Paul Mindus

American journalist and financial researcher living in Carlsbad CA after 23 years in London, with daughter Sophia who lives in London and travels the world

[Heron Intelligence @Heronintel]

Today marks a new chapter for Heron Intelligence.

We have completed our merger with Paragon Intel, creating the world's largest management insights provider and establishing management intelligence as a fundamental category of investment research.

For more than 20 years, our focus has been consistent: helping investors understand companies more deeply by evaluating the leadership driving company performance. That work has built a distinctive body of intelligence:
🔸 80,000+ proprietary interviews
🔸 Insights spanning 5,000+ public and private companies
🔸 250+ investment firms served
🔸 The largest management diligence database in the market

By combining with Paragon Intel, we now bring together investigative diligence expertise with ManagementTrack, a management-first data platform developed by former buy-side investors to help asset managers and hedge funds evaluate executives systematically.

Together, we have built an end-to-end system for understanding what executives have done, how they lead, whether their capabilities match the challenges facing their companies, and how management may influence future performance.

The merger also reflects the combined leadership of both organizations. Nate Singer continues as CEO and Chairman of Heron Intelligence, while Blue Heron founder David Rynecki leads the firm's core research and diligence division as President. Paragon co-founder Ty Popplewell joins as President of ManagementTrack, and co-founder Colby Howard will lead a new division, with details to follow later this year.

This is just the beginning.

Read the full announcement: link in comments.

[Heron Intelligence @Heronintel]

$INTC doubled estimates and jumped after hours. By the next morning it was down 8%. Management framed a record server quarter and yields ahead of plan as proof the turnaround has arrived. Our post-earnings calls with five former Intel operators suggest two pieces are still missing.

First, foundry. All five sources engaged the external foundry claim, and none characterized $293 million of quarterly revenue as commensurate with the ambition. The proof they want is committed volume, not pilot work and PDK milestones.

A three-decade corporate veteran who worked closely with Intel Foundry: "And if the customers believed that they could really execute, that they would be able to get the products they need, then they would be sold out, right? And they're not sold out." Back in Q1 (April), a former product executive said the same thing differently: Intel needs to "prove that they can manufacture for somebody that isn't them." Three quarters of calls, same ask.

Second, 18A yields. Management says output exceeded targets by 25%. Sources did not dispute the number. They disputed what it means at scale. A former VP in Intel's high-performance computing and AI group named the mechanism: "A fab process can be completely stable and have amazing yields for tiny die, but when you start getting to die that are 750 mil per side or something like that, the yields will plummet." A former product director recalled prior nodes where qualification results did not hold in production. Process stability and large-die yield are different problems, and Intel's largest, highest-priced chips are the most exposed.

The October 14A PDK release is the next checkpoint. Management framed it as the moment customers get excited. Sources framed it as the window where a whale either commits volume or stays in pilot.

That gap is what separates a foundry business from a foundry promise.

Source views are those of former employees interviewed by Heron. Not investment advice.

[Heron Intelligence @Heronintel]

$NOW rallied after the Q2 print, snapping a two-quarter sell-off streak. Management's framing: AI ACV crossed $1 billion, agents resolve 80-85% of L1 requests without humans, the inflection is here. Our post-earnings interviews with four former ServiceNow operators surfaced two things worth knowing behind those headlines.

The 80-85% autonomous resolution figure drew the sharpest pushback. All four sources questioned the denominator.

A long-tenured senior executive in IT operations who worked across ITSM and CMDB said 75-80% of L1 volume resolved at Tier 1 before AI existed, through knowledge articles, self-service portals, and basic routing. In their read, the figure restates a pre-existing baseline: "Even at ServiceNow, I do know for sure, even before AI, those 80% of the volume of the tickets never used to come to Tier 2 or Tier 3, because that was purely knowledge gap, documentation gap, training gap, or learning gap, right? … I think this is just a marketing gimmick or a massage or a message just to ride the AI wave or boom, and it has nothing to do with AI."

The second gap sits in the AI ACV itself. Management framed roughly half of net new ACV as non-seat revenue. A former sales director who spent five years in ServiceNow's go-to-market organization put his field checks nearer 20%. Both can coexist under different definitions, but the distance matters: it separates a consumption model gaining real traction from a seat franchise compounding while AI provides the narrative. Back in Q1 (May), one of our sources on the product side was already asking for the disclosure that would settle it: "AI tokens consumed from real production audits, not the sandboxes or experimentation." That disclosure still does not exist. As the sales source put it: "You've got the leaders in these investor calls saying that it's happening. The non-seat revenue is 50%, and all of the checks out in the field are around 20%, right? So, it's really about how do you increase that number in a believable fashion."

