Michael Davies

econ phd @ uc berkeley

[Martin Beraja @MartinBeraja]

Session 2 on the automation of production, with "The Race between Man and Machine" by @DAcemogluMIT and @pascualrpo, and "Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market" by @menaka_hampole, @DimitrisPapan20, @L_Schmidt_Econ, and Bryan Seegmiller.

One theme: a model written with robots in mind has become the workhorse for thinking about AI. The same substitution force, now impacting cognitive tasks and high-paid workers.

But AI is more than a fancy robot... the sessions ahead are about knowledge, learning inside organizations, and the ownership of data.

Excellent presentation by Michael Davies [@mchldvs] and Adele Ponzo [@AdelePonzo], and the Claude session summary, here: [https://t.co/ZJCajF5gfX]

[Jonatan Pallesen @jonatanpallesen]

Incredibly, the placebo effect is (mostly) not real.

It is a result of statistical confusion. Whenever you have a group with extreme values, they tend to exhibit regression to the mean. Eg. on average, sick people tend to become more healthy over time.

Thus if you give one group medicine, and one group placebo, the placebo group will also tend to get better over time, because of regression to the mean.

People have then misinterpreted this to think that it is the placebo pill that actively does this.

If you want to demonstrate a placebo effect, you have to construct a study where there are three groups:
• A. treatment
• B. placebo
• C. no treatment, no placebo

If B and C get different outcomes, that would demonstrate a placebo effect.

When this has been tried, mainly there has been no provable placebo effect. See the paper in the screenshot. (There is some evidence for an effect for pain, but this get's into a slightly different debate.)

The fact that the placebo effect is mainly not real, fortunately frees us from having to come up with convoluted explanations, as to why the placebo effect would work even when we tell the patient that it is a placebo, as in the quoted tweet.

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@jackphayes @apuddleofmuddle @lucyfmccann @t_gaisford @thomasgday @LucyHHalton @finnian_clarke love
you 😭 congrats babes

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

Turns out you can trigger ChatGPT's security filter by asking for increasingly novel ice cream flavour combinations

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

😭

[The Scarlet B!tch ᱬ @thechildoftime]

A point should also be made how there was a plot point where one of the factory workers tried to stop Hayley from using the woman’s bathroom and the rest of the staff - all women - tell her to stop being a dick and making Hayley and everyone else uncomfortable.

[Joshi Herrmann @joshi]

I wrote about how Manchester is changing and I did so from Pollen, the “sourdough and Viennoiserie bakery” that defines the new city.

The story of New Islington and the 'real Ancoats' people who feel angry and left behind. For @ManchesterMill.

https://t.co/CcHURCFJdK

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@jackphayes @Charlie92837 omgggggggggg naur

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@jackphayes @Charlie92837 this looks so nice 😭

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@jackphayes wow

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@aesthetics_grad gods plan

[Torsten Bell @TorstenBell]

The running down of public capital stock in the 1990s shocks me every time I see it

[Rachel Connolly @RachelConnoll14]

I loved this! Everyone should read it
https://t.co/Gn6K6kTmd3

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@FaizaShaheen15 YES!!!!

[Alfie Stirling @alfie_stirling]

Spot the differences.

'Wage-price spiral' Supply disruption.
👇 👇

[Carsten Jung @carsjung]

NEW REPORT: Inflation is mainly driven by global factors. But many corporations have increased their profit rates while people's wages are not keeping up. @chrishayes and I find that UK aggregate profits were up 34% at the end of 2021. Covered in @thetimes this morning. (1/6)

[Michael Davies @mchldvs]

@aesthetics_grad @ctb2d2b @mxtxpapi

[Róisín McDermott @RoisinMcDermott]

At his restaurant Jamie Oliver

💳had levy on credit card tips so staff didn’t get all tips they earned
❌breached Trade Union Act not consulting staff before redundancy
🤑paid himself £5.2 million months before closure but didn’t pay staff compensation so burden fell on taxpayer