MFC Tactical Lab

Tactical Data Analyst working in lower league football. Boro fan.

Write on Substack here -

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Sonny Carey is Charlton's best attacking player and will be Boro's biggest threat on Tuesday evening.

His non-penalty goals (98th percentile) and shot volume (also 98th percentile) are among the highest in the league, supported by strong underlying chance quality – both npxG (93) and npxG+xAG (80). He gets in good positions and is in the 97th percentile in the league for touches in the oppositions' penalty area.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Hayden Hackney continues to be a progression monster.

Sometimes passes, sometimes carries. He does what he wants.

Match Radar vs. Hull

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

@_kyl6 Agree. Bit of a strange one, as he's done well whenever coming into a Boro team but then never really pulled up trees when on loan anywhere.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Not sure anyone expected Alex Gilbert to lead the game in Tackles prior to the match vs. Hull yesterday

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Two former Boro players currently sit as the most creative players for Hull this season on different metrics.

Ryan Giles top for Expected Assists per90 (xAG).
Matt Crooks top for Progressive Passes per90.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Game day 💪

Match preview below. UTB.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Tactical Preview & Opposition Report
Hull City vs. Middlesbrough

Our pre-match tactical preview is now available on the Substack.

Link is below. Shares and retweets appreciated !

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Hellberg really impressing in this press conference.

Totally on it tactically, seems to be relaxing into the role and comes across as a manager and a guy that you'd put in the work for.

Polar opposite of the last fella.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Ryan Giles is getting back towards his peak 22/23 season output this season at Hull City. Something that Boro will need to keep a careful watch on in the game on Friday.

His assist percentile sits at 98 in 25/26 and 97 in 22/23, and his xAG remains at the 99th percentile in both campaigns. The combined npxG + xAG numbers are also strong, with 93 in 25/26 and 98 in 22/23.

Due to the change in style between Jakirović’s Hull and Carrick's Boro, we see differences in Giles' ball progression stats across the two seasons. Progressive passes dropped from 19 in 22/23 to 13 in 25/26, while progressive carries rise from 69 to 80. At the same time, he receives far fewer progressive passes in 25/26, falling from 97 to 69. He is less frequently released down the line and instead advances play himself through carrying the ball.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

A bit on Hull's metrics in relation to the rest of the Championship.

Attack wise they are very good and are probably a 75th percentile attacking team overall. (But currently outscoring xG pretty significantly, so you'd expect a reversion to mean to come).

Defensively they are WOEFUL. Currently bottom of the Championship on xG Against. Teams can create a significant amount of chances against them.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Thanks for the new follows. Bit of a plug for our match preview vs. Hull City here.⬇️

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Tactical Preview & Opposition Report
Hull City vs. Middlesbrough

Our pre-match tactical preview is now available on the Substack.

Link is below. Shares and retweets appreciated !

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Certainly think this could work. Based on the limited data we have so far on Strelec in a Boro shirt i've been surprised by his creative metrics. Thought he was more of an "out an out striker" when we first signed him, but seems he is also a link player.

He rates strongly on underlying chance quality.
npxG: 83th percentile in the division
npxG + xAG: 85th percentile
xAG: 77th percentile

Expected metrics are much higher than his actual returns, the data shows he is getting into good shooting positions and involved in valuable chance situations, but the output is currently lagging behind the chance quality. Either unlucky so far, bit of negative variance or needs to be a bit more clinical. (Too small sample to really tell)

What's surprised me is the contribution to chance creation as well as finishing:
Shot-Creating Actions: 56th percentile
Assists: 21th percentile
xAG: 77th percentile

His assist numbers should be higher than the actual based on chance quality. Basically, good assists for his team mates, not converted.

His ball-carrying and on-ball threat are decent, so he's bringing some progression in the final third:
Successful Take-Ons: 92th percentile
Progressive Carries: 63th percentile
Progressive Passes: 85th percentile
Progressive Passes Received: 73th percentile

Certainly could work in a False 9 type role based on the above.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Middlesbrough Attack 25/26 Player Radars

No doubt that Morgan Whittaker is flying the flag for Boro's attack at present from a production perspective. Here's a comparison across all key metrics of contribution per 90 across Whittaker, Conrway, Strelec and Burgzorg.

