I have cracked the fucking code.
We bottom this year August-September latest. Earlier than previous cycles.
It then takes $BTC just under a year to create a new ATH.
Based on the math, we are 427 days from creating a new all time high.
And we are 120 days from creating a bottom. That means... we form a new ATH precisely between April and August 2027.
Based on this metric, we have completed 75% of the bear market.
In this image, I am measuring the time from each election to the first bull market peak, as well as how long it takes Bitcoin to surpass that peak following the subsequent election day.
The cycles are accelerating, with shorter bear markets and faster recoveries.
In the next 1 year, I’m either going to look like a genius or a complete fool. This is my prediction based on current patterns and their timing.
No complexity. No accident.
10/10 was caused by irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain companies.
On October 10, tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. As CEO of OKX, we observed clearly that the crypto market’s microstructure fundamentally changed after that day.
Many industry participants believe the damage was more severe than the FTX collapse. Since then, there has been extensive discussion about why it happened and how to prevent a recurrence. The root causes are not difficult to identify.
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What actually happened
1.Binance launched a temporary user-acquisition campaign offering 12% APY on USDe, while allowing USDe to be used as collateral with the same treatment as USDT and USDC, and without effective limits.
2.USDe is a tokenized hedge fund product.
Ethena raises capital via a so-called “stablecoin,” deploys it into index arbitrage and algorithmic trading strategies, and tokenizes the resulting fund. The token can then be deposited on exchanges to earn yield.
3.USDe is fundamentally different from products such as
BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI, which are tokenized money market funds with low-risk profiles.
USDe, by contrast, embeds hedge-fund-level risk. This difference is structural, not cosmetic.
4.Binance users were encouraged to convert USDT and USDC into USDe to earn attractive yields, without sufficient emphasis on the underlying risks. From a user’s perspective, trading with USDe appeared no different from trading with traditional stablecoins—while the actual risk profile was materially higher.
5.Risk escalated further as users:
•converted USDT/USDC into USDe,
•used USDe as collateral to borrow USDT,
•converted the borrowed USDT back into USDe,
•and repeated the cycle.
This leverage loop produced artificial APYs of 24%, 36%, and even 70%+, widely perceived as “low risk” simply because they were offered by a major platform. Systemic risk accumulated rapidly across the global crypto market.
https://t.co/IK2gW4xUOP that point, even a small market shock was sufficient to trigger a collapse.
When volatility hit, USDe depegged quickly. Cascading liquidations followed, and weaknesses in risk management around assets such as WETH and BNSOL further amplified the crash. Some tokens briefly traded near zero.
The damage to global users and companies—including OKX customers—was severe, and recovery will take time.
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Why this matters
I am discussing the root cause, not assigning blame or launching an attack on Binance. Speaking openly about systemic risks is sometimes uncomfortable, but it is necessary if the industry is to mature responsibly.
I expect there may be significant misinformation and coordinated FUD directed at OKX in the near future. Even so, speaking honestly about systemic risk is the right thing to do—and we will continue to do so.
As the largest global platform, Binance has outsized influence—and corresponding responsibility—as an industry leader. Long-term trust in crypto cannot be built on short-term yield games, excessive leverage, or marketing practices that obscure risk.
The industry needs leaders who prioritize market stability, transparency, and responsible innovation—not a winner-take-all mentality where criticism is treated as hostility.
Crypto is still early.
What we choose to normalize today will determine whether this industry earns lasting trust—or repeats the same mistakes again.
People have underestimated the impact of 10/10. The incident caused real and lasting damage to the industry.
An industry-leading company should focus on strengthening core infrastructure, building trust with global users and regulators, and protecting the long-term interests of the majority of crypto users, setting an example for others to follow. Instead, some chose to pursue short-term gains—repeatedly launching Ponzi-like schemes, amplifying a handful of “get-rich-quick” narratives, and directly or indirectly manipulating the prices of low-quality tokens, drawing millions of users into assets closely tied to them.
This has become their shortcut for attracting traffic and user attention. Legitimate criticism is then drowned out—not through facts or accountability, but via aggressive narrative control and coordinated influencer campaigns.
This approach does not build an industry.
It erodes trust—and ultimately, everyone pays the price.