Right now you’re largely experiencing the economy from a time when the Strait of Hormuz was open, because it takes many weeks for oil tankers to traverse the seas. You still experience the Strait as open, even though it’s been closed for weeks. But once that reality hits…
⚠️ Within 2–3 weeks of an energy crisis, the government can trigger a full emergency.
▪️ Movement restricted, travel only for essentials, work-from-home mandated
▪️ Businesses limited or closed, only essential services kept running (and we can’t afford furlough)
▪️ Food and energy rationed, priority to hospitals, emergency services, and critical infrastructure
▪️ Police and authorities enforcing rules, curfews or restricted zones possible
▪️ Schools could be partially or fully closed if transport, heating, or staff availability is disrupted
▪️ Holidays and leisure travel likely cancelled or heavily restricted
▪️ Some elections and public events postponed (handy for May)
▪️ Government will step in to control official channels to guide behaviour and social media will be monitored to prevent panic or ‘misinformation’ or ‘Malinformation’ (correct information but they deem it harmful)
Remember Covid? This isn’t a conspiracy theory, it’s exactly how the UK is legally prepared to respond.
If energy and fuel collapse, plans are in place for all of the above. Just saying l.
GOLDMAN: MARKETS MISREAD FED AS OIL SPIKE FUELS RATE FEARS
Goldman Sachs says investors are overestimating the chance of Fed rate hikes as oil prices surge.
Brent crude above $115 has fueled inflation fears and pushed traders to price a more hawkish Fed, but Goldman argues this reaction is overdone and out of line with history.
The bank points to 1990, when markets expected tightening after an oil shock — but the Fed ultimately cut rates as growth weakened.
Bottom line: markets are pricing higher rates, but slowing growth could force the Fed in the opposite direction.
With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, this feels like those weird couple of weeks before the global Covid lockdown. A surreal complacency, with a few people warning of what’s coming. If oil and fertilizer don’t start flowing to Asia soon, this will be a major catastrophe.
Clever attempt to maintain the astronomically high property values of his voters, whilst being seen to reduce the barrier for entry for young voters. Long term the value of the real home price will lower to meet natural demand crushing those with little equity and lots of debt
Trump on his 50-year mortgage plan: "It's not even a big deal! You go from 40 to 50 years. And what it means is you pay something less. From 30, some people had a 40, and now they have a 50...You pay it over a long period of time. It's not like a big factor!"
“So you get this round and your buddy gets the next round?”
“Yes, Dave”
“And you do this back and forth all night… to save money…”
“That’s correct, Dave”
Premier League Young Player of The Season 2024/25
🥇 Morgan Rogers | Aston Villa
His physicality has created a rare type of attacker — a brilliant ball-carrier who is hardly ever outmuscled. Combine all of this with a developed end-product and you get a 22-year-old who is a critical cog in manager Unai Emery’s Aston Villa system.
#AVFC | #PL | #TAFCAwards25