AGeraldi

Opportunity starts with the opening bell

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Kekurangan Messi memang hanya belum pernah ke Aceh dan menanan mangrove aja

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Wherever he goes, he'll always be Mr. Mercedes.. alias karena ku gak bakal dukung kuda jingkrak 😂

[Formula 1 @F1]

The moment of victory!

#F1 #BarcelonaGP @LewisHamilton

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Gorengan wak

[Bloomberg @business]

Indonesia was once seen as a darling of investors. But fears of corruption and policy missteps are raising concerns about the country’s economic future
https://t.co/Himk6JYfLr

[op @jaehyungantenk]

Game judi

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

TANSTAAFL

[PROFESOR SAHAM @profesor_saham]

Saat IHSG gini pesannya cuman

Cari saham fundamental bagus bukan karna harganya akan naik, tapi dia punya bisnis yang sustain

kedua diantara saham fundamental baik tadi, cari yang suka bagiin labanya kepada para pemegang saham (dividen)

Thank me later

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Admin bumi terang2an ngasih stockpick gak tuh wkwkwk

[Noah @antibearthesis]

HE FREAKING DID IT AGAIN

DONALD TRUMP KEEPS TELLING YOU WHICH STOCKS TO BUY

HE CALLED:
$INTC AT $20 → +500%
$DELL AT $235 → +80%
$NOW AT $90 → +40%

NOW HE’S CALLING:
$IBM AT $297

“I’M SURE IT’S GONNA GO UP ALOT”

ARE YOU GOING TO MISS OUT AGAIN?

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

2 UCL vs 2 Handphone

[Seur @Seur101]

Ten years later and it’s still the best game in the hero shooter genre.

[Rizki Salminen | 🩷💜💙 @tilehopper]

Idealisme ada bukan buat kasih kamu makan. Kalau emang harus kerja di Dapur SPPG ya udah kerja aja, posisi lu masih dibawah dan ada tanggungan.

Idealisme itu harus ada kalau kamu nanti sudah punya jabatan, apapun itu, bahkan kalau cuman jadi kepala dapur MBG.

Agar menjaga amanah yang diberikan, agar lo bisa ibadah dengan tenang, dan agar lo tidak berbuat jahat dan dzalim kepada orang orang yang mempercayakan kamu untuk memimpin mereka.

Agar lo selalu berempati dan berpegang teguh pada pendirian, walaupun diancam dan dijauhkan oleh kawan kawan yang jahat.

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Barang impor yang nanti dikonsumsi rakyat desa kan pake nya dollar pak 😂

[Jejak digital. @ARSIPAJA]

Prabowo: "Rupiah begini dolar begini. Orang rakyat di desa nggak pakai dolar kok! Ya kan?"

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

The stock market is the greatest wealth-building tool ever created in human history.

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Makin mudah aja gawean

[Claude @claudeai]

Claude for Excel, PowerPoint, and Word are now generally available, and Claude for Outlook is in public beta.

As Claude moves between your Microsoft apps, it carries the full context of your conversation.

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Masih punya UST dan USDT sampai skrg ternyata bukan ide yang buruk

[Call me Al 🇵🇸 @raykairi]

Diksi yg paling saya benci itu salah satunya adalah "bare minimum"
Karena dua kata itu kaya mengecilkan usaha seseorang, padahal bisa jadi bagi kamu itu bare minimum tapi bagi orang lain itu adalah effort.

Buat kalian mau laki atau perempuan, apapun hal kecil yg pasangan kalian lakuin, tolong jangan menyebut itu bare minimun yah. Hargain hal yg pasangan kalian lakuin ke kamu.

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Super interesting!

"Financial Liberalizations, Booms, and Crashes" by Maximilian Grimm, Moritz Schularick, and Emil Verner.

"Financial liberalization is often seen as a way to deepen credit markets and stimulate economic growth, but it may also fuel credit booms that end in crisis. We construct a new cross-country database of banking regulation policies covering 21 regulatory indicators for 18 advanced economies since World War II. We distinguish liberalizations that directly relax constraints on credit supply from broader financial reforms. Liberalizations that directly affect credit supply lead to substantial expansions in private credit. Credit expansion is concentrated in non-tradable sectors and is not accompanied by higher interest rates or credit spreads in the short run, consistent with an outward shift in credit supply. Real GDP rises over the following 2 to 4 years, but the gains are temporary. On average, GDP returns to trend in the medium run, and there is an increase in the risk of financial crisis and worse downside growth outcomes. Only liberalizations that directly expand credit supply generate these boom-bust dynamics. Based on these estimates, financial liberalization is welfare-improving for coefficients of relative risk aversion below 7.2, a moderately high value."

https://t.co/kT5xHn5riD

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Bull trap

[AGeraldi @meneerblue]

Trust in the commodities

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed.

But Indonesia is a different story entirely.

Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure.

What makes Indonesia different is this.

Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable.

The bull case is what nobody is talking about.

Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore.

Then there's coal.

When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up.

Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up.

Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply.

You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives.

But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it.

The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it.

Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.

[G2 Lynx @LynxiLynx]

BRO WHAT IS THE INDONESIAN VAL COMMUNITY EVEN ABOUTTT 😭😭😭