Max

leveraged in volatile markets

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Next $BTC cycle top: $178,000-$180,000 around September 2029.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

If we want to be contrarian while still respecting a cyclical pattern that hasn’t failed yet: if everyone is expecting that sweep to mark the bottom, why couldn’t price sweep the $52–60k range, given the liquidations stacked there, attract a wave of leveraged longs expecting the reversal, and then flush even lower? That would be both contrarian to the consensus and consistent with the broader cyclical pattern (an October bottom).

It’s not necessarily what I think will happen. The point is that being contrarian, by itself, isn’t a trading thesis, especially with volume this thin and the risk of a stock-market flush while the downside correlation between equities and $BTC remains intact.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's and Axios's claims of a secret US-Iran meeting in Erbil and an IRGC-US backchannel through the Kurdistan region as "fabricated" and "a psychological and media warfare tactic intended to stir up disagreement among Iran's decision-making bodies," calling it "the result of the other party's desperation," per Iran's Foreign Ministry.

This directly rejects Trump's new claim an hour ago that "we have a backchannel with the IRGC" and "we are speaking directly with the IRGC officials in Iran," as well as the Axios claim that since mid-May 2026 there is a direct communication channel to IRGC Commander-in-Chief General Ahmad Vahidi through the Kurdistan region.

This comes as Iran continues to completely rule out any negotiations with the Trump administration until at least January 20, 2029, the end of Trump's term.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Misleading. Much of this is concentrated in AI hyperscalers, where accounting matters.

Microsoft extended server depreciation from 4 to 6 years, Meta from 5 to 5.5 years, Alphabet from 4 to 6 years, and Oracle from 5 to 6 years. Longer useful lives mean lower annual depreciation and higher near-term EPS; Meta alone estimated a ~2.9B USD reduction in 2025 depreciation.

Meanwhile, massive AI capex doesn’t immediately hit earnings. Servers and data centers are capitalized as PP&E: the cash leaves today through investing cash flow, while the expense reaches the income statement gradually through depreciation. Construction-in-progress isn’t depreciated until operational, and eligible interest can also be capitalized.

Add increasingly circular AI spending between hyperscalers, suppliers and customers, plus growing private credit and off-balance-sheet infrastructure commitments = headline EPS becomes an incomplete picture of the economics.

This is happening while hundreds of billions in AI investment have yet to produce proportional measurable productivity gains, cost savings or incremental revenue. So EPS can rise while cash spending explodes and returns on that capital remain uncertain.

Earnings growing faster than prices does not automatically mean stocks are becoming undervalued.

Bust before boom.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

@WatcherGuru ~10% of the global population is invested in stocks, so?

[Max @maxknowledge23]

The flaw here is still treating earnings estimates as the anchor for price. If companies consistently beat estimates and we’re still at historically extreme P/E multiples, those beats have already been rewarded with euphoric valuations.

At some point, the adjustment doesn’t have to come from lower earnings. Many big crashes that have happened came from lower multiples applied to those great earnings. Great earnings don't mean great returns when you’re already paying peak prices for them.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

$1K a day keeps the doctor away.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

October 9 - November 9
- P&L: +$93,183.91
- Max Drawdown: 5.88%

I rarely catch huge moves (3%+). Most of my edge comes from stacking frequent 0.5-2% gains with a 95%+ win rate.

The bulk of the gains came on Oct 9-10, catching one of the largest moves in a while. I barely traded for the next 10 days (travel + fewer clear setups), then wrapped up the month with the final third of gains, at a 100% win rate.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

There is a conclusion many of us avoided before asset management firms (e.g., BlackRock), sovereign wealth funds (e.g., Abu Dhabi, Luxembourg), and nation-states (e.g., El Salvador, *kind of* the U.S., etc.) started accumulating $BTC. We all suspected institutional involvement would transform $BTC into something resembling digital gold. The conclusion we avoided now seems confirmed across the past couple of bull markets: $BTC doesn't perform the same function as gold.

$BTC remains compelling as a long-duration asymmetric bet. The 4-year halving cycle keeps printing higher highs and higher lows, which offers a structured accumulation framework that rewards patience through brutal 50-70% drawdowns. For long-term holders, this thesis still works.

However, regarding the "digital gold" narrative... This is where we need intellectual honesty. Gold performs its safe-haven function precisely when we need it: rising during geopolitical shocks, monetary crises, and equity selloffs.

