Olivia
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Maximilian Hartinger
@MaxHartinger
Head of Research @TradencyRS | Macro strategy, quantitative analysis, and market dynamics.
Joined December 2023
7 Following
3.1K Followers
4.6K Posts
@Ramrod91215808 Found it by accident. Wasn't even plan, but i just had to walk it.
The journey is the destination.
@Yogi81dutch Thanks mate looking forward to see your progress along the way.
Same to you. ✌️
A glimpse of what’s coming.
Developing a custom Alpha Terminal to bring institutional-grade precision to high-conviction allocations.
No noise. No clutter. Just systematic clarity.
While market analysis will become a secondary pillar on this channel, those who value capital efficiency will still find pure signal here. ⌛️
@Yogi81dutch Appreciate it, JC. I’m not chasing algorithms.
I’m building actual substance. The right people will find it.
A break from the markets and the internet sets priorities straight.
It’s a strange, artificial secondary world that people spend 8+ hours in nowadays. I did as well, even though I never really intended to.
Making money online dragged me into it, and sooner rather than later, I was hooked by the constant need for stimulation and information.
With active market involvement, extended screen time suddenly felt justified. I was always someone rooted in the real world before that, so I could clearly feel the toll it took on my quality of life.
No matter how much money I made, I worried about making more or protecting what I had. No matter how well-informed I was, there was always more to "learn." It was a dark state to live in, never truly satisfied, never really present, gradually losing connection to the real world.
Algorithms dictating people's lives is no longer a dystopian projection: It’s reality.
People fall asleep with podcasts in their ears next to their loved ones. They watch videos while cooking and eating, stay alert 24/7 to trade, or game to suppress anxiety. How is anyone supposed to hear their own thoughts, let alone learn to accept or master them, when an outside voice is constantly drowning them out?
An 8-hour average screen time represents 50% of our waking hours. Let that sink in: Half of our conscious life spent mostly consuming for most. Rates of existential anxiety and depression are rising, and people wonder where it comes from. To me, after a hard break, it’s crystal clear: It’s the screens.
Constant comparison, constant stimuli, and an endless impulse to stay hyper-informed while life flies by at record speed. On the other side, the "experts" selling all of it are trapped in the same machinery, creating nothing but noise to accumulate more capital.
Swap screens for boredom. Swap online interactions for real human connection. Swap financial anxiety for building something really meaningful, and life suddenly becomes vibrant again.
There are almost certainly loved ones you haven't spent as much time with as they deserve. Go out there and give the real world the gift of your presence.
In the end, it's a gift to yourself, really.
No catch. I am changing my identity to transition away from the repetitive noise and false promises of retail trading.
I built this tool primarily for my own workflow, so sharing it publicly carries no additional cost. It systematically eliminates recurring questions and serves as the infrastructure foundation for Tradency Research.
After accumulating throughout the summer, $META has become my largest position.
Trading at ~24x P/E, -30% from USD ATHs and with 20%+ YoY growth, META was systematically undervalued.
Whenever sentiment sours on Zuckerberg, it historically yields the ultimate contrarian buy signal.
I will scale out once momentum fades to reallocate into the next undervalued blue chip.
Until then, I'm simply enjoying the ride.
Added some $META to the portfolio at $584.
Gap&0.618&Liquidity above unprotected highs.
Invalidation below recent lows.
@KKoifischer Thanks mate.
It provides full visibility into overnight liquidity and true market structure, allowing you to track precise key levels and session sweeps before the regular trading session opens.
@1konsta Valid point on ad cyclicality.
META is a core holding in my portfolio framework, but I use refined trading tactics to actively trim at key HTF levels rather than passively riding out deep drawdowns.
https://t.co/nKPAhUmfcg
If you're hesitating to build long-term investment positions because you've been burned by crypto volatility, this post is for you.
Take a look at the data:
· 26 years of compressed data in one picture.
· 9,300 days of a secular bull run starting in 1974.
· More than two decades of macro upside following a 20-year sideways grind.
Imagine how many people stayed fully sidelined, calling the "top" at every minor correction.
