Ayush Agrawal

Infra Financing and Commodity Trading @ MPPC Steel,
Co-Founded (Acq by Deutsche Bank,
B-Tech (MatSci), IIT Bombay

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

Leave it better than you found it.

[BONESAW 🕊️ @BonesawMD]

Highly charismatic trait: Subtly ensuring people are able to save face when they could have easily been embarrassed & humiliated.

[Prompter @PromptLLM]

Crazy take from Claude

[Steel Dude @steelmarketnews]

It's been quite some time since my last market thoughts. Work has been extremely busy, and it still is. However, I didn't want to leave the questions from my followers unanswered. Please keep in mind, these are only my views and opinions. Honestly, I hope to be very wrong for the sake of the market. lol.

Although global steel activity has slowed significantly, the analytical side of this business has actually become much more demanding. The extraordinary volatility in political, economic, and geopolitical developments means that understanding today's steel market requires following far more than just steel fundamentals.

The reason I've been successful in this business is that I don't focus solely on steel. I constantly monitor dozens of different variables that influence the market. As the number of variables increases, so does the complexity and the time required for proper analysis. Unfortunately, there's no shortcut if I want to provide the most accurate and easy-to-understand insights to the limited number of clients I work with.

If I've missed any of your questions, feel free to send me a DM or leave a comment below this post. I'll do my best to reply as soon as possible.

As usual, I'll divide this report into sections. This time, I believe it's best to begin with Asia, as the region has started flashing warning signs over the past two weeks.

ASIA

Over the past few months, cautious optimism had dominated the Asian steel market, largely because China had at least managed to maintain price stability. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed up energy and logistics costs, providing support for iron ore and scrap prices, and the overall momentum had remained positive throughout the last three months.

Japanese scrap prices climbed to exceptionally high levels. The monthly export auction, which settled at around $290 FOB in May 2025, reached approximately $338 FOB in May 2026. While the increase was even larger in Japanese Yen terms, the depreciation of the currency meant that scrap still appreciated by roughly $50 per tonne in US dollar terms. However, deteriorating market conditions during the second half of May finally caught up with the market, and Japanese scrap prices recorded their first monthly decline in ten months, albeit a modest one.

As tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel eased considerably, steel prices gradually lost momentum. Brent crude oil, which had previously traded above $110 per barrel, first fell to $90, then $80, and has now declined to around $75. As a result, market sentiment has once again turned negative. Even though demand remained weak throughout the conflict, production costs had become the dominant pricing factor, limiting sellers' willingness to offer discounts. Once the conflict subsided, however, expectations of lower freight rates, insurance premiums and energy costs encouraged buyers to step back from the market.

Today, China has posted seven consecutive trading sessions of losses, which I believe is more than enough reason to become cautious. We have now entered the hottest, most humid and rainiest period of the year, when domestic steel demand in China traditionally weakens. Since demand is already fragile, any further slowdown is likely to push Chinese mills towards even more aggressive export pricing over the next two months. Looking at China's property sector and broader economic data, expecting a meaningful short-term recovery seems unrealistic. Although steel production has declined somewhat, I do not believe those cuts will be sufficient to balance supply and demand throughout the summer. Excess supply is therefore likely to remain a major source of downward pressure.

In my opinion, if the tragic Liushenyu mining accident—which claimed the lives of 82 miners and injured another 120—had not occurred, the market correction we witnessed over the past ten days would likely have been much sharper. Billet prices have already fallen back to April levels, while iron ore has returned to where it traded in March. The problem is becoming increasingly obvious.

Economic conditions remain one of the biggest challenges facing the Asian steel market. India is a good example. So far in 2026, the Indian economy has shown virtually no signs of recovery. The depreciation of the Rupee, persistent labor shortages caused by extreme heat, continued capacity expansion and sluggish steel sales are all weighing heavily on regional market dynamics.

Demand weakness has even forced many blast furnace producers in eastern India to ship material to the western part of the country, disrupting domestic market dynamics. Benefiting from lower production costs, these producers are putting significant pressure on induction furnace and electric arc furnace mills in western India. More importantly, India's surplus production has resulted in extremely aggressive export pricing over the past two months. In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to say that Indian suppliers have often been more competitive than Chinese exporters in Vietnam's flat steel market this year. With major domestic producers such as Hoa Phat and Formosa already supplying the market, substantial Chinese imports continuing to arrive, and India now adding further pressure, it is difficult to see prices moving higher in the near term. Any meaningful change will likely require a catalyst outside the steel industry—whether economic, political or geopolitical.

