Merlin

Plan A

[Merlin @merlinb04]

My trading journey started about a year ago.

Since then, I went from knowing nothing about trading to being able to call pivots on any chart, simply by using technical analysis.
s/o to @Larskooistra_ and @Wyckoff_Insider for all the educational stuff you provide for everyone!

Despite my technical skills, I can’t call myself profitable yet.
Why?
Mental game.
Overtrading.
Mediocre setups.
Greed.
Feeling behind in life → chasing fast money.

One year of unrealized PnL.
Breached evaluation accounts.
Breached funded accounts.
Small wins just to keep me going.
And an exhausted mind towards the end of 2025.
Until I took a step back.
I started trading my own capital.
I took $5 trades to remove emotional attachment.
I gained confidence.
Now, I’m restarting my trading journey.
I’ve made a plan going forward, and I’m sharing it here to keep myself accountable.

From now on, I’ll share every trade I take and my thoughts behind them here on X.
This will be a consistent series about my trading journey and everything that comes with it:
wins, losses, setbacks, thoughts, and learnings.
A journal for myself.
Showtime.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

@RuurdSnijdtDoor Cooking

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native MTF

Quick recap.
Honestly I nailed this preplan right here.
This should not be a self glaze, just appreciation of the improvement to preplan a MTF pivot and it actually happening.

Yes, I could've executed it better myself.
Took a short in supply but TPd everything after the first aggressive move down.
Took 1 loss this week and failed to get a reentry for lower although I preplanned this as well.

That's okay, room for improvement.
Exited to fill it.
But I slowly feel the pieces are falling in place.
2 years of studying, being active in the market almost everyday and I'm starting to get a better feeling.

I'm not just seeing wyckoff as this model for accumulation/distribution anymore.
I'm not only seeing it in hindsight when I lay the image with the different phases over it.
I'm not just seeing every model there is and am clueless if it plays out or not.
I'm not guessing if something plays out anymore and just shooting at random setups.

I'm actually starting to see the process in the moment of it happening.
I'm able to answer the "Why?" more often.
A market which seemed to be random starts to make sense.

Let's see if one of the MTF levels plays out as well.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native

It's been a long time.
Here's an update on LTF/MTF Bitcoin chart for the upcoming time.

LTF
Currently in a tight accumulation, building lots of lows but demand getting respected for now.
New monthly candle opened today.
Expecting another bullish fakeout to put in our monthly high in the first few days before reversing into a bearish month.
We can take the high at 87k, I prefer we don't.

HTF/MTF
MTF accumulation in discount completed.
Looking at the current high as our SOS Wyckoff point which is followed by a BU/LPS.
I marked two levels, both make sense to me.
Which one it will be, I don't know.
Comes down to how fast sentiment switches, how fast retail gets bored, how happy market makers are with their positions.

Share your outlook in the comments if you want to.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

@Daitaro01 @hyrotrader_com How are the fees on such scalps?

Could you share it for this BTC setup?

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native update

Yesterday the USD perp chart put in an ugly equal high pivot and after all got the follow through towards lower.
Like I said in yesterdays update I flipped my bias because of timing and expected to go higher going into Token2049 and F1 Singapore.
However we got a late tuesday weekly pivot which is less likely but now very likely to hold for the reminder of the week.

On top of that, pretty much every cunfluence chart confirmed the most textbook distribution so again I'm expecting lower prices this week.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

ethereum:native

[Merlin @merlinb04]

ethereum:native

ETH could develop even cleaner then BTC here so watch both.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native recap + update

Recap
Yesterday again delivered my preferred LTF playbook.
We took out the local high stopping early shorts, put in a PO3 and reversed aggressively towards lower.
This time no execution on my side.
The move up into the manipulation was not exactly on NY open and created 2 demand zones and didn't provide MS to enter which is why I wanted to see more and got left behind.
Happens sometimes.
One more valid model experienced and live forward tested -> best way to improve.

Hence my overall expectation of coming for the weekend liquidity lows, I took this short on the retest of the 15m BB.
I entered before sleep and woke up a bit late.
Price was already moving up and I was not able to derisk anymore.
I ended up closing my POS manually for a slight loss (-0.25%).

Preview
Price had enough opportunity and time to come for the obvious weekend liquidity lows but didn't want to.
A look at the volume profile and we can see that we were basically trying to get acceptance back inside but ended up only retesting it for a move higher now.

That's also my plan for the upcoming days.
Move up deviating our MTF range high to come for the lows later on.
TOKEN2049 coming up and F1 also in SIngapur over the weekend.
Makes sense to get bullish moves into it before reversing price once they're finished partying.

