Max Wieland

Economist

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

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[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

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[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

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[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

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[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

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[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@VictimOfMaths In contrast, delta is 25% of cases in US. Assuming therefore for a minute 91% average efficacy of mRNA vaccines against mix of variants, and a coverage of 50%, plugging the numbers into the formula you’d expect ~9% of cases to be in fully vaxxed.

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@VictimOfMaths UK: delta is 95% of new cases, against which AZ is ~60% and PFE is ~80% effective.Assuming a 3:1 weighting you get average efficacy of 66%. Plugging those numbers into the formula and assuming a 55% coverage, you’d expect ~30% of cases to be in fully vaxxed.

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@chrischirp have really valued your coverage! Question: is UK delta spread a result of a more age-skewed coverage distribution than US? UK aggregate coverage higher than US for sure, but fully vaxxed coverage higher in US in all age cohorts <60 (CDC/ONS data), some substantially. Thanks!

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@chrischirp @chrischirp have really valued your coverage! Question: is UK delta spread a result of a more age-skewed coverage distribution than US? UK aggregate coverage higher than US for sure, but fully vaxxed coverage higher in US in all age cohorts <60 (CDC/ONS data), some substantially?

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

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[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@economistmeg 760+ score is not as concentrated as it may seem though. 46% of consumers have a score of 740+

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@ernietedeschi @ernietedeschi could you explain how you derived the $50b figure in more detail please?

[Max Wieland @MaxWieland6]

@Brad_Setser Hey @Brad_Setser how can I understand the persistent U.S. deficit in Q1 2020 despite the collapse in exporter surpluses? There seems to be a much better correlation during GFC. Thanks