Topo Athletic) and wear toe spreaders around the house (search “yoga toes” on Amazon). Spine health begins with the feet.

6. Get sunlight regularly. Moderate sun exposure (without sunscreen) is hugely important for overall health.

7. Do a 3-minute deep (“ass to grass”) squat every morning. Deep squats are often called the anti-aging exercise. It’s been said that, “It’s not that you can’t do deep squats because you’re old, it’s that you’re old because you can’t do deep squats.”

8. Explore minimalism (it’s not what you think it is).

9. Set boundaries on toxic relationships. We tend to cling to relationships past their expiration date, and it takes a bigger toll on our health than we recognize.

10. Eat real food. Not too much. Don’t eat garbage. Binge occasionally. Fast occasionally. That’s the diet.

11. Learn about FIRE. It’s a great framework for financial success.

12. Don’t take antibiotics except in emergency situations. They’re massively over-prescribed and aren’t needed in most cases. Antibiotics have done untold damage to our guts, which is where health begins. Great natural alternatives are out there.

13. Get 8 hours of quality sleep each night. To optimize sleep:
—Don’t eat after 6pm
—Get blackout shades and cover LEDs with black tape
—No screens 2 hours before bed
—Try ashwagandha (an herb) to calm the nervous system

14. Stop drinking, even in moderation. People find all sorts of ways to justify drinking, but there’s no escaping the simple fact that alcohol is a toxin and it limits your potential.

15. Travel as much as possible. Nothing expands the mind like seeing the world. And travel doesn’t have to be expensive—the best experiences happen outside of fancy resorts, when you live like a local.

16. Let go of resentment. When you forgive someone, you release the prisoner, and the prisoner isn’t them… it’s you.

17. Show up on time, every time. Poor time management limits success more than most people realize. If you struggle with punctuality, stop everything else and fix that first.

18. Spend lots of time in nature and touch the earth. Humans evolved over 300k years to live in harmony with nature, and only recently have we retreated indoors. If you don’t spend time outside, you’re fighting biology (hint: You won’t win.)

19. Stop doing dumb things. As Leo Tolstoy said, “People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing—refusing to participate in activities that make life bad.”

20. Find your happy place and (eventually) move there. Most people live where they live because... that's where they live. We are products of our environment—choose yours carefully.

21. Find a hobby and pursue mastery. You can’t have a happy life without a passionate pursuit that isn’t your vocation. Your work—even if you enjoy it—isn’t enough.

22. Avoid mainstream medicine except as a last resort. The results are in—our healthcare (or more appropriately, sick care) system is badly broken and only makes people sicker.

23. Have a mindset of abundance. There is no advantage to being a pessimist—even if you’re right, it’s a miserable way to live. In a very real way… whatever you believe, you’re right!

24. Do hard things. Choose courage over comfort. Everything you want is on the other side of fear and hard work. As Jerzy Gregorik said, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”

25. Ignore haters. Hurt people hurt people. Negative/toxic people live in a prison of their own design. Don’t join them!

26. Say no. Protect your time and energy like it’s your most precious asset… because it is.

27. Become a water snob. As an alien said on Star Trek, humans are “ugly bags of mostly water.” You are what you drink—literally! We have Mountain Valley Spring water delivered in glass 5-gallon jugs and also have whole-house water filter (Aquasana Rhino).

28. Stop drinking sodas and sugary energy drinks. After a few weeks you won’t miss them, and a few months later they’ll seem disgusting. Refined sugar causes inflammation, which is the root of most disease.

29. If you’re over 35, find a good functional/longevity medicine doctor and start tracking your hormones. Modern life is hell on the endocrine system and restoring healthy hormone levels can change your life. As we get older, we either accept a slow decline in performance or we do something about it—choose the latter!

30. Develop a morning routine and follow it faithfully. Win the morning, win the day!

31. Invest in experiences, not things. People frequently regret buying things, but rarely regret investing in great experiences (especially when shared with loved ones). Remember, there’s nothing you can buy in a mall that you’ll remember in ten years.

32. Explore spirituality. It’s arrogant and small-minded to believe there’s nothing going on in our universe that is beyond our comprehension. We know less about our universe than an ant meandering on a sidewalk understands about this planet.

