Max Payn

Position Trader

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

📉 Crypto is officially over.

Entered Sept ’23 — BTC $25K, ETH $1.5K. Final batch out with the autumn leaves.

Time to pursue a conventional job, just as my family always said.

Bookmark this thread — maybe I’ll be back next cycle.

🫶

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

Saylor sailing or swimming?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: MicroStrategy stock, $MSTR, is now officially down -80% since its November 2024 peak.

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin position is now down -$6.5 BILLION.

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

@w3_hub @Qu1nn_web3 @VicktoriaKlich @BerBlockWeek @ber_chain 1st VLOG Bering printed.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the value of the country’s gold reserves has climbed to €496bn. Germany holds 3,352 tonnes of gold through the Bundesbank. More than 1,200 tonnes are stored in New York, with the rest held in Frankfurt and London.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

For anyone keeping track:

It took gold over 5,600 years to hit $1,000/oz for the first time, in 2008, amid the worst financial crisis in US history.

Meanwhile, gold prices just rose +$1,000/oz in 28 days.

But don't worry, fiat currencies are completely fine.

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

Gold & silver are behaving like meme coins — but with fundamentals.

Breakout momentum, heavy institutional + reserve flows driven by macro risk, real rates & geopolitics.

Industrial metals (copper/aluminum) ≠ same trade — tied to slow industrial cycles & mean reversion.

$GLD $SLV $BTC

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️Japanese government bonds are CRASHING:

Japan's 30-year government bond yield spiked 30 basis points in one session, to 3.90%, the highest in HISTORY.

40-year yield surged 28 basis points, to 4.22%, the highest EVER.

40-year yields have soared ~80 basis points since the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took over in October, 20.

10-year yield jumped 12 basis points, to 2.37%, the highest since the 1990s.

This comes as investors worry that the tax-cut promises ahead of the February elections mean the government will bring in less money, take on more debt, and put even more strain on Japan’s already extremely weak finances.

Meanwhile, demand collapsed at a 20-year government bond auction, sending buyers to the sidelines.

Thin demand opened the floodgates, pushing yields into levels Japan has never seen.

Japan has LOST the control of its bond market.

Gold and silver are skyrocketing as a response.

Something is going to really BREAK soon.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The bond market will be the ultimate signal:

Over the last 2 weeks, treasury yields have silently pushed higher.

Soon, with the US-EU trade war resurfacing, we will see the bond market's initial reaction to the headlines.

As seen in April 2025, a sustained push higher in treasury yields is something the Trump Administration does not want to see.

If yields continue rising on the back of trade tensions, the bond market could be the signal of a potential pullback on tariffs by Trump.

The bond market has a lot of the market's answers.

[Bitwise @Bitwise]

The tokenization market has 10x’d in the past two years.

One of the biggest players behind that has been Chainlink.

That’s it. That’s the tweet.

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

2026
Locked in

[beeple @beeple]

INFINITE BULL RUN

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

$BTC is $1,000 away from its yearly opening price.

[Dan Tapiero @DTAPCAP]

Silver going to 85.

Posted same chart a few months ago.

Probably puts gold at 5500, Btc at 180k, ndx at 40k, 2yrs 2%, eur/usd 1.35

Pick your numbers.

@_The_Prophet__ @KobeissiLetter
Talking about Bessent/Hassett juggernaut getting us there. 🚀 🚀

H/T Rich Ross ISI Evercore.

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

📖Value Investing Isn’t Dead — It’s Getting Rewritten

📕The iconic 1949 rulebook wasn’t built for:
•Markets that trade 24/7/365,
•Assets that monetise attention instead of earnings,
•Global liquidity cycles that compress into months instead of decades.

“A true value company proves itself across multiple cycles.”

Graham would not call most modern tech names “value,” but he would recognize their compounding power if he saw the cash flows, buybacks.

🤌
Crypto doesn’t replace value investing.
Crypto redefines what “value” means:

Velocity & Buybacks (“burns”) > Dividends

Network strength > Balance sheet

Reflexivity > Fundamentals

We’re not throwing Graham in the bin. 
His system is coherent — just not fully compatible with our era.

We’re just admitting he never met Solana, perps funding rates, or a memecoin that can go from zero to $1B market cap purely because TikTok decided it was time.

#crypto #value #bitcoin

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

A little Thanksgiving $BTC run on low volume after 2 months of downside momentum.
What does that tell you?

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

@PeterLBrandt @Costco If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

@RaoulGMI What’s wrong with Ninja?

[Max Payn @MaxMilko]

Hello Bear Market.
Say hi too, if you got liquidated today.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's safe to say that crypto just experienced its "2025 bear market."

Since October 6th, in 42 days, crypto has erased -$1.2 trillion in market cap, or -28% of its entire value.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

@benjamincowen Here's what Bitcoin did after historical Death Crosses