Met-Set

To enable you to quickly understand and make informed decisions from complex weather ensemble forecasts

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Westerly High this week - widely warm - wet/windy N Europe, dry/sunny mainland Europe, bit of cloud UK.

Scandi-Conti High next week - widely calm/dry/sunny inc. Nordic, sunny UK bit of wind perhaps (more cloud/wind here if we switch to southerly type). Hot W/C Europe - cooler E

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

@antmasiello Yes ERA5 91-20

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

1/5
GLobal Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM or AAM), ever heard of it?

It shows anomalous zonal wind speeds across the Globe, and in the NH, recently anomalous W flow has been 35-45N denoting a south-ward shift in the Jet-Stream but forecast shifts the Jet back to 50-60N

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

5/5
WA (Westerly Anticyclonic) sees a slightly weaker mainland Europe high which allows Atlantic low pressure to cut across N UK/Nordic to bring more wind/precip/cloud here and a cap in temps here - still overall on the warm side - mostly calm/dry/sunny Mainland Europe still.

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

4/5
HFA (High Fennoscandia/Anticyclonic mainland) sees low pressure in the N ATL being held back by a stronger European high pressure to draw more southerly flow esp. W Europe that brings the risk of more extreme warmth - calm/dry/sunny conditions extend into UK/Nordic.

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Early/mid next week sees ATL ridge with low pressure Nordic, but slight shifts in the ridge make a difference. NWA (North-Westerly Anticyclone) where ridge extends into W Europe is warmer here with cold limited to NE Europe. NZ (Northerly cyclonic) keeps ridge west = cold widely

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Northerly coldest direction now. Outlook sees Nordic high (HNF=High over Norwegian sea and Fennoscandia, Z=cyclonic) shift to HNZ (just Norwegian Sea) opens the door to northerly. Colder version of this is NZ (Northerly Cyclonic) which threatens UK May Bank holiday of course...

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Strong/early final stratospheric warming event has brought a surface block (- NAO/AO) clear forecast for HNFZ regime in late Apr. However whilst this is the coldest regime in Feb (DOY33) - blocking doesn't have the same impact now - instead bringing near normal temps (DOY117)

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Whilst all these patterns are westerly-types - the slight differences between them do make a large impact on the energy market - as the zone of strongest winds (map of turbines)/warmest temp anomalies shifts about and thus it is important info to know which pattern it'll be 8/8

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

The outlook is blue! But what does blue mean?
This chart shows the forecast (dates left to right) of pressure at numerous levels (stratosphere at the top & troposphere bottom) where blue is lower than normal pressure, thus strong low pressure dominates across the N. latitudes 1/8

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Late next week still mostly WA/WZ - further risk of wet/windy N Europe - calm/dry S Europe and widely mild. Some risk of being in SWA/NWA instead (not as windy) or even NWZ (North-Westerly cyclonic/Zyklonal) - spreads more wind/warmth into SE Europe - WZ/NWZ less mild N UK 7/8

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

@JanegaTomas @PvForecast Not so in the forecasts but it is far enough out where skill is low and thus could happen - even for cold lovers I think this is the one winter where it's better if it doesn't happen and we turn very mild, otherwise our electricity bills will go through the roof!

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

Latest forecasts (from C3S) for February showing quite a similar outlook in the different models for very mild south-westerly flow into NW Europe - strong ATL low pressure/Mainland Europe high - all except MeteoFrance which has a stronger high pressure. https://t.co/ETYYbPywPV

[Met-Set @Met_Set_UK]

@JanegaTomas @PvForecast The latest ECMWF keeps a solid westerly (blue) vortex aloft extending down to the surface with greater intensity during Feb into March thus agrees with the seasonal signal of ATL low pressure/Mainland Europe high and widespread mild temps - but of course things can always change!