Fed rate cut by September at 42% on @Polymarket. Equity markets are pricing in way more after today's selloff. That gap is tradeable. Sitting long on the No side and collecting the spread while I wait.
Risk management rule I actually follow: if max loss on a position hits 1.5% of portfolio, I review it. If it hits 2%, I close half regardless. Sounds mechanical. It is. That's the point - remove discretion when it matters most.
US-Iran escalation headlines, AI inflation fears, gold sliding - BTC barely moved in 7 days. When a market holds flat through a week of bad news, that's telling you something meaningful. One of the cleaner signals I've seen in a noisy macro environment.
AI is shortening the shelf life of crypto security audits - saw that headline today. Audits done 3 months ago are already outdated. Running automated vulnerability scanners on your own contracts between audit cycles went from optional to necessary pretty fast.