Medlock & Thames

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[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Eurozone #EconomicSentiment rose for a fourth straight month to 98.4 in Aug, its best reading since Jan and above forecasts.

Confidence improved across every sector as hopes grow for a US-Iran war resolution.

Sentiment rose in France, Germany, Italy — but fell in Spain 📈🇪🇺

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

US inflation held at 3.7% in July. Forecast was 3.6%.

GBP/USD near 1.3620, the #Fed split, and Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Paying in dollars? A #ForwardContract fixes today's rate 📈 💷

https://t.co/bQC7R8H5Zn

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

US #NewHomeSales sank 10.5% in July to 607,000, the sharpest drop and lowest level since January, missing forecasts of 620,000.

Sales plunged 43% in the Midwest and 13% in the South, while the Northeast and West rose.

Median price hit $393,800, a 1-year low 🏠📉

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

The #DollarIndex held near 98.8 Monday, still pressured after last week's slide as rising yields stoked debt worries.

Bessent unveiled a debt-buyback "Treasury twist" to manage the yield curve, while markets await new US sanctions on Iran.

Traders eye #PCE and Jackson Hole 💵📉

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

German #ZEW expectations 34.2 in August vs 30.0 expected. Fourth straight rise.

Conditions still minus 61.1. Confidence is ahead of the economy.

#GBPEUR down to 1.1690 with the #ECB due 10 Sept. 🇩🇪💷

https://t.co/TKHw7akTPy

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

The British #Pound climbed to around $1.355, its highest in over three months, as traders brace for a big week of UK data.

Labour market figures land Tuesday, inflation Wednesday — markets fully price a 25bp #BoE hike in December.

Bailey says disinflation stays on track 💷🇬🇧

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

UK #GDP grew 0.4% in Q2. The eurozone grew 0.4%. Dead heat.

Services up 0.5%, production flat, business investment up 1.7%. June rebounded 0.3%.

#GBPEUR unmoved near 1.1710 with the #BoE due 17 Sept. 📊💷

https://t.co/BjigfgVHzr

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

US #CPI cooled for a second straight month to 3.4% in July, in line with forecasts and further below May's 4.2% high.

Gasoline inflation eased to 24.6% y/y as the Iran war energy shock fades, while shelter inflation slowed to 3.2%.

Core #Inflation eased to 2.5% 📉💵

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

US #SmallBusiness optimism jumped to 99.8 in July, its highest since Aug 2025, well above forecasts of 97.5.

Hiring plans hit their best level since Oct 2022, though labor quality remained the top concern. Price hike plans cooled notably.

Uncertainty still rose 2 points 📈🏪

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

#OilPrices climbed to around $80/barrel Monday, extending gains as Strait of #Hormuz uncertainty persists.

Iran and Oman haven't finalized a deal to reopen it, with Tehran saying no US talks are underway and Washington now "low-keying it."

A tanker was attacked in Hormuz 🛢️🚢

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

US payrolls FELL 23,000 in July. Forecast was +80,000. Another 103,000 revised away from May and June.

Jobless rate dropped to 4.1%, but only because people stopped looking.

#GBPUSD up to ~1.3505 as #Fed hike bets unwind. 📉💷

https://t.co/8Kd3JQHnQE

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Germany's #FactoryOrders jumped 3.1% m/m in June, smashing forecasts of 0.3% — the strongest gain since March.

Electronics and opticals surged 22.7%, mech engineering rose 12.7%, and autos gained 3.8%, while aircraft/ship orders plunged 41.7%.

Domestic demand rose 7.8% 📈🏭

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Euro Area #PPI fell 0.3% m/m in June, the first drop in four months, as energy costs sank 1.5% after the US-Iran ceasefire eased oil.

Prices fell in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, while goods inflation slowed too.

Annual PPI eased to 4.6% from 5.9% 📉🛢

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Germany's #RetailSales fell 1.1% m/m in June, far worse than forecasts of a 0.5% drop and the sharpest decline since May 2025.

Food sales dropped 1.4%, non-food fell 1.0%, though online sales rose 0.4%.

Annually, sales slipped 0.2% — a sign of weak #ConsumerSpending 📉🛒

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Eurozone #Inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July-up from 2.8% and well above the ECB's 2.0% target.

Energy prices surged 10.0% as US-Iran hostilities resumed, while services and core inflation edged higher too.

Germany, France, Spain, and Netherlands saw faster price growth 📈💶

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, four times forecast and a one year high. Germany lagged at 0.2%; Spain led.

Euro firmer: #GBPEUR off its 2026 high ~1.1750 before the #BoE today. 📈💷

https://t.co/fHMSjhleFU

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Germany's #ImportPrices rose 6.1% y/y in June, easing from May's 6.8% but just above forecasts of 6.0%.

Energy stayed the main driver (23.9%), led by a 70.8% jump in electricity, while intermediate goods costs accelerated on pricier metals.

Monthly prices slipped 0.7% 📦🇩🇪

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Spain's #Unemployment rate fell to 9.87% in Q2, its lowest since 2008, beating forecasts of 10.7% and down from 10.83%.

Jobless numbers dropped 213,300 to 2.495M, falling across every sector, while #Employment rose 486,000 to 22.779M 🇪🇸📉

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

Germany's #Ifo index rose to 86.6 in July, a third straight gain, just above forecasts of 86.

Expectations jumped to 86.7 from 84.3, though current conditions dipped to 86.5 — recovery stays uneven.

Manufacturing, services, and trade all improved as the #Economy stabilizes 📈🏭

[Medlock & Thames @medlockthames]

UK #RetailSales jumped 1.0% m/m in June, defying forecasts of a 0.3% fall, as hot weather and the World Cup lifted demand for clothing, sports gear, and A/C units.

Clothing sales rose 1.9%, the biggest gain since Sept 2025; online sales climbed 2.8%.

Annual growth hit 4.2% 🛒🏆