melanie ✨

18 🕯
looking for a content partner this week 🌶
I only respond here 👇🏼

[nOnEpcbl. @nonepcbl]

everyone keeps saying prediction markets reveal the truth

they don't

they reveal a price

those are not the same thing

a 1% contract sounds like a 1% chance

historical data says those contracts actually resolved closer to 0.43%

that's not noise

it's a measurable pricing bias

the interesting part isn't that prediction markets are wrong

it's that they're wrong in ways you can model

the future won't belong to the people reading market odds

it'll belong to the people calibrating them

because once everyone has access to the same price

the edge moves to knowing what that price actually means

[FOX Baltimore @FOXBaltimore]

An MTA bus crashed into a FedEx supply store along Reisterstown Road, leaving at least 33 people injured. Maryland environmental officials are investigating dead fish in the harbor, likely linked to low oxygen levels caused by a localized "Pistachio Tide". And a tropical bird rarely seen in Maryland was spotted on a local boat 🐦

[7News DC First Alert Weather @7NewsDCWeather]

Severe T-Storm Warning for Montgomery until Jul 09 3:15PM. Damaging wind gusts and/or large hail are possible.

[The DC MD VA Live @TheDMVLive]

Restoration work is underway at the Meridian Hill Park fountains in Washington DC as sediment at the bottom has caused the water to turn brown.

Work is expected to last no more than a week. If all goes to plan, the water should return to its bright blue color by next Wednesday.

[melanie ✨ @melajffp]

FIGHTINGfw