Secular runs can last much longer than your patience. It pays to stay on the right side of the macro trend. People say you can't time the market because those who try usually end up too cautious. They try to outsmart one simple, historical truth:
Real markets trend up the majority of the time.
Yes, there will be brutal corrections along the way. Eventually, we will face a prolonged HTF range and a drawdown of 50% or more.
But if you catch the right side of the trend early enough, like the 26-year, 2,000% run shown here, even a massive bear market won't destroy you.
Remember: This isn’t crypto, where a 50% dump is just a typical Tuesday. In equities, that's a generation-defining buying opportunity.
The only people who get absolutely rekt are those who FOMO in at the absolute macro top.
Are we late in the current cycle? Maybe. It’s always smart to scale out and extract capital when the market gets boiling hot. But until the chart proves otherwise, fighting the primary trend is a losing battle.
The wildest stat? During that entire 26-year run, only $1.3T in volume was traded. Today, single tech stocks are worth nearly three times that amount.
That is the raw power of fiat inflation. A perpetual bull run in equities isn't magic, it's mechanics. In a system built on endless money printing, the only way to preserve your purchasing power is to stay invested in hard assets.
The current macro run, born out of the 2008 financial crisis, tells an incredible story:
Duration: It has been climbing for around 6,300 days.
Capital: It has absorbed over $13T in volume, a staggering ten times more liquidity than the previous era.
Performance: We are currently sitting roughly 950% above that secular low.
Statistically speaking, this bull market could run for another 3,000 days and it still wouldn't break historical precedents. Have we seen painful corrections along the way? Absolutely. But so far, every single dip has ultimately turned out to be a great buying opportunity.
People frequently say the SPX has never looked like this and that's exactly why we must crash. I highly recommend actually looking at the charts first. Valuations might be significantly higher than ever before, but so is the global money supply and the sheer number of people participating in these markets today.
This parabolic expansion won’t last forever.
We are likely entering or have already entered the most vertical, aggressive phase of the macro cycle, the kind that inevitably comes tumbling down sooner or later. Enjoy the trend while it lasts, but don't get blinded by the green. It is officially time to look for structural hedges and avoid getting too careless.
But until the trend officially breaks? The data says you stay on the right side of the tracks. Don't try to outsmart a secular bull market.
So many people have been completely broken by their crypto experiences, both financially and mentally.
Because of crypto's extreme, unnatural volatility, a generation of traders started to believe it was the only asset class capable of generating life-changing wealth.
But that’s the ultimate trap. If you stay completely on the sidelines out of fear, you get silently hollowed out by fiat inflation. Eventually, crypto-only investors will wake up to the steady, compounding power of the stock market.
In fact, that rotation is happening right now.
Look no further than major crypto venues launching USDT.P pairs for equities. Capital is actively migrating from pure crypto speculation into the stock market.
We are likely entering the most treacherous window of this macro cycle. This is the phase where the next secular bear market will reach its claws down to swallow late-comers unrealised gains whole.
The stock market will find its absolute macro top the moment every single human with an international bank account and a brokerage app is forced into US equities.
Crypto may have just been the ultimate distraction. A hyper-volatile playground meant to hook the younger generation with rebellion tech, condition them to normalise extreme financial risk, and prime their minds to walk right into the traditional market's largest trap, right before they pull the plug.
But for those who stayed on the right side of history and positioned themselves at the secular macro low? They are fundamentally insulated. At this stage of systemic inflation, prices will likely never drop back to those entry points ever again.
So, what’s the best way to play this?
It's actually simple: Get educated on how real markets move and master the HTF game.
Scale out: Take profits gradually when the market overextends and runs boiling hot.
Scale in: Reallocate capital into bigger orders every time the index drops 5%+.
What if the chart keeps printing LLs? Easy. You step aside, sit on your hands, and let the volatility unwind. Once the macro trend confirms to the upside again, you simply hop back in.
If you apply this exact framework to the core chunk of your portfolio, you are already pacing ahead of the average investor. You can always layer active trading or hedging on top if you have the time and the mental bandwidth, but it isn't a requirement.
