Record quarter with 73% concentration is the kind of headline that looks amazing on a slide and terrifying on a cap table. Strip out openAI/Anthropic/xAI/Waymo/Databricks and the rest of the market is basically flat-to-down. For allocators, the interesting question it's whether anything outside the Mag-5 private complex is actually investable at today's marks.
MENA VC isn't broken — it's recalibrating.
Capital hasn't left. It's paused, gotten selective, and shifted toward infrastructure, regulated assets, and founders who can show unit economics.
The best time to deploy is when everyone else is waiting.🧐
MENA VC Q1 2026: the numbers are in.
$941M raised across 121 deals.
-21.5% QoQ. -37% YoY.
March alone: <$50M across just 17 startups — one of the weakest months in years.
Here's what's really happening (and where capital goes next). 🧵
My outlook — where deals will flow:
→ Saudi fintech infrastructure (open banking, lending rails, Shariah-compliant credit).
→ AI + cybersecurity. ~22% of Saudi VC deals in 2024 went to AI. That share is growing. National security narrative accelerates it.
→ Debt + structured capital. Equity-only rounds are shrinking. Expect more securitization and blended equity+debt structures.
@RealVision@RaoulGMI@goldmembrrr Also curious how you're underwriting AI's capex cycle here — feels like we're drifting from software margins into infrastructure economics