Maciej D

xyz

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@weary_centurion And -7%

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@ValueNotDeadYet Just for now it’s the very same pattern every day - from +4% to +0,5% at the end of the session

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@RhomeCapital @OddityOddballs -15% premarket

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@weary_centurion What do you think about it? I’m also worried about the fact the buyback slowed down
https://t.co/8oe9hSQxh6

[Oddity Oddballs @OddityOddballs]

Some thoughts on the $ODD buybacks.

Between the start of March till the end of March, $ODD spent around $80 million to buy back 6 million shares for $13.50 per share.

Between the start of April till mid-June, they spent another $80 million to buy back around five million shares, for $15 per share.

So the pace of share buybacks was at least 2x higher in March as it was in the subsequent months. (A slight caveat here is that they spent $35 million buying back convertibles.)

So why is the pace of buybacks slowing down so much?

The first reason is that it could be a blackout / insider trading thing. From what I understand (I’m no expert), $ODD would be able to have an automated share buyback program throughout the quarter based on certain pre-defined rules.

I thought that’s also why they announced the buyback program in mid-March (blackout is often two weeks before the end of the quarter), rather than wait for the previous buyback to be fully utilized. If that’s not the case, then I wonder why they had to announce it before the current one ran out.

Based on the average buyback price, the buybacks also must have been mostly in April, given that was the only period when the price was high enough to get to the average buyback price. So the blackout period doesn’t seem to have been a problem. (If anything, it looks like they might have turned the program off since May.)

Another explanation could be that buybacks beyond the $113 million (out of the $200m buyback program, of which $33m was in the last two weeks of March and $80m was in Q2) may not have met the ‘solvency test’ because of certain liquidity / cashflow criteria.

The $ODD board today announced that’s not an issue though. I don’t see why they couldn’t have convened the board to get that resolved a month ago when it became a restriction on the buybacks. But maybe the board only convenes at set intervals. Or it might have to do with getting clarity on the direction of the business first. If it’s the latter, then today’s announcement would be a very positive sign.

Another more cynical explanation is that the buybacks in March and the announcement mid-March (as well as Oran’s personal purchase) were a bit of bluster meant to shore up the share price and keep morale high. When employees see the value of their shares getting wiped out, then they may start looking for other work, or become less motivated. This is a real negative feedback loop that a business would want to break.

I’m not sure which theory best explains the facts. Another $80m share buyback and $35m in convertibles since the start of April sure isn’t nothing. But it seems like management has gotten less confident since March/April. They don’t even seem to have bought back much in May or even June when prices were below $10 dollars (although they did do the convertible buyback in June).

They’ve also not announced a new share buyback program in June, like they did in March around the middle of the month. So they don’t seem to have the confidence to extend it beyond the remaining $87 million, even they’ve got the cash to do it. I’m not sure they could extend it during a blackout period and needed to do it before the middle of the month, like they did in March.

We’ve also not seen Oran make another purchase this quarter.

Keen to hear your thoughts and any corrections.

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@Lukasz_on_GPW Dziś Cognor zaboli niestety

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

#Cognor
Ktoś wie co tam się wydarzyło na Cognor, że zaliczyliśmy taki zjazd w 10 minut na dużym wolumenie? Jakieś powszechnie dostępne info czy dopiero się dowiemy? :)

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@ValueNotDeadYet @weary_centurion @mason__capital I get your point but still don’t agree. If they solve the problem even 25 is not enough. What would the P/E be then taking the number of shares into consideration? 5-6?

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@ValueNotDeadYet @weary_centurion @mason__capital $20-25 once they solve the issue? I think it’s not enough

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@mason__capital Btw, the last 5 minutes of today’s session were quite strange. Relatively big volume and massive drop

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@mason__capital Painful but still patient. I started building my position once the stock was around 33$. My avg is 19.50 now so I hope we will get there till the end of the year. I’m sure that’s gonna happen if CAC normalizes and I hope it will

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@CalumLewis @mason__capital I hope they will announce sth positive about CAC during Q2 call. I don’t expect full normalization but at least clear track to achieve it quickly

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@CalumLewis I hope the day will come when management will say “everything’s ok, we are back on track to growth”. Will the stock go up +100% in one day? 😅

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@CalumLewis I don’t expect the stock will recover before Q2 report as well. I just hope the situation to normalize this year so the company could go back on track to growth

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@GillesVera27953 @weary_centurion However, CEO bought a lot of shares so maybe he still believes

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@GillesVera27953 @weary_centurion I have a very similar point of view but I think I’ll still wait till Q2 report. I lost a lot of money in this stock and it’s my biggest loss ever but I can wait 2-3 months more even if it can cost me additional -20%.

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@_C0NFLUENCE @OddityOddballs Do you observe them too? Has something changed in q2 vs q1?

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@_C0NFLUENCE @OddityOddballs Where do you observe the ads and credit card data?

[Maciej D @mcdudek13]

@weary_centurion @Mufasa_Capital It’s very strange they didn’t clarify that. It’s the most important thing for now