JD

I like an old fashioned

[JD @mcshippens]

@FedUpDanny @XfinitySupport Will try out ATT and T-Mobile. They both allow 15 day-risk free trial at no cost and both offer the same data plans priced at half of what I pay now. Would be more than happy to keep paying same rate with better customer service.

[JD @mcshippens]

When your friends bring you things!

[JD @mcshippens]

@TripleDTrader This happens to me once or twice a year. Take the coldest shower you can for 60 seconds.

Holding my breath, swallowing sugar, getting scared, nothing ever worked except 60 seconds in the coldest shower possible.

[JD @mcshippens]

@alecTrading This is exciting! Signed into the app last night! Really like the capped and uncapped modes concept.

[JD @mcshippens]

@HiKGSummer @thesamparr @ShaanVP This is amazing. I will absolutely be purchasing this service. This will be great for the in-laws!

[JD @mcshippens]

@TripleDTrader what's your thoughts on UNH here? almost 50% drop in 30 days.

[Dividendology @dividendology]

UnitedHealth Group $UNH is in free fall.

In the last month, the stock has dropped 45%.

That’s a brutal stretch for what many consider one of the most reliable compounders in the healthcare space.

So what happened? And more importantly, what should investors do now?

Let’s unpack it all.

🧨 What Triggered the Sell-Off?

The latest catalyst was a double whammy:

CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down (citing personal reasons)

The company suspended its 2025 financial guidance, citing rising medical care activity and cost pressures in its Medicare Advantage program.

These updates came on top of a difficult few months for $UNH:

- Cyberattack in 2024 disrupted claims processing and electronic payments, causing a one-time hit to earnings.

- Recent earnings miss on both revenue and profit.

- Increased regulatory scrutiny and criticism following the former CEO's tenure.

For many investors, this was the breaking point. Panic took over. The stock tumbled.

✅ I Own UNH (And I Just Bought More)

Let me be upfront: I already own $UNH in my portfolio.

And I'm not alone.

UNH is the 8th most-owned stock by superinvestors (portfolio managers with $100M+ in assets).

It’s a core holding for many funds due to its reliable cash flow, scale advantages, and steady earnings growth.

💰 Dividend Growth Machine

UnitedHealth has quietly been one of the best dividend growers of the past decade:

2014 dividend: $1.41

2024 dividend: $8.18

That’s a 16% CAGR over 10 years, and nearly 12% over the past 5 years

With the recent sell-off, the dividend yield has jumped above 2.2%. This is the highest starting yield in company history.

🧾 What About Earnings?

2024 earnings fell off a cliff. But context matters.

The EPS decline was due to a one-time cybersecurity incident that disrupted their core operations.

Revenue growth remained intact.

FCF/share and EPS had been compounding steadily for years before this.

So far, nothing suggests this is a long-term impairment.

🔍 Valuation Looks Attractive (Even with Conservative Assumptions)

I ran a series of valuation models, all using conservative inputs.

Let’s walk through them:

1. Reverse DCF Analysis

Current share price: $323.44

If we assume 2025 FCF is the same as 2024 (which was already lower than normal due the cyber security attack)

We can see after that, the market is only pricing in 3.6% annual FCF growth over the next decade.

Only 3.6% FCF growth is extremely conservative. UNH historically grows at a double digit rate. This model suggests a clear undervaluation.

2. EPS Sensitivity & Total Return Model

Using conservative estimates:

2025 EPS = $24.12 (in line with 2023)

Long-term EPS growth = 8% (far below analysts projections and management guidance)

PE ratio expansion from current 15.7x to just 17.5x (below historical average of 22.8x)

Result:

Total return by 2030 = +91.98%

Annualized return = ~11.5%

That’s without assuming any return to high growth. Just modest recovery and stabilization. Again, these projections are on the conservative side.

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions:

2025 FCF stays flat due to headwinds

Long-term growth = 8% (again, below guidance)

Discount rate = 8.5%

Fair Value: $525/share

That’s over 60% upside from current prices.

🧠 Sentiment vs Fundamentals

The biggest trap retail investors fall into is confusing sentiment with fundamentals.

Right now, sentiment is in the gutter.

But over a 5+ year timeline, what actually matters?

Can the business continue generating strong free cash flow?

Are the long-term structural trends in healthcare still intact?

Is this a temporary disruption or a permanent impairment?

Based on every model and datapoint I’ve reviewed — nothing suggests this is a permanently broken business.

Here’s what I know:

- UnitedHealth is down ~45% in a month

- The problems are real (but likely temporary)

- Valuation is compelling even with very conservative growth assumptions

- Long-term return projections look attractive

- The market is pricing in fear, not fundamentals

I may be early. The stock could fall further in the short term.

But I’m not trying to time the bottom. I’m trying to buy quality businesses when they’re hated and undervalued.

This feels like one of those time.

I'm buying shares today.

[JD @mcshippens]

@cfromhertz is a great follow. Keep his ticker posts in your watchlist indeed.

$HIMS $SPY $VIX

[JD @mcshippens]

@cfromhertz This was such a great eye - spotted the best entry time too. Up 55% since this post.

[JD @mcshippens]

@unusual_whales anything unusual happening with GME?

[Justin Welsh @thejustinwelsh]

The irony of corporate success:

You climb the ladder only to realize the most valuable stuff was never at the top.

[JD @mcshippens]

A little more she said!!!!

$SPY $QQQ $SQQQ $VIX

[JD @mcshippens]

Is everyone afraid enough?? I think there is still more to fear.

$SPY $QQQ $SQQQ $VIX

[JD @mcshippens]

Is everyone afraid enough?? I think there is still more to fear.

$SPY $QQQ $SQQQ $VIX

[JD @mcshippens]

@cfromhertz @cfromhertz seems like names like MCD, etc showing some strength against the rest of the market weakness

[JD @mcshippens]

If you've been inverse trading the folks on "All-In" you've been green the past 6 months and it hasn't changed yet!

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

Chamath's Three Takeaways from Liberation Day 🇺🇸

1) Trump will go through with the tariffs, don't expect a grand capitulation

-- "Trump has had a 40-year view on tariffs."

-- "They're going to go through with this and they're going to see it through."

-- "I don't think you're going to see this grand capitulation."

2) The White House is okay with short-term volatility in the stock market

-- Remember Bessent's quotes on "Main Street over Wall Street" and re-ordering the international trading system

3) Bond yields are down, which will save us hundreds of billions this year

-- "We have $6T we need to finance in the next nine months."

-- "So the singular goal, in my opinion, of the White House, has been move the 10 year as aggressively and as quickly as possible."

-- As of yesterday... you were kissing 4%."

-- "If it had gone in the other direction, 30 or 40 basis points, and it touched 5%, you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of extra money that would not have been found, that would've had to be printed."

-- "Irrespective of what you think you know, or what you think you like about tariffs, we should all have a moment where we exhale because the long end of the curve is giving us a respite in a storm."

[Gary Vaynerchuk @garyvee]

Save this as your wallpaper on your phone and watch how much your life gets better! Whos in?

[JD @mcshippens]

@alecTrading GP all day!

[JD @mcshippens]

@carlos__tapanes @Xfinity I wonder how large this outage is, we are down here in Nashville, TN as well

[JD @mcshippens]

#ftx repayments just hit.

$btc #crypto #sbf #fucksbf

[JD @mcshippens]

Time to start nibling?

$SPY $BTC $DXY $VIX