Miguel Guada

📈 Investing |💡Financial Education | 🔍 Stock Insights |
📚 Financially educated citizens shape their own destiny |
⚠️ Posts are NOT financial advice. #DYOR

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Interesting ...

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Time to rotate into platforms from hardware.

Semis at +20x sales while platforms are totally ignored despite double digit growth.

Forward P/E multiples for some of them:

- $UBER: 17x
- $META: 18x
- $BKNG: 14x

How lower can $UBER or $BKNG trade before it becomes criminal?

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Muy interesante la conversación entre Fernando Miralles e @ivanedlm.

Entre muchas ideas valiosas, me quedo con una reflexión especialmente potente: esa tendencia tan española a mirar con recelo a quien ha construido algo, como si llegar a la vida pública con patrimonio, experiencia de gestión o éxito profesional fuese un defecto y no una credencial.

Iván lo resume con una imagen muy gráfica: al comienzo de cada legislatura parece abrirse una especie de “concurso de pobres”, donde muchos compiten por demostrar quién tiene menos.

Y quizá deberíamos aspirar justo a lo contrario.

Una sociedad sana no debería educarse desde la envidia, sino desde la admiración bien entendida, desde el respeto por lo ajeno, desde la ambición limpia, desde la idea de que crear, ahorrar, invertir, gestionar bien y prosperar son virtudes que fortalecen a una comunidad.

La política debería estar al servicio de ciudadanos libres, responsables y capaces de construir su propio futuro. No de alimentar resentimientos.

Los buenos valores importan. Y mucho.

https://t.co/jbMtS6efZ0

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Aviso a navegantes ...

[InvertirDesdeCero @InvertirDesde0]

📉⚠️Caída máxima de grandes tecnológicas en su 1er año desde su salida a bolsa (IPO):

Facebook: -54%
Twitter: -58%
Alibaba: -49%
Shopify: -52%
Dropbox: -54%
Spotify: -46%
Zoom: -40%
Uber: -68%
Palantir: -53%
Robinhood: -90%
Airbnb: -39%
Coinbase: -57%
Arm Holdings: -43%

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Parex Resources’ $PXT move after Colombia’s election is a useful reminder: political direction matters for investors.

A change in tone can improve confidence, reduce perceived country risk, and make capital more willing to invest.

That matters for oil and gas, but also for banking, infrastructure, energy, construction, consumer businesses, agriculture and the wider economy.

Good policy is ultimately about incentives: legal certainty, stable rules, security, respect for private investment and a practical approach to key industries.

From an investor’s perspective, the point is to observe this with distance and discipline. One election does not make a full investment thesis, and one market reaction should never replace proper analysis.

Still, it is worth noting how quickly assets can respond when investors see the possibility of a more predictable and investment-friendly environment.

A responsible vote can have real economic consequences. It can influence whether capital enters or waits, whether businesses invest or hold back, and whether a country makes better use of its resources and talent.

Colombia has the ingredients, better institutions and clearer rules could make a meaningful difference.

Markets often react first, fundamentals take longer to prove the point.

#Colombia #ParexResources #Investing #EmergingMarkets #OilAndGas #Energy #CapitalMarkets #ValueInvesting #LongTermInvesting

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Excellent point @JeffBezos!

This is exactly why it’s important to understand what business profit really means: not greed, but a quantified signal of value created for others.

When people voluntarily pay for a product or service, prices communicate information. Profit shows that resources are being used in a way people value more than the alternatives.

Charity matters. But building companies that solve problems at scale can create value far beyond any individual donation.

#Business #Economics #ValueCreation

[CNBC @CNBC]

Jeff Bezos: "If I do my job right, the value to society and civilization from my for-profit companies will be much, much larger than the good that I do with my charitable giving."

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Let’s outline some broad strategic positioning ideas around the recent hantavirus outbreak.

The goal is not to predict panic, but to think in scenarios.

So far, WHO, CDC and Africa CDC continue to describe the wider public health risk as low or extremely low, although the outbreak is clearly serious and includes confirmed cases and deaths linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship.

Current framework:

1. Contained outbreak
Stay mostly invested in quality companies. Keep healthcare exposure. Do not chase biotech hype.

2. Extended headline risk
Increase healthcare, diagnostics and liquidity. Reduce travel and cyclical exposure.

3. Serious health alert
Move defensive: cash, healthcare, diagnostics, staples, utilities and some gold.

4. Systemic shock
Capital preservation first. High cash. Avoid travel, cyclicals and leveraged consumer names.

Rough probabilities today:
- Contained: 70%
- Extended headlines: 20%
- Serious alert: 8%
- Systemic: 2%

Main takeaway:

This is not a “buy vaccine stocks blindly” situation.

The better approach is to stay prepared, keep quality as the core, use healthcare and diagnostics for resilience, and preserve enough cash to act if markets overreact.

And honestly, AI creativity is getting out of hand. Enjoy the investor mouse!

#Investing #Stocks #PortfolioManagement #RiskManagement #Healthcare #Biotech #Markets #Hantavirus #AI #LongTermInvesting

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

El coste de oportunidad de estos 20 mil millones son una parte de ese futuro de tantos ahorradores españoles, que ya no será.

[InvertirDesdeCero @InvertirDesde0]

Hay algo peor que tener tu dinero parado en el banco...

