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Mind The Gap... Div futures remain well below consensus estimates for S&P 500 dividends. We see Isolated Dividends as attractive and w/o the risks and volatility of the underlying stocks.
Split it – Investors can choose for the first time:
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We think there’s breaks in the clouds. Could see ~15% and ~25% upside for ’21 and ’22 S&P 500 Div Futures, respectively, from current mkt prices if some recent estimates for S&P 500 divs pan out… north of $59 in ’21 and $64 in ’22. Dividends, a new asset class.
They’re baaack… The S&P Dividends Points Index is now 2% HIGHER than this time 1-yr ago. We think S&P 500 dividends may end down only 1% compared to 2019 levels. Big rebound from April when futures suggested down 33% on the year!
Dividends can drive equity mkt performance. Since 4/2/20 mkt low, the front end of the S&P500’s dividend curve (‘20-‘23) outperformed the S&P’s 27.4% return by ~14%, while the back end of the curve (‘24-‘30) lagged by ~21%. Metaurus – focused on dividends.
11 MORE YEARS? The mkt doesn’t project a rebound to 2019 dividend levels until 2030! That’s far longer than any previous US recovery horizon over the past 60 yrs incl the Great Recession. This may be too pessimistic for dividends (and earnings).
Perspective. Yes, Q2’s $42.5B dividend drop is the worst
since 2009. But mkt div expectations improved massively since Q1 lows. S&P 500 Index 2020 div futures were down ~28% and rallied back to -4% YTD. Similar for the 2021 contract YTD, from -36% to -13% https://t.co/ytoJC3IMxv
Isolated Dividends of the S&P 500 (i.e., SPX 2020 & 2021 div futures), have roughly doubled the index’s ~23% gain of the S&P 500 Index since its April low. We see Isolated Divs as a good proxy for mkt’s projections of corp earnings and an alternative to owning the full index.
The 2020 SPX dividend futures have rallied ~45% from April lows reflecting the mkt's improving expectations for dividends of the S&P 500's component companies. If clarity improves, we may see a similar effect in 2021 div futures still off ~20% YTD (and other isolated dividends).
The dividend curve is very interesting here -- Overall, implied dividend growth rates across the curve remain well below historical averages. We see dividends continuing to offer a good value play on future corporate earnings.
Bond mkt suggesting stagflation? The yield curve has steepened. The answer might be dividend futures. Dividend growth has outpaced inflation 5.8% vs 3.8% over the past 60yrs. https://t.co/M6U9F8gewF
Huge rally in S&P 500 dividend futures today, most up 5.4%-6.2% but still lag the stock mkt since March lows. Is more upside coming? Dividend futures moves are exactly what our patented strategy is designed to capture.
Opportunity in Isolated Dividends? Negative year-over-year S&P 500 dividend growth rates are forecasted by current market prices for 7 of the next 10 years. Yet over the past 60-yrs the average annual growth rate has been +5.8%. Learn more at https://t.co/8xz3e4NDIk