Muhammad Habtry

[Investor Nyangkut @ApestorNyangkut]

THE NEXT SUPERCYCLE.

“CPO — Co-Packaged Optics”

Kalo udah gini flow operation-nya:
- lead time naik
- ASP naik
- qualification ketat
- capex meledak
- yield jadi isu
- vendor consolidation
- Pricing Power -> scalling -> brutal operating leverage.

A Thread!

[Pejuang Sukses @barang_antique]

Jadi saat kita pakai internet ini,
sebagian besar traffic data kita ini (70%-80%) muter2 di data center.

Misal kita search "saham". request ini akan sampai ke data center.
Receivernya akan mengirim request ke "segmen" lain dalam server untuk search artikel,

1/n

[Avelino Guido @AvelinoGuido28]

Adik-adik, kakak-kakak semuanya. Kali ini gw mau bicara tentang sesuatu yang sudah menyiksa rakyat Indonesia selama bertahun-tahun. Bukan korupsi. Bukan inflasi. Tapi sesuatu yang lo rasain setiap kali mau mudik atau liburan dan buka aplikasi Traveloka, lalu langsung menutup aplikasinya lagi karena tidak sanggup melihat angkanya.

Yes. Tiket pesawat domestik Indonesia. Yang harganya bisa lebih mahal dari tiket ke luar negeri. Yang bikin relawan bencana harus muter lewat Malaysia dulu baru bisa ke Aceh. Yang udah dikeluhkan jutaan orang tapi tidak pernah beneran berubah.

Gw udah baca risetnya. Gw udah cek datanya. Dan sekarang gw mau cerita ke lo semua, pelan-pelan, dengan bahasa yang bisa dimengerti semua orang, kenapa ini terjadi dan siapa yang sebetulnya diuntungkan dari penderitaan kita bersama. 🧵

[Not into Finance @notintofinance]

https://t.co/ZDTSjqANlv

[Cheytax Management LLC @Cheytax_1]

True.

That's precisely why "BrokSum" was a bad idea right from the beginning. You're relying on recommendations from analysts whose bonuses depend on pleasing clients, not delivering accurate calls.

Check the breakdown below, they recommend BUY on BCA almost 90% of the time. After the latest earnings? 100%. They couldn't care less about how the stock actually performs. All they care about is hitting their next quarter's bonus. It doesn't mean they're stupid, they know BCA isn't behaving like BCA used to, but the incentive structure in this industry is literally built that way.

And.. that's your answer to "Kok reksadana gue nggak pernah profit ya?" 😬

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

If you ever wonder why the vast majority of sell-side reports are “Buy,” it is not because most stocks are attractive. It is because of incentives.

Sell-side analysts operate within a system built on relationships. Access to company management matters. Relationships with buy-side clients matter even more. Analysts are ranked and rewarded based on votes from institutional investors, many of whom already own the stocks being covered. That creates a natural bias toward maintaining constructive views.

The result is predictable. Negative calls are rare. Downgrades come late. Language gets softened. That does not make the research useless. It just means you need to read it correctly.

Treat every report as a starting point, not a conclusion. Focus on the data, not the recommendation. Track the analyst over time. Who identified inflection points early. Who consistently lagged reality. Who changes their view only after the price moves.

In practice, you are not just analyzing the company. You are also analyzing the analyst. That extra layer of skepticism is not optional. It is part of the process.

[Cheytax Management LLC @Cheytax_1]

WRONG IS PART OF THE GAME.

Lately, a lot of portfolios are getting absolutely wrecked. Down 20%, 50%, even 75%. If we could learn a thing or two from why is that happening? Simple.. humans are wired to avoid being wrong. Nobody wants to be wrong in this world, hate it or love it, that’s just nature or by design..

"Siapa sih yang mau salah?"

You see someone down 30–40% in a "safe" name like ICBP or even BBCA. Low volatility type of stock, cash generating, ok growth is not as usual but.. hey.. low expected return too tho, daily movement average is at 1-2%, how come someone is down nearly half their money there? Not the stocks that are bad, just how they react to the market that is wrong.

Instead of cutting, people start justifying:

"Businessnya masih ada kok"
"Kata si ini mau dikerek ke xxxx"
"Bottom lah udah max fear"
"Dividend ada kok"

Technically, not wrong. But in the public market, there are two axes. Just look at the formula for Total Shareholder Return or TSR:

((P1 – P0) + D) / P0

P1 is latest price.
P0 is average price you paid.
D is dividend.

The company pays you a dividend. But the deviation between price movement and dividend is apples to oranges. Price can swing ±30%, while the dividend gives you just 5-10%. If the stock hit -30% drawdown, that dividend becomes irrelevant.

-

No matter how good your strategy, how solid your thesis, how impressive your RMSE, CI, or IR… eventually, you will be wrong. And.. you can be wrong all the time and still make life changing money. The only condition? You admit when you're wrong. Admit it that humans are DOGSHIT at investing. Dogshit at predicting where the market goes tomorrow. We're all stupid. Not just you and me, all of us. The longer you're in this market, the more you realize that "The market is RANDOM".

-

We ran a simulation, just on the JCI. Assumed we're betting on the index. Wrong 60% of the time, right 40%. In one scenario, when we were wrong, we did nothing. In the other, still wrong 60%, right 40%, but when we were wrong, we cut at 50% of the forecasted move.

*Example: you bet JCI will go up 5%. It goes down 5%. So when the loss hits -2.5%, you get out.*

The "stubborn and feeling like the smartest person in the room" strategy.. ofc smoked.

The "Okay, I'm wrong, move on, we're all dogshit at predicting price” strategy.. generated ridiculous CAGR. 19.89% from a single ticker… JCI.