Personally having more patience with trades rn as I know the high probability ones are coming for sure.
Why waste time and maybe even capital before that.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native monday update

To follow up on yesterdays update, we got the bullish move into extreme premium first.
All the liquidity is still intact.

Again two scenarios:

Bearish
Price preferably takes out the local high again to create a LTF range and stop out early shorts before continuing lower after our first manipulation hour in NY.
This would give us the best opportunity to short with conviction.
I'm also watching for rejections of the supply below, just need clear confirmations to take a short then.

Bullish
Price leaves those lows behind and pushes higher, taking out the MTF high to create a new range.
This would give me even more confidence in a bearish rotation later on where I will go heavy with my shorts.
Wouldn't provide an entry rn for me personally.
If so, I'll wait patiently.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native monday update

To follow up on yesterdays update, we got the bullish move into extreme premium first.
All the liquidity is still intact.

Again two scenarios:

Bearish
Price preferably takes out the local high again to create a LTF range and stop out early shorts before continuing lower after our first manipulation hour in NY.
This would give us the best opportunity to short with conviction.
I'm also watching for rejections of the supply below, just need clear confirmations to take a short then.

Bullish
Price leaves those lows behind and pushes higher, taking out the MTF high to create a new range.
This would give me even more confidence in a bearish rotation later on where I will go heavy with my shorts.
Wouldn't provide an entry rn for me personally.
If so, I'll wait patiently.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native update

Either this accumulation is really strong.
Many LPS -> demand in control every time -> more opportunity to fill positions for market makers -> more follow through.

Or all those LPS are simply stacking liquidity lows which will get grabbed in our next move down.

2 local scenarios:

We're building up obvious weekend liquidity which will get grabbed for sure.

Either as another opportunity to liquidate positions and accumulate longs (Bullish scenario/first picture).
Could happen pretty early into the week.

Or we move higher into BB/supply POIs where we get another LTF range/MTF Bojan to establish a third tap on our confluence charts before reversing the whole liquidity trail and move lower towards 80k. (Bearish scenario/second pic).
Preferably first move higher to reverse monday evening/tuesday.

Both make sense to me, but I'm not the one deciding.
Good to be prepared tho.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native update

Gave you my idea in this last update.
Executed it with perfection and confidence myself.

News catalyst into extreme supply followed by an extreme supply retest on NY open before aggressively reversing.
Major SMT with multiple confluence charts.

Second payout for the week.
Let's continue.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native

It's been a long time.
Here's an update on LTF/MTF Bitcoin chart for the upcoming time.

LTF
Currently in a tight accumulation, building lots of lows but demand getting respected for now.
New monthly candle opened today.
Expecting another bullish fakeout to put in our monthly high in the first few days before reversing into a bearish month.
We can take the high at 87k, I prefer we don't.

HTF/MTF
MTF accumulation in discount completed.
Looking at the current high as our SOS Wyckoff point which is followed by a BU/LPS.
I marked two levels, both make sense to me.
Which one it will be, I don't know.
Comes down to how fast sentiment switches, how fast retail gets bored, how happy market makers are with their positions.

Share your outlook in the comments if you want to.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

@Snipezhq Let me guess.

Either eq of 1m rb/sl above 2 tap or 3m rb/sl above 3 tap

[Merlin @merlinb04]

ethereum:native

ETH could develop even cleaner then BTC here so watch both.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native

It's been a long time.
Here's an update on LTF/MTF Bitcoin chart for the upcoming time.

LTF
Currently in a tight accumulation, building lots of lows but demand getting respected for now.
New monthly candle opened today.
Expecting another bullish fakeout to put in our monthly high in the first few days before reversing into a bearish month.
We can take the high at 87k, I prefer we don't.

HTF/MTF
MTF accumulation in discount completed.
Looking at the current high as our SOS Wyckoff point which is followed by a BU/LPS.
I marked two levels, both make sense to me.
Which one it will be, I don't know.
Comes down to how fast sentiment switches, how fast retail gets bored, how happy market makers are with their positions.

Share your outlook in the comments if you want to.

[Merlin @merlinb04]

it's not "who am i?"

it's "who do i wanna be?"

[Merlin @merlinb04]

@Snipezhq gib

[Merlin @merlinb04]

@ChainHubCT How are you planning to profit from a macro rotation on TLT towards 100 and higher?

[Merlin @merlinb04]

$PYPL

🫴

[Merlin @merlinb04]

bitcoin:native / $USDT.D

[Merlin @merlinb04]

EURUSD / DXY

[Merlin @merlinb04]

@WatcherGuru thanks