The tragic irony is that a generation of burned crypto participants are completely missing out on this equity run. Why? Because after getting rekt "investing" they’ve been conditioned to think hyper-active trading is the only way to make it.
They spend 3–4 years on the HTF sidelines. If they don't get completely wiped out, they eventually just give up. They think the market has to be difficult, exhausting, and soul-crushing 24/7 to yield results.
It doesn't. Sometimes, just staying on the right side of a simple macro trend is the most profitable play you can make.
I blame a big part of this trap on the trading education niche. Too many gurus add layers of fake complexity just to make themselves look more valuable.
The reality? A disciplined, long-term investor will easily outperform 90% of aspiring traders, all while spending a fraction of the time and effort.
I’ve shared countless examples and structural breakdowns of my HTF Core-Satellite strategy right here. If you actually want to learn it, the blueprint is free. Just go study my feed.
The Best Part of the Stock Market? If you understand the major indices, you understand individual stocks and sector rotations.
Traditional finance has a mini "altseason" practically every other week as capital rotates from Tech, to Energy, to Healthcare. Meanwhile, the average retail trader is still sidelined, praying that their favourite shitcoin finally makes sense again.
Stop fighting the ghost in the machine.
When in doubt: Choose a real market, and zoom out.
A new quarterly market report format is dropping soon.
For those who have been following along my setups/ideas and wondering how I assess the current market: My stance remains unchanged since pre-summer.
The broad structure remains bullish for stocks, so orderly accumulation continued. Q4 will, once again, most likely surprise many. ⌛️
Core-Satellite
The core-satellite strategy means building a core of major established assets, with smaller satellites around it to boost performance or hedge risk. I could talk about unrealistic returns and fuel the easy-money dream, but this is about the cold, hard truth.
Realistic Goals:
Without realistic goals, you’re like a ship without a destination.
Saying “I want to make X$ per day, Y$ per week, or Z$ per month” is not a real plan.
You need to think in percentages, not absolute dollar amounts.
If you want to make $10K/month with a $10K account, that’s a 100% monthly return. With proper risk management, that’s nearly impossible to sustain and chasing that kind of goal just means you’ll be running after the fantasy dragon forever.
But $10K/month with a $100K account is more realistic. That’s a 10% monthly return, still very ambitious (120% yearly) and something only the very best traders can achieve consistently.
Personally, I aim for those 10% per month on my trading accounts. I aim for the stars to land on the moon. The key: It doesn’t stress me or push me into bad trades, but fires the desire to outperform.
On average, I hit around 5% per month some months negative, others as high as 12%.
At 5% monthly, that would compound to about 60% annually if i can keep it up.
And if I don’t hit it? That’s fine too. My investment accounts (65% of my portfolio) are already outperforming the SPX and Gold since April and YTD.
What’s the point of putting in all the extra work if I couldn’t even outperform those?
Why Dreaming Doesn’t Work in the Market:
These aren’t dream-selling numbers. They’re realistic goals. And yet most traders won’t even get there, because they’re too busy chasing the dragon.
Look at the SPX:
- +12% YTD without any timing, not spectacular.
- Round +80% from the 2022 low
- From the low, though, it’s up ~35%, all with far less risk than altcoins or single stocks.
Just note that not every year looks like this. This move is very aggressive and won't last forever.
BTC:
- +21% YTD
- Round 600% form the 2022 low
- +50% from the April low.
50% in 5 months is insane. Show me a trader who consistently pull off 10% monthly with size and prove. Not many out there.
The Point:
If your goal is to have as much freedom as possible, build a big-picture strategy that takes advantage of the major swings while adding or removing risk with your trading.
For me, the best approach is a core-satellite strategy:
Core: Established assets like Gold, SPX, NDX, or BTC, the safe anchors that increase your buying power in the long run.
Satellites: A smaller portion of your portfolio for trading, stock picking, or hedging.