Our sources treated the 98% renewal base as the durable core, and none predicted near-term erosion. The open question is whether the AI layer priced on top is incremental economics or repackaged ones. Two things settle it from here: resolution disclosure segmented by complexity and escalation paths, and convergence between management's non-seat mix and what the field is seeing. One leading indicator upstream of both: proof-of-concept activity across the install base. As one source flagged, when accounts stop experimenting on the platform, expansion flattens before any renewal metric moves.

Source views are those of former employees interviewed by Heron. Not investment advice.

[Occupy Democrats @OccupyDemocrats]

BREAKING: Republican 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is publicly humiliated as a fed up New Hampshire voter gets on the microphone and unleashes a brutal rant against him right to his face.

The voter started her rant by putting Ramaswamy on notice that he isn’t even “fit” to be “the principal” of her “child’s elementary school.”

Then, she called Ramaswamy out for his "seemingly nonsensical fast-talking empty words interspersed with name dropping Thomas Jefferson and George Washington” — and declared that his ridiculous rants “should not be misconstrued as knowledgeable.” 

But she wasn’t done there…

She then looked Ramaswamy dead in the eye and compared him to Donald Trump — and not in a favorite light:

“Just a few years ago, we all saw firsthand the disastrous results when a ruthless capitalist, a scam artist, a showman and a liar could, with no public service experience, became the president of the United States — and yet, we are here again.” 

Then, she finished off her devastating takedown by accusing Ramaswamy of having “illogical and dangerous positions regarding just about everything under the sun.”

BRAVO!👏👏👏

Please retweet and ❤️ to thank the voter for calling Vivek Ramaswamy out to his face — and consider joining the growing exodus to Tribel, a woke new Twitter competitor that banned Trump for life and is exploding in popularity because Elon Musk banned Tribel’s Twitter account — but he forgot to ban this link to download the new Tribel app: https://t.co/HnJzSKjCwX

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@jonweisman You guys should discuss the dreadful called third strikes on both Padres and Giants today that took the bats out their hands, including low called third strike on Austin Slater. So poor, hope that ump (Blake) excluded from playoffs. Really painful and pathetic umpiring.

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@DALLASBRADEN209 let’s not forget Astros were 60-21 at home with possible “trash can” advantage!

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@NYPRPR Congrats on your new role and thank you for stiffening the spine of The Chronicle and broadening its scope of coverage.

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@DanRodricks @baltsunguild @SaveOurSun Dan, this is such tough news, and you have been such a positive force for change and conscience of the community. You have a strong voice that will find another home soon. Stay strong, blessings to you and your family.

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@audreyhasnews Very sorry you are leaving The Chronicle, you have it a sharp focus, a strong spine and an exciting enthusiasm. Thank you, Audrey, and please let us know your new gig!

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

This open letter from a Yale epidemiologist about this pandemic warrants further reporting and reading about sustained social distancing and stay at home measures to mitigate the spread of COVID19

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

Hold the Line | Metropole https://t.co/bhyMBFS03T

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@mannyNYT This open letter from a Yale epidemiologist about the pandemic warrants further reporting:
https://t.co/bhyMBFS03T

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@susanslusser It’s again a question of what did Hinch know and when did he know it. Then it’s what did he do besides breaking a tv monitor. This is all about accountability and goes beyond whether he did or didn’t like it. He is the field boss. I humbly suggest suspension was not enough.

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

Outrageous

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@newballpark @Athletics No

[Senator Adam Schiff @SenAdamSchiff]

When the President:

Denigrates the independence of the judiciary,

Attempts to have Justice Dept investigate his rivals,

Calls the press an “enemy of the people”

That’s what attacks on the rule of law look like.

When Congress fights back:

That is what democracy looks like.

[Susan Slusser @susanslusser]

Security guard here at Safeco told me, “Every baseball fan in America who doesn’t have a team in the playoffs this year is rooting for the A’s. What a great story.”

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@RealJoshReddick Sorry, Josh. In a season of 162 games, you’ll get some calls and loss some. Your record is more than this call against the Yankees or last month against the A’s. You are a great player, so own it, good calls and bad!

[William Sutcliffe @Will_Sutcliffe8]

I've always felt Corbyn is maligned by the mainstream media, so I went to this - to hear him speak in a non-confrontational setting. What I learned is that he is flat, uninspiring, repetitive, dreary, inarticulate and vague. Bitterly disappointing and enraging.

[Paul Mindus @mellowfellowuk]

@RealJoshReddick glad Altuve coming off DL but also glad Stros are in fight for their lives with our A’s, who are for real and even better than 2012!