@BobLoukas@jpthor Never thought i'd see Bob interested in the ins and outs of an (admittedly unique and quite useful) altcoin. Interesting development. As a long time follower of both you and Thorchain I'd love to hear your thoughts on the protocol if you have any
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@LynAldenContact Ender's Game (and the next few books)
The Expanse series
Project Hail Mary (best standalone sci-fi book)
Three body problem trilogy (especially once you get into the Dark Forest theory)
Foundation series
Ready Player One (and Two)
If I had to pick the most egregiously overvalued smoke and mirrors token in all of crypto that I suspect will result in the biggest losses to current holders, I would choose $ONDO. If this tweet spares even just one uneducated holder from the impending -99% loss, I will consider it a success.
$ONDO trades at a mind boggling $7B FDV. The business's two core products, USDY and OUSG, have $444M and $206M, respectively ($650M in total).
For starters, from an investor's perspective this is a tough business. Their two products are simply just wrappers on Blackrock's BUIDL. If you're asking yourself why an already tokenized money market fund needs a company/project to tokenize its tokenized fund, trust your gut. The reason is because Ondo launched these products pre-BUIDL, but as it stands today, there is no reason you would use USDY and OUSG over BUIDL. You are introducing additional counterparty risk for no reward, full stop. To summarize, Ondo has no moat and now has competition from Blackrock, who they send all of their assets to anyways. Ondo's business business as it stands today will not exist in a year or two.
On top of this, short-term interest rates are falling and reducing the demand for their products. With a 50 bps Fed cut in the rearview and another 50 bps likely over the next few months, short-duration money market funds become way less attractive and will likely lead to outflows to higher yielding assets.
Additionally, let's assume I am completely wrong on the above and the business is strong and keeps growing. The valuation still makes no sense. Their take rate is 0.15% on the assets in these products, but they've actually waived their fees until 1/1/2025 so they're actually not earning anything. When that fee waiver ends, it's likely all of their assets leave for the BUIDL product (safer, cheaper, higher yield - no brainer). But let's assume for the sake of it that they are earning that ~$975k of revenue per year (15 bps * $650M). That is over a 7,000x FDV / revenue multiple on a near-zero margin business with no moat and increasing competition.
Finally, looking out to January 18, 2025 (83 days from now), ~45% of $ONDO supply unlocks, equating to ~$2.7B market value at today's FDV. This likely includes a lot of team and investors ("protocol development" and "private sales"). These cohorts understand the dynamics laid out above very well and if they have half a brain they will dump this thing faster than I can press send on this tweet.
As with anything, do your own research.
@duonine Haven't you repeatedly shilled DOT over the past few months? It crashed -93% from ATH and is still at -92%...have you revised your investment thesis on it?
AAVE crashed -93% and is now -73%
AVAX crashed -94% and is now -81%
Rune crashed -96% and is now -75%
So???
@BobLoukas Much better than being a Broncos fan. You start the season believing, they suck, eventually the drop out of playoff chase and you switch to "fuck it lets tank for a future QB" and miraculously then they start winning...thus never leaving the QB purgatory
@Varavas9@book_io 99 Ada για ένα whitepaper χωρίς (announced) utility είναι overpriced για μένα. Είμαι περίεργος να δω πως θα πάει το Stuff Genesis Asset μεθαύριο...1 million Ada είναι...κάπως extreme
@Varavas9 Εγώ είδα ένα curve που θα ανηφορίζει για τα πρώτα 5 χρόνια (και μετά θα πέφτει για τα επόμενα 95 λογικά). Δύσκολο να βγουν ασφαλή συμπεράσματα χωρίς τα αναλυτικά τοκενομικς, αλλά όπως έχουμε δει και σε άλλα projects εντός Cardano (Vyfi) το μακροχρόνιο distribution ίσως είναι meme
@Varavas9@AltWonderland Το είπες και μόνος σου ρε συ...ο Justin φαρμάρει και οι κλώνοι του απλά τον εκμεταλλεύονται για να φαρμάρουν engagement και αυτοί. Ο χώρος (δυστυχώς) είναι γεμάτος από τέτοιους...η δουλειά μας είναι να ξεχωρίσουμε την ήρα από το στάρι
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