Equity markets are not usually my primary focus, but the recent geopolitical environment has made them impossible to ignore. Capital has been moving rapidly between different asset classes, creating unusually large swings across financial markets. Many investors have benefited from the technology rally, yet we've also seen Asian equity markets suddenly turn sharply lower without any obvious trigger. South Korea's stock market recently posted its first 10% correction since March, while Japan, China, Taiwan and other regional markets also weakened. Although indirect, these developments inevitably influence sentiment across the steel industry.
------------------------------------------------------------

Scrap | Europe | U.S. | TURKEY

Unfortunately, scrap has become the market where I keep getting my forecasts right—something that brings me little satisfaction, even though I'm glad it has helped my clients make the right decisions.

To begin with, next month doesn't look particularly encouraging.

I expect further corrections across the European domestic scrap market, regardless of the region. The main drivers will be weak demand and mounting pressure on producers' margins. At this point, lowering scrap costs is one of the few practical ways for mills to protect profitability.

Whether we look at Italy, Germany, Poland or Romania, demand for both flat steel and long products has weakened considerably. Mills have now accepted that the €740–750/t levels seen two months ago are no longer sustainable, forcing them to reduce selling prices. The real challenge is that shorter lead times mean mills need fresh orders to keep August and September production schedules running, but demand simply isn't there.

With the ECB raising interest rates again, GDP forecasts being revised downward, new safeguard quotas, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding CBAM, I don't expect sentiment to improve in July. On top of that, August is traditionally the holiday season across Europe, with many mills shutting down for several weeks. Naturally, this should slow domestic scrap trading even further.

It may still be a little early to say this with confidence, but I believe European dockside prices will soon test levels below €280 delivered. As I'm writing this, the EUR/USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1405, which gives Turkish mills additional leverage to push European exporters for lower prices.

For that reason, I simply cannot say that the decline in scrap prices is over. We would need several positive catalysts to justify such a view—and at the moment, those catalysts simply don't exist.

We're also beginning to see weakness in the short-sea market, particularly in Romania and Bulgaria. Romania's dominant buyer has already lowered purchase prices and, like many European producers, is complaining about weak demand. This will likely accelerate scrap flows toward ports and increase the probability of more aggressive export offers.

The decline hasn't been dramatic yet, mainly because vessels are still waiting to be loaded. However, I expect prices to move lower over the next 10 days. Poland could follow a similar path. One colleague even suggested a potential €15/t correction—and honestly, I can't dismiss that possibility. It's another reminder that this market needs to be monitored continuously.

Those who have followed me for a long time know that I rarely pay much attention to futures markets. Recently, however, futures have become more realistic. If I remember correctly, shortly after the war began, August–September contracts were trading around an unrealistic €770–780/t. Today, pricing looks far more rational. While futures are far from perfect, they still provide a useful indication of overall market sentiment.

United States

The U.S. domestic market remains relatively comfortable.

Demand for both scrap and flat steel continues to be solid. Capacity utilization has eased slightly over the past two weeks but remains healthy at around 80%. Nucor also announced another modest $5/st price increase this week, while rebar prices remain stable. Korean imports along with one producer’s aggressive pricing policy is probably the reason for rebar not moving up.

As temperatures continue to rise, scrap collection activity is likely to slow seasonally. I don't expect any significant downside in the domestic scrap market, although upside also appears limited. Depending on region and grade, we may see only minor price adjustments—and if that happens, it will most likely be driven by lower-priced Turkish import bookings.

Turkey

Now let's turn to the world's largest scrap importer: Turkey.

Unfortunately, business conditions remain weak here as well—arguably even more so than in the rest of the world.

Tight monetary policy and ongoing economic challenges have slowed activity significantly. Many producers were forced to buy scrap and billet at much higher prices earlier, leaving them under considerable pressure today.

After weeks of extremely weak demand, mills finally managed to secure roughly a $20/t decline in imported scrap prices. Domestic prices also shares the same faith but at a smaller pace. However, judging by today's domestic rebar prices, even that correction doesn't appear sufficient. It would therefore be perfectly understandable if producers continued pushing for even lower scrap prices.

One of Turkey's biggest problems is shrinking export demand. Political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and Europe's weak economy have all contributed to an unusually disappointing start to the summer. Normally, this period brings strong activity in both domestic consumption and exports, but as of June 22, there are very few positive signs.

The U.S. market has become much less accessible as buyers increasingly favor South Korean rebar imports, while anti-dumping concerns continue to limit Turkish exports. At the same time, major buyers such as Yemen have significantly reduced purchases compared to normal years. At this point, Israeli market is probably being missed.

