Megazire

Risk it or leave it
Polyintel:

[Megazire @megazire]

How I built Polyintel

1/ Polymarket is one of the most interesting markets on the internet. You can bet on literally anything happening in the world.

But here's the problem: by the time information reaches Twitter, the price has already moved.

So I built a tool to see the move BEFORE the news. 👇

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Thanks to Polyintel we follow his bets , he is very confident about Norway losing

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel scanned this one aswell, huge position, but very safe

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Thanks to Polyintel saw this bet aswell, not sure it's a smart choice

[Megazire @megazire]

Another whale caught by Polyintel... but this one got absolutely destroyed.

We spotted the bet early, but this wallet is now down over $10.7M. 💀

Not every whale is worth following.

Sometimes the best strategy is doing the exact opposite. Reverse-betting this wallet would've been far more profitable. 👀

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel spotted he's other bets that he won.

He's knowledge makes him profitable

[Megazire @megazire]

Under 3.5 Goals was one of the biggest edges of the 2026 World Cup knockout stage

Most prediction markets and sportsbooks price goal totals using mathematical models based on historical scoring, team strength, xG, and probabilities. Statistically, that's the correct approach.

The problem is that football isn't played by equations—it's played by people.

Knockout matches introduce a factor that is extremely difficult to quantify: human psychology. The fear of elimination changes everything. Players become more cautious, managers prioritize avoiding mistakes over taking risks, and a single goal can completely change the game's dynamics. Those behavioral changes aren't fully reflected in purely statistical models.

That was my thesis from the beginning: the market priced the math, but it underestimated the mentality.

The result?

15 of the first 17 World Cup knockout matches finished Under 3.5 Goals, with average odds of approximately 1.55.

Sometimes the biggest inefficiency isn't in the statistics—it's in the psychology behind them.

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport https://t.co/ZcsDlNVpbR

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel spotted his bets , looks safe

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel scanned his bet, looks not safe ...

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel spotted this one aswell.

Not much time left, wish him luck !

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Another whale spotted by Polyintel.

Polyintel caught the bet early, and this wallet looks more like an algo trader than a random whale.

Hmmm..

Definitely one to keep an eye on.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

We'll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon.

We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on redeploying the models.

[Megazire @megazire]

@zerohedge Very nice

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel spotted this wallet early as well.

This looks like another possible insider wallet.

Inner Circle will be watching this one closely to see how it plays out.

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketMoney Wow

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel spotted him aswell, very safe bet tbh

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketStory Insane , Polyintel scanned bets by that were placed by him earlier,

His Croatia bet was banger , let's see if this one hits aswell

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketStory Polyintel flagged him , insane 580k one time bet

Let's see if he wins

[Megazire @megazire]

@PolymarketSport Polyintel spotted his insane activity

Maybe insider though

[Megazire @megazire]

Insider got banned ...

[Megazire @megazire]

Another INSIDER wallet catch by the Polyintel community.

One of our Inner Circle members spotted this wallet before the market moved.

The match was tied 1-1 until the 78th minute... then Ecuador scored, sending the wallet into massive profit.

This is exactly why tracking smart money early matters.