33. Have a strong bias toward action—doing rather than talking. If you ask a bunch of old people about their regrets, they’ll talk about the things they *didn't* do—the shots they didn’t take—more than the things they did do (even if it went wrong). As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Most people don’t take enough shots.

34. Stay lean. Men in particular are obsessed with muscle mass these days, but bulk doesn’t age well. The goal is to be strong but lean. The fittest guys in their 50s and beyond aren’t meatheads, they’re lean guys who are serious about a sport.

35. Curate your inner circle carefully. Surround yourself with people you admire and who challenge you to grow. Remember, we’re the average of our 5 closest relationships.

36. Be the fittest version of yourself. Your body is your only vessel for experiencing life—so treat it as such. Fitness isn’t working out a few times a week, it’s a lifestyle. The older you get, the more time you need to devote to your health.

37. Take the time to appreciate art and beauty in all its forms.

38. Think globally, but act locally. Too many people put their energy into far-away problems they don’t understand and can’t impact, while ignoring problems right under their nose. Want to change the world? Start at home.

39. Try psychedelics. It’s one of those things everyone should do at least once, and it might be the breakthrough you’ve been looking for.

40. Limit bad habits, including unhealthy thought patterns. We all have them—practice avoidance and find substitutes. Get professional help if needed.

41. Be a lifelong learner. Your brain is just like a muscle—if you don’t feed and flex it regularly, it will atrophy.

42. Find your purpose. People with a strong sense of purpose are happier and live longer. Lack of purpose sucks energy and magnifies depression.

43. Only take advice from people who embody the traits you want to have. Talk is cheap—emulate those who have DONE it.

44. The goal is not to retire and do nothing, it’s to build a great day-to-day life that you don’t need to escape. A life of leisure is a slow death. Happiness isn’t possible without a little struggle, uncertainty, and skin in the game.

45. Have fun! Do frivolous and silly things that make you smile. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.”

46. Whatever you want to do or achieve in life, start NOW. Don’t fall victim to “someday thinking” because someday never comes.

47. Accumulate assets—things that grow in value over time. It’s the #1 habit of rich people, and it can be done in tiny chunks. Instead of spending $100 on an impulse purchase that has no lasting value, put that money into an index fund or Bitcoin. It becomes addictive (in a good way).

48. Don’t ignore the big 3 canaries in the coal mine for health:
—Low libido (and ED)
—Frequent sinus & respiratory issues
—Depression
These usually aren’t medical conditions in themselves, they’re symptoms of an underlying problem. Find a good doc (outside of the mainstream) and figure out the root cause.

49. Have a clear vision for your future. How can you decide which direction to go if you haven’t clearly defined the destination? It sounds obvious, but 95% of people haven’t defined their “Ideal End State” in detail and in writing. (Check out my thread on this topic.)

50. Make your own decisions. We live in an era where most of what society tells us is wrong. Don’t be afraid to break from societal norms—if people say you’re crazy, it’s a sign that you’re doing something right.

51. Get hardcore about mobility exercise. As you age, it’s usually the knees, hips, and lower back that limit physical performance. 30 min a couple times a week can spare you a lifetime of pain. YouTube is a great resource.

52. Go all in on family. Get married, stay married, have kids. Burn the boats. In the end, family is all that matters.

53. Be ruthless with your time. Money comes and goes. Time only goes. Audit your calendar ruthlessly—cut the trivial, double down on the meaningful, and spend your hours like your life depends on it. (Because it does.)

54. Have a strong bias toward action. Be curious, try things, meet people—it’s how you increase your surface area for serendipity, the most powerful unseen force in our lives.

55. Reinvent yourself every decade. Over time, we slowly drift off course from our priorities, values, and true identity. Take stock and don’t be afraid to hit the reset button. Bold, calculated moves made for the right reasons almost always pay off—usually even more than you can imagine.

🎁 P.S. If you enjoyed this post, would you give me a birthday gift? Repost or comment with the item number(s) you liked best?

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern era.

Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment.

Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates they will understate depreciation by $176 billion 2026-2028.

By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, META by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th. Stay tuned.

[Matthew T Ayers @matthewtayers]

@PromptLLM “We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”

Will Durant, The story of philosophy 1926 (commonly misquoted as Aristotle)

[Marcelo P. Lima @MarceloLima]

Wow

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Sometimes, we see bubbles.
Sometimes, there is something to do about it.
Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.