So what's the catch? You can be wrong most of the time and still make life changing money. Your performance beats 99.99% of investors out there. Your alpha is unmatched. You make index returns look like SHIT.. all if you... admit when you're wrong.

Admitting you're wrong is just as important as picking the right company to buy. You take all these classes, paying 5 to 50 million for this or that, but when it's time to execute, you act like it's your first day in the market. "I'm right, the market is wrong" Stop attending expensive classes if you think you'll be right all the time. Useless.

-

And drawdown management *the thing most people take lightly* ends up destroying long term CAGR. Think of the market as binary: predictable vs unpredictable. When it's predictable, you play, fine, you make billions, maybe trillions, whatever. But when it's in the unpredictable phase, you still bet. And when you're wrong, you don't admit it. That's the crucial part. Why?? Because when the market becomes predictable again.. you're no longer playing with the same capital.

-

"Jangan cut loss"
"Kalau company-nya bagus, akan balik kok"

Not wrong... But we all know what it does to the CAGR.

[Rudiyanto @Rudiyanto_zh]

Bursa Efek Indonesia baru2 ini mengumumkan Saham Terkonsentrasi Tinggi atau High Concentration List - HCL

Spontan pasar heboh, karena ternyata tidak sesuai juga dengan data kepemilikan di atas 1%

Seperti apa HCL di mata Global Index Provider seperti MSCI dan FTSE?

[Footy Headlines @Footy_Headlines]

This must be a joke.

[Madrid Xtra @MadridXtra]

🚨 Thierry Henry: “Fede Valverde ALWAYS shines. Only thing is that people DON’T see that type of shine.

People don’t see the players who run. I can assure you, when you’re Trent and someone is defending with you, it’s easier to defend.

Not only did he score goals, he always technically shines. This is the type of guy who will adapt to any situation. He played RB, holding midfielder, LB, under the striker, CB. Only GK is left.

You have to give him A LOT of credit.”

[Chart Investor Saham IHSG,USA,Crypto @TradingDiary2]

Saya denger2 dari aliran fundamental dan aliran broksum bandar lukis chart? Ga guna baca chart?

Emangnya bandar ga lukis broksum dan LK/rasio fundamental? 😁😁

[Sarjana Eksu @SarjanaEksu]

Thanks for the shoutout.

But the best of the best is Mentorbaik.

Also, an emerging high-quality stock community filled with street-smart investors is PGK, led by @stockmapping

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/tjmbT5ytUN

[이사 dojjunn @dojjunn]

paling males liat kebijakaan penghapusan/pemutihan pajak/tax amnesty.

kenapa yg dapet insentif selalu yg bayarnya telat?

sementara yg rajin bayar,
gk pernah tuh gw denger dapet insentif pemotongan atau sesuatu.

dan yg paling gw gedek w pernah denger begini:
"ah bayar pajak motor mah ntar2 aja, toh ntar ada pemutihan pajak"

[Cheytax Management LLC @Cheytax_1]

'Simple bin bodoh' strategy ini works karena.. breadth market Indonesia jelek. Returnnya sangat concentrated, saham X bisa gain tahun ini 1000% while Y dan Z bisa flat atau bahkan turun..

Buat yang bisa concentrated ke X, tau caranya forecast siapa yang akan outperform, tentu jackpot.

Bagi yang kerja kantoran (atau memang tidak memantau market tiap menit atau jam) tapi mau investasi yang jadi masalah.. solusinya dengan.. beli semua XYZ equally, kalau market value X naik, trim dan belikan Y dan Z.

Apa Y dan Z setelah kita trim x akan naik juga? belum tentu.. tapi starting capital sebelum dan setelah rebalance sudah berbeda.. dalam kata lain ini seperti subsidi silang, gain dari X disedekahkan ke Y dan Z..

Arigato Mas!

[이사 dojjunn @dojjunn]

kebiasaan warga twwiter.
asbun tanpa cari tau lebih dalem dulu.

sukanya tolol tololin orang,
expertis bgt emng.. 👍

[Muhammad Habtry @mhabtry]

@stockmapping Apestor nyangkut potong timing berbuka dengan tidur @ApestorNyangkut @MYasfika @stockmapping

[Muhammad Habtry @mhabtry]

Terima kasih PGK dan semua mentor yang terlibat di dalamnya. Semoga menjadi semakin besar dan bermanfaat bagi orang banyak
#PGKStrikeAgain
#LawanJudolDenganInvestasi
#YPPA
“Yang Percaya-Percaya Aja”

[Muhammad Habtry @mhabtry]

Tahun 2025 memutuskan untuk belajar saham lebih mendalam, baik dari fundamental maupun teknikal. Salah satu cara adalah dengan ikut kelas PGK.
Memutuskan untuk ikut kelas karena yang ditawarkan adalah edukasi agar bisa analisa mandiri. Silabusnya pun jelas.

[Alda | #LawanJudolDenganInvestasi @stockmapping]

10 materi pertemuan akhirnya tuntas, dengan segala apapun yg diusahakan tim PGK semoga dapat hasil yg maksimal.

Kami terus mendengar kritik, saran dan masukan teman2. Berusaha lebih baik ke depannya.

Kalau ada kurang, tim PGK meminta maaf sebesar2nya.

Review dipersilahkan.

[Muhammad Habtry @mhabtry]

Materi lain yang sangat penting adalah money flow, rotasi sektor, money management, dll. Banyak ilmu jalanan juga yang didapat dari mentor-mentor yang berpengalaman bertahun-tahun di saham Indo yang sulit didapatkan di tempat lain