Max Bolingbroke

ML engineer @AnthropicAI, quant trader, Cambridge PhD in Haskell compilers. Opinions my own
🇬🇧 ➡️ 🇭🇰 ➡️ 🇺🇸
👍 free markets 👍 techno-optimism 👎 p-hacking

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Just one more prime minister bro! I promise bro just one more PM and it'll fix everything. Please just one more bro and we'll raise growth above 0.5% per year this time! Please bro we just need one more PM, bro bro please

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

@jannalulu_ Alas, while pay toilets are common in Europe they are illegal in public buildings in CA and several other states https://t.co/zPDMUISl3Z

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Wake up babe, new short signal just dropped: https://t.co/oFsgUUFeDg

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

I never expected AI labs to have *negative* CAPM beta but here we are

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Big vibe change in the last 2 weeks. The whole US financial system is finally starting to believe in the exponential.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

One aspect of high US crime rates I hadn’t appreciated before living here: you are ~10x more likely to be called for jury duty than in the UK.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Enjoying reading through the first 1/22nd of the GPT1 embedding matrix. Page 57 is a banger

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

@ArtirKel Thanks - made a reservation :-)

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

OpenAI's newTranslate feature is not quite able to keep the model on task. The agent is leaking out.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Pouring one out for @webbhk, a tireless campaigner for classical liberal ideals and good government, and a legendary investor in his own right. Came to know of him through webb-site, a great data resource for HK quants.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

STOP DOING MAGIC LINKS
* EMAIL WAS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE AN AUTHENTICATION LAYER
* YEARS OF SMTP yet NO REAL-WORLD GUARANTEE your login link arrives before HEAT DEATH OF THE UNIVERSE
* Wanted passwordless auth anyway for a laugh? We had a tool for that: It was called "PASSKEYS"
* "Yes please make me open a SECOND APP to log into the FIRST APP. Please send my token to SPAM" - Statements dreamed up by the utterly Deranged

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Exciting milestone - my first Waymo ride on the freeway! A preview of our glorious future free of tragic traffic deaths :)

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Actually #3 rather than #2 if you look at excess returns. This is interesting disconnect between financial market outcomes and spending. Possibly partly a Jevons thing? (To the detriment of waistlines)

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

In US sector stock returns 1926-now, food is the 2nd best performing sector in IR terms (cigs are #1). Yet household spend on food has fallen from ~40% of income to 13% over the same period. So can we expect returns to knowledge-work stocks to be high, even as AI commoditizes it?

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

I thought that grokking in NNs only happens if regularization is in use (weight decay, dropout), as argued in e.g. Nanda 2023. Interesting then to find https://t.co/P0B3x5EVK9 which reproduces it with no WD or adaptive optimizer.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

I don't understand the investor enthusiasm for quantum computing stonks. Big technical risks, and even if you do succeed what are the commercial applications? Sure, you get to expropriate all the dark bitcoin once, but then what - you are banking on demand from quantum chemists??

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

@andy_l_jones It’s amazing. Showed up in my YouTube recs a few months back. An amazing combination of the road trip genre with nerd culture with the beauty of nature executed with genuine passion.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

I've started using Marimo and I've never felt better. I have more energy. My skin is clearer. My credit score went up 50 points. I can turn water into wine.

[Max Bolingbroke @mbolingbroke]

Jupyter notebook v7 so janky, does anyone actually prefer this over nbclassic??