Invertirlo en sus productos!!⚠️

DENTRO HILO ⬇️

🏦CaixaBank Monetario Rendimiento

👉 El fondo más grande de España (20.100M€)

💰Comisión anual: 1%

10.000€ invertidos en 2016: 10.536€ hoy (+5.4% en 10 años)

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Mencionas una palabra clave @idafegonzalez, *construir*, algo que no se puede hacer desde el odio y la envidia, al menos no sin robar, claro está.

Desde la política expresamos nuestros principios y talla moral. Se nota la diferencia entre los que como tu y @dollarddoradoyt, intentamos crecer día a día, y la lamentable señora del video, que solo puede vivir monetizando las peores miserias humanas.

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

It is called volatility ...🤣

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Who did this lmao

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Desde luego el crecimiento es lo mas importante, la calidad de las empresas que compras. Ahora, con el primero de los aspectos que mencionas, me parece que marcas una clara diferencia con otros. Comisiones decrecientes pueden ser un incentivo incluso a que los partícipes sean los mejores comerciales del fondo.

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

@idafegonzalez @WorldStockss Felicitaciones Idafe! Estaremos al tanto del progreso.

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Actually, more tired than winning ...🥲

#MarketCrash

[NXT EU @NXT4EU]

The Trump Effect™

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

@VanguardEconomy Cierto Noely, entre los de ayer, no he compartido el tweet correcto :) gracias por la aclaración!

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Great and successful 2026 to everyone holding oil stocks! 🛢️

#Oil #Energy #Maduro #Investing #Venezuela #DJTrump #CrudeOil

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

2025 wrap-up: clearly ahead of the index.
- Outperformance since tracking began: portfolio consistently above the S&P 500.
- 2025 in particular: +34.3% vs +17.3% for the S&P 500 — almost 2x the index.
- Not a smooth ride, not always comfortable, but discipline and patience paid off.

Current portfolio allocation:
- Alphabet 20.32% — $GOOGL #Alphabet
- Meta Platforms 14.85% — $META #Meta
- Microsoft 12.28% — $MSFT #Microsoft
- LVMH 11.34% — $MC.PA #LVMH
- Novo Nordisk 10.13% — $NVO #NovoNordisk
- ASML 7.71% — $ASML #ASML
- The Italian Sea Group 6.94% — $TISG.MI #TheItalianSeaGroup
- Atlas Engineered Products 5.63% — $AEP.V #AtlasEngineeredProducts
- Teleperformance 5.55% — $TEP.PA #Teleperformance
- Constellation Software 5.24% — $CSU.TO #ConstellationSoftware

Looking into 2026:
- A more demanding environment.
- Eyes wide open on valuations, margins, and global risks.
- Many international holdings will need to be reassessed with higher standards.

The goal remains the same: protect capital and keep beating the market.

#Investing #Stocks #Portfolio

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

@yonki_mercados lo ha dicho. Esto es solo cuestión de esperar a tener mucho para arrancar, sino de subirse al carro cuanto antes.

El coste de oportunidad de la espera puede ser muy alto.

[El yonki de los mercados @yonki_mercados]

No hace falta comenzar a invertir con grandes sumas de dinero.

PARA NADA !!

el interés compuesto no pregunta tu apellido, ni tu cuenta bancaria:

Trabaja igual de duro para el que arranca con 1.000 € y realiza aportaciones mensuales ahorrando duro..

que para el que se cree semidiós porque empezó con 100.000 €.

La diferencia real no está en el dinero.

La diferencia está en quién tiene el valor y la convicción de aprovecharlo a su favor

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

The market works in funny ways. Sometimes there’s a great deal right in front of everyone… and almost nobody pays attention.

That’s happening right now.
And yes, even with passive investing. If you buy the S&P 500 today, you’re buying Google at today’s price and today’s weight. Not long ago you could’ve bought it cheaper, with a bigger chunk of your money going into it.

That’s why “just let the index do its thing” isn’t always the smartest move.
The market forgets about good companies from time to time, and that’s exactly where long-term gains come from.

Let’s actually manage our portfolios.
Pay attention, learn, make decisions.
Years from now, we’ll be glad we didn’t sleep on the opportunities everyone else ignored.

#Investing #ValueInvesting #StockMarket #LongTermInvesting #SP500 #GOOGL #TechStocks #SmartMoney #WealthBuilding

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

In the long run, it’s not about catching every rally or buying every bottom.
It’s about having a process you can repeat, even when it’s uncomfortable.
Being flexible, adjusting your views, and staying calm when the market gets noisy is a real advantage.
If you manage yourself well, the portfolio usually follows 🌱.
#Investing #PortfolioManagement #Stocks #Finance #Markets #LongTermInvestor #WealthBuilding #GrowthInvesting #ValueInvesting #GOOGL

8/8

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

Managing a portfolio is a lot messier than it looks in hindsight.
When we see a company up XX%, it’s easy to think: “If I had bought earlier, I’d have made that.”
But real returns depend on everything that happens between those two points, not just the final chart.

Let’s dive in 🧵👇

1/8

[Miguel Guada @mguada88]

As private investors, we can hold more concentrated portfolios than institutions, but everyone has to decide their own comfort level.
Diversification, drawdowns, volatility… there’s no single rule.
Your portfolio ends up reflecting both your analysis and your personality.

7/8