$BTC definitely fails this test. During recent market turmoil, Bitcoin has shown 0.6-0.8 correlation with $QQQ and risk assets broadly. When $SPX drops 3%, $BTC typically drops 5-8%. When $VIX spikes, $BTC bleeds with tech stocks, not alongside gold.

$BTC may be digital scarcity, but it's not digital gold; at least not yet. It mostly trades as a levered tech bet, not a safe haven. The 4-year cycle thesis can coexist with this reality, but pretending $BTC protects portfolios during risk-off events contradicts observable market behavior.

We should invest based on what assets do (on a large enough sample of events), not what we wish they were. For now, invest in the 4-year cycle; just don't count on $BTC to protect you in crises because, so far, it never has.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

At Bitcoin MENA, @cz_binance’s chat about the gold bar stunt with me omitted the fact that tokenized gold is just as easy to verify as Bitcoin. The critical difference is that with tokenized gold you verify ownership of something, but with Bitcoin you verify ownership of nothing.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

And then you have CT constantly posting "everybody predicted the top, so we're about to hit new ATHs" and/or "everyone is saying it's a bubble, so it's not a bubble."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Bullish investor sentiment is surging:

44.3% of individual investors expressed a bullish stock market outlook over the next 6 months in the latest AAII survey, the highest since October 8th.

The peak over the last 12 months was 45.9%.

Over the last 3 weeks, this percentage has risen by +12.7 points.

During the same period, the share of retail investors expressing bearish sentiment has declined -18.3 points, to 30.8%, the lowest since January 23rd.

As a result, the gap between bullish and bearish readings jumped to 13.5 points, the 2nd-highest this year.

Everyone wants a piece of this market.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Congrats on the gains!! I closed that new long after 1h btw when it was in good profits, as I was waiting for another proper fill of the CME gap, which means I missed on some additional gains today since it kept going up!
But it looks like my order for yet another long above the gap just filled now. I have more long orders at $88.9-89.3K; hopefully they get filled too. I'll do my best not to close those before Wednesday.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Closed. Amazing profits in 3h.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Closed and shorting $91K to fill the CME gap around $89.4K. Will long around there too to close before FOMC.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Closed and shorting $91K to fill the CME gap around $89.4K. Will long around there too to close before FOMC.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

$BTC is up $1.2K. I might let this long play out til EoD.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

This says: Long the dips, with a TP on January 1 of at least $93.5K.

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

Bitcoin performance

2025: 🔴 -3%
2024: 🟢 +120%
2023: 🟢 +106%
2022: 🔴 -64%
2021: 🟢 +83%
2020: 🟢 +305%
2019: 🟢 +95%
2018: 🔴 -74%
2017: 🟢 +1,375%
2016: 🟢 +120%
2015: 🟢 +36%
2014: 🔴 -58%
2013: 🟢 +5,428%
2012: 🟢 +218%
2011: 🟢 +1,317%

[Max @maxknowledge23]

@sized_in Selling the news before FOMC 🫡

[Max @maxknowledge23]

$BTC is up $1.2K. I might let this long play out til EoD.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Filled the wick. Just longed $BTC.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

The same entity has been appearing in the order books with more than 2,000 $BTC for the past couple of months. Before October 10, they typically deployed less than half of that amount to spoof the OB. Now, whenever they switch from showing 2,000+ $BTC on the buy side to 2,000+ $BTC on the sell side (and vice versa), other algorithms react almost instantly.

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

Mr 2000 suppressing Bitcoin - swinging 2000-2300 $BTC short and long for days.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

Filled the wick. Just longed $BTC.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

I just noticed the wick to $88.3K that happened on Coinbase in the past hour. $BTC might fill that wick in most exchanges before going up for a few days.
Also, the S&P just filled the last gap to the upside (6,890) today, there is nothing else above and no catalysts for risk assets after FOMC. Don't count on liquidity having any significant impact on these markets for a few months.

[Max @maxknowledge23]

I just noticed the wick to $88.3K that happened on Coinbase in the past hour. $BTC might fill that wick in most exchanges before going up for a few days.
Also, the S&P just filled the last gap to the upside (6,890) today, there is nothing else above and no catalysts for risk assets after FOMC. Don't count on liquidity having any significant impact on these markets for a few months.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Do we finally understand that the $MSTR preferred dividends reduce Bitcoin per share when funded with common stock sales and/or BTC sales or are we still living in a fantasy land?