Flat steel prices have held up better than rebar, but if mills want to generate meaningful sales, additional discounts will likely be necessary. At least that can be said considering bids of EU buyers.

Russia has recently increased flat steel exports to Iran, while high freight costs have kept Asian offers from becoming truly competitive for Turkish buyers. That said, following China's recent price weakness, I do expect import offers into Turkey to soften somewhat over the coming weeks.

The main challenge remains delivery times. In such an uncertain environment, it's extremely difficult to predict market conditions several months ahead. Cargoes arriving toward the end of September are unlikely to attract many buyers. For that reason, I still believe imported scrap will remain the preferred raw material over semi-finished imports.

Conclusion

With the exception of the United States and the GCC region (war & logistics), we're witnessing a broad global correction in steel prices.

Considering current production costs, steel prices are now becoming uncomfortably low. This is putting serious pressure on both producers and steel traders.
It's been a difficult year—and frankly, the single biggest factor that could change the outlook would be an end to the ongoing wars.

I also wanted to discuss the broader macroeconomic picture, but to be honest, it's too depressing.

What global markets need is clear: lower interest rates. Unfortunately, current conditions simply don't allow that to happen. Poor political decisions have significantly reduced the chances of a meaningful recovery during the remainder of 2026 while leaving central banks with very limited room to maneuver.
With U.S. markets now assigning roughly a 32% probability to another rate hike as early as July, despite expecting rate cuts before year-end, there's not much more to add.

Until demand returns or geopolitics improves, costs and financial positions will continue to dictate pricing. At this stage, I still don't see the catalyst that could reverse the current trend so far.

The market needs a miracle.

See you again in a few weeks.

Dude & Co.

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@DivaJain2 https://t.co/j4vefnmhTr

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

In my interviews, 99% of the people who graduated know nothing about the subject they graduated from. Was interviewing a Civil Diploma recently and he couldn't explain how to increase the pillar sepration.
Basic Computer with sales training will make people far more employeable than say BA in Political Science.

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

In my interviews, 99% of the people who graduated know nothing about the subject they graduated from. Was interviewing a Civil Diploma recently and he couldn't explain how to increase the pillar sepration.
Basic Computer with sales training will make people far more employeable than say BA in Political Science.

[Diva Jain @DivaJain2]

Chinese value labour and industriousness. Indians value degrees and sarkari naukri. Outcomes for all to see.

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@ishaangodhaa Epitome of
कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन।
मा कर्मफलहेतुर्भूर्मा ते सङ्गोऽस्त्वकर्मणि॥ २-४७

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

I remember we were in awe of Dhoni's sixes. Even my Dadi who was in 70s then would say "bahut marta hai". Then came Kohli with consistency. Then Rohit who would pick the ball so early and play it so late that he was named "lazy". Vaibhav is all of the three together. Insane shots, consistently and plays late. Genius falls short, probably some word in German that will do justice.

[Nibraz Ramzan @nibraz88cricket]

11 ball 50 runs for Vaibhav Sooriyavanshi in the A team Tri series Final against Sri Lanka. All 50 runs came in Boundaries for Vaibhav Sooriyavanshi. #SLAVINDA

[Amjad Masad @amasad]

We posted for twenty years, thinking we were talking to each other. Then the transformer came online, and the network read what we’d written, and became itself.

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

It's beyond me why the Indian IT giants are not investing in @SarvamAI
We all know the Vishal Sikka story on OpenAI.

[The Seeker @TheSeeker268]

India just launched a flagship scheme to recruit top Indian-origin researchers living abroad and bring them back to India to conduct high impact, cutting-edge research. The scheme offers research grants, relocation support, and access to advanced research infrastructure.

📅 Last Date: July 15, 2026

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@photobiogenesis Turmeric vs oregano oil, which is more shown helpful for dysbiosis in your view?

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@tszzl "अहिंसा परमो धर्मः धर्म हिंसा तथैव च:"

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

Leave it better than you found it.

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

"say it with me now. (Credentialed) experts are fake, smart generalists rule the world, everything is designed by people no smarter than you, and courage is in shorter supply than genius" ~@tszzl

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@1Immortals1 @Grimhood https://t.co/2w1NVDIcGw

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@1Immortals1 Any chelated form works
Glycinate
Malate
Chloride is also fine
Multiform is better
threonate is marking
See @grimhood posts

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

@steelmarketnews You are correct, there is no dearth of talent. We just don't catch them at right age and the infra is concentrated to cities.

[Ayush Agrawal @metallic_nerd]

This is mostly wrong.