This way i maximise efficiency and limit risk. Most stock pickers, altcoiners, and traders don’t even outperform the majors, while taking far more risk and burning far more time. The market makers know the urge to always do something is strong, and they profit from it. Most think: More work equals a better outcome.
Betty Crocker sends her greetings.
The Traits You Need
The most important traits for this kind of strategy are patience, timing, and discipline.
Without patience, you won’t wait for the big moves, sometimes years.
Without timing, you won’t create meaningful returns.
Without discipline, you won’t buy when the chance comes, nor rebuild cash when it’s time to step aside.
You don’t need perfection. You need to build assets at major pivot lows and cash at major pivot highs. Repeat this process, and your returns will likely outshine those spending 10x of your effort.
Buy assets = Reduce cash
Sell assets = Increase cash
Always think in percentages, not absolutes.
At major pivot points, your goal is to shift exposure as much as possible, building cash into highs, building assets into lows.
And I’m talking about established assets, majors like SPX, Gold, BTC. Altcoins or single stocks behave differently. They chop in violent ranges for months, trapping capital without producing real returns, while investors keep praying for targets that might never come.
Nobody knows, so don’t get stuck in hoping for “one last leg” or BCS targets. For altcoins and single lower cap stocks you need real trading skills.
Build layered positions that get validated or invalidated along the way, all while already booking profits in the process.
The Bigger Picture
A good trader might achieve 10% monthly consistently (some maybe more, haven’t seen prove for that tho), but usually with enormous time effort. And if you trade with only your own money, that part of your portfolio is probably too small to outperform your investment accounts in absolute numbers. Propfirms can help here, but they have their own steppingstones.
The average altcoiner still hasn’t booked real profits, still waiting for BCS targets, riding every swing like a rollercoaster. That’s not bad luck, it’s by design. Majors made people richer. Most alts only made their holders poorer.
Meanwhile, the average DCA investor makes ~10% annually without timing. Not impressive, but it’s real money compared to most “dragon chasers.” Enough to keep up with inflation and still add a little extra. Now add just a little timing, and the results change completely.
Imagine you caught BTC in the recent drop in April almost perfectly with a $100K account and are up 50%. That’s $50K profit.
For a small account this might not feel like much, but statistically, it’s already outperformance over all other majors and most other players. And once you let compounding do its work, you can still make it, as long as you have enough patience.
Final Thought:
The ones who chase unrealistic, non-mathematical dreams usually pay the price in losses and in stress.
Trading is a powerful tool: It can boost performance, teach you about yourself, and speed up your understanding of the game a lot. Trading can also be a source of joy and if that’s the case, why not pursue it as often as you can?
Personally, I don’t enjoy sitting in front of the computer all day that’s why I focus on refining macro strategies like this one. One the provides me real freedom of time, instead of making me a slave to the tape.
"We must slow down anyone who isn't large enough to comply with widespread regulations", is what he is really saying.
Regulations in the tech sector often end up disproportionately burden smaller competitors who cannot afford compliance. Open-source developers and startups face severe headwinds in such cases.
While Anthropic might have one of the most powerful models, they are even more powerful in another key area:
Branding and marketing their business.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: https://t.co/OGyPb7yaYt
@jonaf_x Let's see if it plays, level and signs are there so trying it makes sense.
BTC
Long position closed, short position opened, aligned with the higher-timeframe thesis.
This chart has been public for months. I could publish weekly updates on every minor swing just to chase engagement, but why?
The signs were there, the plan was executed. HTF targets still ahead.
I think it makes sense to try a swing long here on $BTC after the recent shift in momentum.
Could be an ugly three-drives pattern stepping in to bring major demand. Not hoping for too much, though, local TPs as usual.
Scaling in here with half size, but I'd be a happy Max if I could get my average closer to 59k.
First target is 70k, and if that gets reclaimed, we can entertain 80k or even higher. It's not going to be a straight line.
@MysticT0mato Appreciate it.
It’s less about picking exact bottoms or tops and more about executing a predefined HTF framework when the signs occur.
@tviburinn Glad to be back soon. ✌️
@StefanSnipes Thanks mate.
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