🚨 THIS NUMBER SHOULD NOT EXIST
The U.S. housing market is now at the most unaffordable level in history.
Worse than the legendary 2006 housing bubble:
The median U.S. home now costs $436,000.
Five years ago? $270,000.
That’s a 61.5% price increase.
Wages over the same period? +29%.
To qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home today, Americans need a minimum of $127,000 in household income.
The median household earns about $80,000.
That means 75% of homes on the market are unaffordable for the average American family.
3 out of 4.
Mortgage rates are the second punch.
They went from 2.7% to 6.3% in just five years.
Even if prices hadn’t moved, monthly payments would’ve nearly doubled.
And here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud:
On January 29th, Trump told his Cabinet he does not want housing prices to fall.
He wants them higher.
That’s great if you already own.
It’s brutal if you’re trying to buy your first home.
99% of U.S. counties are less affordable than their historical norms.
The country is short roughly 7.1 million homes.
And construction is slowing.
Existing home sales in 2025 are tracking around 4.1 million.
That’s near the lowest level in three decades.
Homeownership has fallen to 65%, down from 69% in 2004.
This is the largest affordability crisis in modern U.S. housing history.
Prices went up. Rates went up. Wages did not.
And politicians do not want prices to fall.
The average American family is not waiting for a better entry.
That is the trap. They are locked out of the market.
Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
The next call will be even more important.
When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.