Morgane Ducournau

Comments are my own

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

Funds were net sellers of CBOT #corn & #soybeans in the week ended Feb. 11, but in different ways.
A reduction in gross longs almost fully drove the corn selling, though the bean selling featured both exiting longs and new gross shorts - a little heavier on the latter.

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🇦🇷Crop conditions in Argentina fell again this week despite recent rains. Only 15% of #soybeans and 16% of #corn are in good condition, down from 17% and 25% last week. At least a third of both crops are in poor shape.

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

#FranceAgriMer a annoncé des conditions de cultures de #blé de bonnes à excellentes de 73%. Mieux que l'an dernier 68%.
Notons toutefois qu'avant la dormance des cultures, les conditions de cultures étaient estimées à 86% !
Les précipitations ont durement affecté les cultures.

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

@arn_adn La position nette vendeuse des fonds financiers*
Pour le ble les fonds financiers sont globalement vendeurs. Lorsque la position est importante a l achat ou la vente cela peut être mis en corrélation avec un futur potentiel mouvement de marche. Pour le ble des rachats de poses.

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

#Euronext #moneymanager
La position nette vendeuse sur le #blé est la plus importante à date tandis que la position nette #colza poursuit son ascension avec une position longue historique !

#Wheat vs #rapeseed : Choose yours

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🌽As of Nov. 12, money managers held their most bullish CBOT #corn views since February 2023 with a net long around 110,000 futures & options contracts.

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🇺🇸U.S. winter #wheat conditions jump 5 pct points on the week to 49% good/excellent. Trade expected +2. Double-digit improvements across top states versus late October owing to abundant rains in previously parched areas, including the southern Plains.

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Oct. 2024 (data was released Friday):
▪️All-time record of 199.959 mln bu of #soybeans
▪️Up 5.4% from Oct 2023
▪️Above avg trade guess of 196.843 mln bu
▪️#Soyoil stocks 1.069 bln lbs
▪️Below avg trade guess of 1.09 bln
▪️Soyoil stocks close to 10-year lows

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

Accord #Mercosur - UE : poursuite de la fin de l’autonomie agricole française. 🇫🇷🌽🌾🥩
Soutien aux agriculteurs.

#agriculture

[Peak Trading Research @PeakTrading]

🌾 #Hedgefund positioning in #agriculture futures feels 'topped out' 📊 - speculators aren't willing to build a net long position across the agriculture complex until they see some new bullish catalysts, e.g., a Brazil #weather problem or structurally weaker #dollar. 💵 📉

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

Open interest on #Rapeseed Feb25...

[Mads Kristensen @MadsKri]

Record high Open Interest on the Feb25 #rapeseed contract. At the same time Investment Funds gross long positions are going through the roof, and holding only 7k gross short. Lots of contracts must be spread or liquidated with the next month.

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

@MadsKri The turnaround should be going to be violent.

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

Sur #Euronext les fonds poursuivent les ventes de #blé tandis qu'ils achètent toujours le #colza. Retour respectif vers les 210 et les 450 ? A suivre...

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

Saisonnalité Spread #Rapeseed Mai-Août
Record à date : 39.50.
Spread inter campagne à suivre avec attention !

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

550*

[Morgane Ducournau @MD_fr_grains]

#ROTTERDAM on fire 🔥
Les prix des #huiles à Rotterdam continuent de payer
#palmoil #soyoil #rapeseed #oil #sunflower

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Wow, electricity prices are crazy high in the UK and Europe!