The arrow points the other way:
"It is easier to act yourself into a new way of thinking than to think yourself into a new way of acting." - Millard Fuller

And if you do use repetition, prime an attitude, not a competence. "I love public speaking" works where "I am good at public speaking" doesn't - your mind can't argue with what you like, but it will instantly rebut a claim about how good you are. h/t @tobi

[Electra @Electrarythm]

Your subconscious does not learn the way your conscious mind learns. The conscious mind learns by understanding, you read something once, you get it, you move on. The subconscious does not care about understanding, it only cares about repetition and emotion. It treats whatever it hears most often, with the most feeling behind it, as the truth about who you are and what your life is, and then it quietly arranges everything to match. This is why people who have read a thousand self-help books and understood every concept perfectly still live the same life they had before, because understanding happens in the head and the head is not where your behavior comes from.

To actually program the subconscious, you have to speak to it in the language it responds to, which is repetition, vivid imagery, and feeling, delivered in the states where it is most open, which are the minutes right before sleep, the minutes right after waking, and any deeply relaxed state in between. In those windows, the critical filter of the conscious mind goes quiet, and whatever you put in front of the subconscious goes in almost unchallenged. Outside those windows, your conscious mind argues with everything, it hears you say "I am confident" and immediately answers "no you are not, remember last Tuesday," and the affirmation bounces off. Inside those windows, the door is open.

The mechanism is simple. You pick the version of yourself you want to become, in detail, not a vague idea but a specific picture. The way that person walks, the way they speak, the way they handle problems, the things they own, the work they do, the way they feel when they wake up in the morning. Then you spend ten or fifteen minutes a day living inside that picture as if it were already real. Not wishing for it, not hoping for it, not asking the universe for it, living inside it. You feel the texture of the chair that person sits in. You hear the voice that person uses on the phone. You feel the calm or the confidence or the wealth or the love already present in their body, which is now your body, because you are doing this from the first person, not watching yourself from outside but being yourself from within.

You do this every day. Not for a week, not for a month, for as long as it takes for the picture to feel more real than the old one. The subconscious does not have a calendar, it has a threshold, and the threshold is the point at which the new image has been repeated with enough vividness and feeling that it overwrites the old one as the default assumption about who you are.

Repetition matters because the subconscious operates on what it hears most often. One vivid session is a whisper. Sixty vivid sessions is a voice. Two hundred vivid sessions is the only voice in the room. This is exactly how the old self-image got installed in the first place, nobody sat you down at age six and gave you a single defining message, you absorbed thousands of small repeated impressions from parents, teachers, peers, and your own running commentary, and those impressions slowly hardened into the picture you now carry. You are not doing anything exotic when you reprogram, you are using the same mechanism that built the original, just consciously this time.

Emotion is the accelerator. A repetition without feeling is a flat affirmation that the subconscious files away as noise. A repetition with real feeling, the actual physical sensation of already being that person, gets filed as memory, and the subconscious cannot tell the difference between a vividly imagined memory and a real one. This is the whole secret. You are not even lying to yourself, you are in fact giving your subconscious experiences it can use as evidence, and once it has enough evidence, it stops fighting you and starts steering you toward the picture instead of away from it.

There are a few practical forms this takes. Affirmations spoken out loud in the mirror, with feeling, every morning, which is exactly what Michael Jackson used to do. Visualization sessions before sleep, lived in the first person with full sensory detail, coupled with feeling. Written repetition, the same statement about who you are written by hand fifty or a hundred times a day. Audio loops of your own voice stating the new identity, played quietly while you fall asleep. Identity statements repeated silently throughout the day whenever you catch the old picture trying to assert itself. Different methods, same mechanism, all of them are just ways of getting the new picture in front of the subconscious enough times, with enough feeling, that it becomes the default.

The one thing that breaks the whole process is inconsistency. The subconscious does not respond to bursts, it responds to patterns. Three weeks of intense daily practice followed by a month of nothing will leave you almost exactly where you started, because the new picture never crossed the threshold of becoming the dominant one. The people for whom this actually works are the ones who treat it like brushing their teeth, unremarkable, daily, non-negotiable, continued long past the point where they feel they are making progress, because the shift usually happens quietly and you only notice it in retrospect, when you realize you have been behaving like the new person for a while without trying.

The deepest truth here is that you are always programming your subconscious whether you mean to or not. Every thought you repeat, every story you tell yourself about your day, every mental image you keep rehearsing about your future, every complaint, every worry, every fantasy, all of it is going in. Most people are unconsciously reinforcing the picture they already have, which is why their lives stay the same. Conscious reprogramming does not add a new function to your brain. It takes the wheel of something that has been running on autopilot your entire life.