Whittaker has the highest non-penalty goals percentile, with Strelec and Burgzorg stronger on underlying npxG than on actual goals. Strelec shows the highest combined npxG + xAG, indicating the largest total expected contribution among the four. (But under performing output - could be unlucky, could be variance over this small sample)

Conway and Whittaker both sit high for assists and shot-creating actions, while Strelec’s profile leans more towards strong xAG with lower assist percentile, suggesting a higher expected chance creation than his assist tally. Burgzorg has the lowest xAG and shot-creating actions of the group.

Whittaker and Strelec both post high progressive pass percentiles, indicating strong involvement in moving the ball forward with passing. Conway, Strelec and Burgzorg all show higher progressive carry percentiles than Whittaker, pointing to more carrying involvement. All four receive progressive passes at relatively similar, high levels, with Strelec and Burgzorg slightly ahead.

Strelec records the highest successful take-ons, with Burgzorg and Whittaker around the middle. Burgzorg shows the highest attacking penalty area touches, followed by Conway and Whittaker. Whittaker and Strelec take the most shots p90; Conway’s shot volume is low despite strong box-touch and SCA numbers.

Conway and Whittaker post the highest tackle percentiles, with Conway also strong in blocks and interceptions. Strelec sits in the middle for interceptions and blocks but lower for tackles. Burgzorg leads the group in clearances and aerials, indicating greater involvement in defensive and aerial actions.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Link:

https://t.co/sMRO2xwaTP

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Tactical Preview & Opposition Report
Hull City vs. Middlesbrough

Our pre-match tactical preview is now available on the Substack.

Link is below. Shares and retweets appreciated !

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Ryan Giles is getting back towards his peak 22/23 season output this season at Hull City. Something that Boro will need to keep a careful watch on in the game on Friday.

His assist percentile sits at 98 in 25/26 and 97 in 22/23, and his xAG remains at the 99th percentile in both campaigns. The combined npxG + xAG numbers are also strong, with 93 in 25/26 and 98 in 22/23.

Due to the change in style between Jakirović’s Hull and Carrick's Boro, we see differences in Giles' ball progression stats across the two seasons. Progressive passes dropped from 19 in 22/23 to 13 in 25/26, while progressive carries rise from 69 to 80. At the same time, he receives far fewer progressive passes in 25/26, falling from 97 to 69. He is less frequently released down the line and instead advances play himself through carrying the ball.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

The game against Hull City sees the return of Matt Crooks (Tree!) vs. Boro.

Crooks is doing a solid job for Hull this season, but gone are the high level attacking numbers we saw in his 22/23 season at Boro. (Light red on the radar).

Hull City 25/26 (orange)

Crooks looks to be playing a more deep lying, defensive midfield role at Hull than his midfield role at Boro where he was encouraged to get forward. Good passing volume and security, with strong progressive passing this year. With very high defensive activity (tackles, interceptions, blocks, clearances).

Boro 22/23 + 23/24 (two Reds):

Much higher attacking threat (npxG, xAG, shots, box touches).

More running and receiving in advanced zones.

Lower defensive intensity and lower passing security/volume than 25/26.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

25/26 is without doubt the strongest season of his career so far and he's back with a similar profile to his breakout season (although the metrics are stronger this year).

A significant uplift on his output across 24/25. There's a big 25/26 jump in Assists, NP Goals, npxG+xAG, Pass Completion, Passes Attempted.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Joe Gelhardt has been Hull's best player this season and is the main threat to watch out for on Friday. (Although McBurnie has also been very good when he's been on the pitch)

9 goals in 18 Championship games this season for Hull, plus roughly a couple of assists – 11 goal involvements total. That’s 0.59 non‑pen goals per 90, which is elite for the division (95th percentile vs Championship forwards).

Underlying volume is strong rather than freakish: 3.02 shots per 90 (88th percentile) and 0.47 npxG+xAG per 90 (78th).

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Barry Bannan continues to be the closest stylistic fit to Hackney.

Imran Louza at Watford is having an incredible season and has really stepped up this campaign.

There's an argument that Hackey and Louza are currently the best midfielders in the Championship.

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Hayden Hackney continues to be a progression monster in the Championship this season. But with even more direct attacking output himself.

His ball carrying has markedly stepped up a notch. and all metrics are up in chance creation, goal threat, and attacking box involvement.

#Elite

[MFC Tactical Lab @mfctacticallab]

Comparison between Hackey 24/25 and 25/26 output. You can see the clear growth in the attacking metrics.

Pass Completion down a bit, but likely due to player higher up the pitch in more difficult areas.