honey

a small creator (｡•﹏•｡) | sharing my @Polymarket journey

[honey @melorchk]

who will die in stranger things: season 5?

i’ve been a stranger things fan for ~7 years.
i know the fandoms, the theories, and how this show usually handles death and drama.

so let’s break it down,
what the market thinks vs what the story logic suggests.

> important note from the duffer brothers

the duffers said season 5 will include one of the most brutal deaths in the show’s history.
they also hinted that it won’t be an obvious one.

that alone makes me doubt the top consensus picks.

> eleven (52%)

this is where most of the money is.

and yeah, it makes sense.
a lot of people died directly or indirectly because of her.
from a narrative standpoint, her sacrificing herself would complete her arc.

it’s the most classic ending.
that’s exactly why the market loves it.

> jonathan byers (17%)

also a very logical candidate.

tv rule #1: when a character starts planning a future, they’re in danger.
jonathan has a ring. he plans to propose to nancy.

it’s very easy to write a scenario where he dies before that happens.

> robin (17%)

secondary character, but something feels off.

she’s getting a lot of screen time in season 5.
that usually means narrative importance.

either robin dies, or her girlfriend does.

this fits perfectly with the idea of a non-obvious death.

> steve harrington (16%)

the most expected death.

the entire fandom is mentally prepared for it.
he’s always protecting the kids.
self-sacrifice fits his character perfectly.

plus the duffers recently baited this on the tonight show, the hint was very on the nose.

and that’s the problem.
it’s too obvious.

> will byers (16%)

the original center of the story.

people have been trying to save him since season 1.
others died because of him.
he’s deeply tied to the upside down.

like eleven, he could sacrifice himself and close the loop for good.

lore-wise, one of the strongest candidates.

> jim hopper (11%)

they’ve been baiting his death since season 3.

he could easily die protecting eleven or joyce.
emotional, but not shocking.

again, maybe too expected.

> nancy wheeler (11%)

story logic says: if one from the jonathan/nancy pair dies, it’s jonathan.

popular theory: after his death, nancy finds the ring he never got to give her.

that moment alone is a strong argument against her dying.

> characters unlikely to die

< derek > new + young
< mike > never death-baited, but could die protecting eleven if duffers go full misdirection
< holly > child, probably survives
< dustin > already emotionally dead inside
< max > waking her from a coma just to kill her would be weird
< joyce > no strong narrative reason
< lucas > possible sacrifice for max, but less likely than others

> market context

this market is still small, around $250k total volume.
the rest of the characters have tiny percentages.

also important:
the final season won’t have just one death.

which means there are multiple strong candidates, not a single obvious winner.

> final thought

the market is pricing the obvious.
writers usually don’t do that.

good luck, fam.

@zscdao | @PolymarketTrade

[honey @melorchk]

@gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade i think 500k is safe, but the percentage difference here is huge.

[honey @melorchk]

@StarPlatinum_ always more more and more

[honey @melorchk]

@seinzy agree 100%
my goal: make a 100x using Polymarket

[honey @melorchk]

@web3filthy oh no
big cringe

[honey @melorchk]

@0xHvdes love this socks hahaha

[honey @melorchk]

@milaidik polymarket!

[honey @melorchk]

Jan 2025: setting big goals.

Dec 2025: overthinking the fallen goat.

[honey @melorchk]

@phosphenq @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade thanks for this!

[honey @melorchk]

@tsybka @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade interesting market

[honey @melorchk]

@shivst3r yeah, there were definitely a lot of opportunities to make money this year.

[honey @melorchk]

@0xEthan 100% agree

[honey @melorchk]

@thenarrator new memecoins are a prediction lol

[honey @melorchk]

@tsybka @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade yooo he is really cooking

[honey @melorchk]

@CanadianCarnac @Kalshi @KalshiEco big congrats!

hope 2026 will be better for you

[honey @melorchk]

@milaidik yooo so good tips

[honey @melorchk]

@honey8bb there’s always time for that, even on a monday haha

[honey @melorchk]

@qwerty_ytrevvq this will definitely be stranger things

[honey @melorchk]

@said116dao @Polymarket there are always two sides…

[honey @melorchk]

@goatyishere @Polymarket daamn i really feel sorry for him

[honey @melorchk]

@herman_m8 @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket yes, this is definitely a good strategy

i use it too