Michelle Thomas

Certified history nerd. Wanna be meteorologist. Lover of Jesus. Down to talk about politics any time.

[Barstool Sports @barstoolsports]

We as a society might need to delete some tweets about Alabama

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

@BradArnoldWX I’m just wondering if adding a siren to the flood emergency would get people’s attention? I remember when sirens went off for severe t’storm warnings, county wide sirens for tornados instead of only those in the polygon. Siren fatigue is real & I wonder if that would help or hurt

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

@BradArnoldWX I live at the end of Dixie Alley in AL so I identify more with tornado watch fatigue. However I’m a trained NWS storm spotter so I take weather more serious than the avg person. But do you think NWS will have a discussion ab maybe a siren along with a flood emergency warning?

[James Spann @spann]

TEXAS FLOOD: There are many questions about the tragic flash flood on the Guadalupe River late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The death toll is now over 50, including some children who were at Camp Mystic.

Here are some key points about the warning process...

*A flash flood watch was issued for Kerr County at 12:41a CT (just after midnight Thursday night). The watch mentioned isolated rain amounts of 10 inches, and stated "Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks." This followed a flash flood watch that was issued Thursday afternoon.

*A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14a CT For Kerr County, which mentioned "life threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers".

*A flash flood "emergency" was issued at 5:34a CT for Kerr County and the Guadalupe River.

*NWS Austin/San Antonio had five on staff during the event; normally two would be on duty. Extra staffing was planned before the event started.

*This type of flash flooding on the Guadalupe River is nothing new. Similar events happened in 1998, 1978, 1935, and 1921. This year's event was related to deep moisture from a tropical system (Barry) that originated in the East Pacific and made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico, on June 29.

Social scientists will do much research on this in coming months and years. In my opinion one of the primary problems is the high number of false alarms; flash flood warnings that are issued with only minor flooding involved. This is also a problem with tornadoes in many parts of the country. I am very thankful locally NWS Birmingham leads the nation in lowering the false alarm ratio.

One takeaway is the importance of having a NOAA Weather Radio at every home, business, and any place where there are large number of people gathered (like a camp on a river). I would imagine cell service is very spotty along the Guadalupe where the camps were located. NWR does not use cell service and will wake you up. The alert is very loud, and can't be missed.

Again, I ask that you keep political rhetoric off the comment section here; left wing and right wing extremists are pushing false information and narratives are not close to the truth. Now is simply the time to support families that are suffering after the tragedy.

We will have a long discussion on this event with the WeatherBrains crew tomorrow night. In addition to the audio podcast you can watch it live as well on the WB YouTube Channel: https://t.co/pEMFNVP8hl

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

@DHSgov NWS can only do so much. They issue watches, warnings, & emergencies, but they can’t enforce it. Consider hurricanes. You can predict & suggest evacuations but can’t make people leave & many become victims of flooding. This is a tragedy no doubt, but not a singular failure by NWS

[Barstool Bama @BarstoolAlabama]

These fouls are so soft

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

@libsoftiktok I mean maybe Nike was going for the whole “reverse psychology” bit by saying women can’t so don’t try. But it really comes off as tone deaf when we know that they don’t really support women’s sports/spaces in the end. Sad marketing ploy trying to make us victims and hate men…

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

I wonder if Kentucky Republicans are as embarrassed as I am of Mitch McConnell, and I’m not even from there! How did he ever get elected?? He’s part of the problem! #DrainTheSwamp #senateconfirmationhearing

[James Spann @spann]

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AHEAD: A dynamic storm system will bring the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to parts of LA/MS/AL later today and tonight.

In Alabama, there is a "moderate risk" (level 4/5) defined for parts of Sumter, Choctaw, and Washington counties in West Alabama. An "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) extends over to Fayette, Selma, and Mobile. Most of the rest of the state is in a "slight risk" (level 2/5).

TIMING: A few isolated severe storms are possible in the 3 to 9 p.m. time frame, but high resolution models are suggesting these storms will be isolated. The "main show" will come late tonight from 9:00 p.m. through the pre-dawn hours Sunday. All storms should be out of Southeast Alabama by 8:00 a.m. tomorrow.

THREATS: Any isolated storms this evening and tonight will have to be watched for severe potential, but with the "main show" late tonight the highest concern is widespread straight line winds that could feature gusts to 70 mph in spots. This mass of storms will have potential to produce a good bit of tree and power line damage tonight.

Storms could also produce hail and a few tornadoes. The highest threat of long track tornadoes (EF-3+) is in the "moderate risk" area across LA/MS and extreme West Alabama.

GRADIENT WIND: Ahead of the line of storms tonight, gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) will ramp up, gusting to 40 mph in spots.

RAIN: Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are expected for much of Alabama through early tomorrow morning; for now major flooding issues are not expected.

CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a reliable way of getting warnings later today and tonight; a NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline for any home or business. On your phone, be sure and have emergency alerts enabled. Know the safe place in your home (small room, lowest floor, away from windows, and near the center of the house), and have a helmet for everyone (including adults)

If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter (or business that can serve as a shelter), and how to get there quickly. Have transportation available.

BE A HERO: If you are reading this, you pay attention to the weather. Take the time to share important weather information (especially tornado warnings) with family and friends with a text or phone call. You could be the only warning they get.

REMEMBER: Having a severe weather threat in Alabama in late December is nothing unusual. Our tornado season runs from November through May. No need to be alarmed or anxious; just pay attention to warnings, have a plan, and we will get through the this just fine together.

[Saturday Down South @SatDownSouth]

The Playoff committee thought there were 2 teams in this field worse than Indiana. Let that sink in.
Meanwhile, most of us think there are at least 10 Power Conference teams not in the Playoff that would beat Indiana. That is what is infuriating.

[Damien Harris @DHx34]

Alabama should’ve been the 12 seed. Argue with your mama 🤷🏾‍♂️

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

Y’all are for real telling me that you’re happier and would rather watch SMU in this bloodbath than Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, etc.? That powerhouse Indiana sure deserved their spot too 🙄 @CFBPlayoff get over the hate of having multiple SEC teams. This is pathetic.

[Mark Ingram II @markingramII]

This who yall wanted in the playoff 😂😂

[Barstool Gamecocks @Barstool_Cocks]

Real glad Indiana had to be in playoff. Pathetic.

Best 12 teams next year…please.

[Barstool LSU @LSUBarstool]

I try not to be an SEC homer, but my god theres atleast 3 SEC teams that are better than both Notre Dame and Indiana

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

Checking out the cloud formation on the incoming front while hunting this morning in Pleasant Valley! @spann

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

@BarstoolAlabama Wommack needs to step it up or get lost. Our DBs look like they couldn’t cover a cripple man in a wheelchair and we don’t take great tackling angles. If we played as well as we talk shit, we’d be untouchable 🤷🏻‍♀️

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

Seriously @NCAA? This is the best officiating crew you could find? This is a joke. Bama having to play GCU and the refs. Smh #BamavsGCU #MarchMadnes

[T☈EY FULB☈IGHT @TreyTwister_WX]

Tomorrow’s severe weather threat will be over one of the worst spots for radar coverage east of the Rockies. Lowest scan over parts of Northeast TX is ~10,000FT, which can be a problem when trying to detect shallow mesocyclones and QLCS-type tornadic circulations. #txwx

[Michelle Thomas @MeshellLeigh]

Big shelf cloud in Leesburg at Decks and Docks @spann